Potential for Russia Escalating War Continues

Potential for Russia Escalating War Continues

Executive Summary:

• Escalation between Russia and the West is becoming more likely as Russia’s war against Ukraine continues. The potential of a new front in Ukraine, with troops possibly coming south from Belarus, and hybrid threats from Russia against Europe continue to rise.
• An expanded military threat will become more likely following Russia’s upcoming Duma elections on September 18–20, if Russian President Vladimir Putin calls for a mobilization.
• Russia appears to be ramping up its hybrid attacks, most recently in Germany after reports of an armed drone near the Leipzig/Halle airport and in Poland after a thwarted assassination attempt against a Ukrainian rapper.

The potential of wider conflict between Russia and the West, or the opening of a new front in Ukraine—with troops possibly coming south from Belarus in a second attempt to take Kyiv—has been gaining speculation for a while now. Such guesses, including a rumored new and full mobilization after Russia’s State Duma elections on September 18–20, do not necessarily augur a new massive conflict in Europe (see EDM, June 23). Escalation seems all but a foregone conclusion in Russia’s war against Ukraine, but how the war may escalate remains debatable.

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) substantially outweighs Russia militarily, helped by unity of command. A new mass kinetic conflict becomes more practical after the Duma elections, with the possibility of Russian President Vladimir Putin calling for a mobilization. While elections do not really matter in Putin’s system, as the results will be whatever the Kremlin wants them to be, Moscow prefers not to falsify data too much for fear of provoking another round of mass protests similar to the 2011–2013 Bolotnaya protests (see EDM, May 7, 2012). This is arguably the main reason Kremlin spin doctors decided to prevent the liberal opposition party Yabloko, which campaigned on a platform of peace, from running in this year’s elections (Meduza, August 18). As a result, any kinetic move is expected to come after the elections so the public cannot register their opposition in any form.

Rumors of a new mobilization are being taken seriously enough that some human rights defenders have prepared guides for conscripts and mobilized reservists on how to refuse to serve (Meduza, August 14). Similarly, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov gave an interview to Russian news outlet Vesti, in which he threatened the United Kingdom for the “direct participation of British missile forces” in an August 17 strike on Russia (Vesti, August 18). Lavrov said he will “feel sorry for Britain” if it continues aiding Ukraine (Vedomosti, August 18). The ostensible trigger for such a rebuke was reporting that U.K.-made drones from the Callen-Lenz brand of BAE Systems had been supplied to Ukraine for at least six months and used to attack refineries in Volgograd and Yaroslavl (United24 Media, August 16).

Putin has set his sights on ending NATO’s influence in Europe. One of Moscow’s public demands to avert war in 2021 was that NATO members not deploy troops to Eastern Europe (Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, December 17, 2021). As goals evolve during war, so too has this demand. Putin allegedly set a goal in 2025 of achieving “the collapse of NATO and the European Union from within” by the end of 2026, with one possible way of doing so through Moldova (Meduza, August 14). Russia trained forces in Serbia to interfere in the September 2025 elections in Moldova and hoped to use the country as a springboard for further hybrid attacks against the West (see EDM, September 25, 2025). Reportedly, Orthodox priests were also given money to buy the votes of pensioners in favor of the pro-Moscow candidate (Center for Countering Disinformation, September 1, 2025). Moldovan President Maia Sandu’s victory and the country’s continued path toward integration with the European Union can be attributed, in part, to the Moldovan security forces, which prevented Kremlin operatives from acting freely. The threat of new hybrid attacks in Europe, however, is still serious.

This is an example of Russia’s use of hybrid attacks as a form of escalation. The Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) has warned European countries of possible Russian hybrid attacks in Europe, most probably in Poland or the Baltic, with the aim of re-connecting to the exclave of Kaliningrad (Gordon.ua, August 13). Some European officials do not rule out the possibility that the act of preparing for war was itself a hybrid psyops move designed to spread panic in the target countries. This may take the form of a false-flag attack on infrastructure in Latvia or Poland. In Germany, the Leipzig/Halle airport, which is used for NATO logistics and is a European hub for Ukrainian Antonov Airlines, suspended flights temporarily after detecting an armed drone near a plane (Parlament.ua, August 13). Markus Reisner, an Austrian colonel, said in an interview with German newspaper Welt that the drone discovery represented a “completely new level of threat” and, while it is impossible to be sure of who sent it, the most likely culprit (and beneficiary) is Moscow. He went on to say that while a direct military clash between Moscow and the West is unlikely, the threat of information chaos is imminent and real. In this case, “1,000 Internet trolls in our societies are more effective than 100,000 heavily armed soldiers” (Welt, August 17).

Another example of a recent Russian hybrid attack occurred in Poland. Polish police thwarted an attempt to kill Ukrainian rapper Albert Vasiliyev, who goes by the name of Kyivstoner. The would-be assassin was a refugee from the Donbas who was acting on the orders of the Russian security forces, according to the Polish special forces. The Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) alleges Vasilyev was involved in a planned “massive attack” on Moscow with 35 drones and had been sending money to the Ukrainian army (Meduza, August 14). These recent actions from Moscow suggest the Kremlin is likely to escalate the war, with the only remaining question being how it will do so.