Airplane Crash Exposes Flaws in Baku-Moscow Relations

Executive Summary:

• On December 25, 2024, Azerbaijan Airlines Flight J2-8243, planned to fly from Baku to Grozny, Chechnya, crashed near Aktau, Kazakhstan, after a Russian surface-to-air missile exploded near the aircraft mid-flight.
• The incident has strained Azerbaijan-Russian relations. Azerbaijani officials criticized Moscow’s denial, lack of transparency, and open airspace amid tensions, leading President Ilham Aliyev to demand formal acknowledgment and accountability for those responsible.
• The Azerbaijani Airlines plane crash has exposed significant vulnerabilities in Baku’s relationship with Moscow and fueled resentment against Russia in Azerbaijani society.

On December 25, Azerbaijan ended 2024 in nationwide sorrow and resentment following the crash of Azerbaijan Airlines Flight J2-8243 near Aktau, Kazakhstan. The Embraer 190 aircraft, carrying 67 passengers from Baku to Grozny, Chechnya, attempted an emergency landing but tragically crashed. Among those aboard were Azerbaijani, Russian, Kazakh, and Kyrgyz nationals. While 29 people survived, 38, including two pilots and a flight attendant, lost their lives (Trend.az, December 26, 2024). Initial reports attributed the crash to a collision with a flock of birds, but this theory was soon refuted when parts of the aircraft were found to bear shrapnel marks (Azernews.az, December 25, 2024). The following day, Azerbaijani officials revealed that the crash was caused by a Russian surface-to-air missile, which exploded near the aircraft mid-flight, with shrapnel injuring passengers and crew (Anews.tv, December 26, 2024). This incident has strained Azerbaijan-Russia relations, as Moscow refused to accept responsibility for the tragedy.

The crash occurred amid heightened regional tensions, with Ukrainian drone strikes targeting parts of the North Caucasus, including Chechnya. Some observers, including a U.S. official, suggested that Russian air defense units may have mistakenly fired on the commercial airliner, believing it to be a long-range Ukrainian attack drone (CNN, December 28, 2024). Khamzat Kadyrov, the head of the Chechen Security Council and Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov’s nephew, confirmed a drone attack on Grozny on the morning of December 25, stating that it resulted in no casualties or damage (Anews.tv, December 26, 2024). Despite being aware of these attacks, Russia had not closed its airspace to civilian aircraft—a decision that drew sharp criticism from the Azerbaijani government. “This clearly indicates the presence of serious criminal issues,” President Ilham Aliyev said during his meeting with the families of crew members killed in a plane crash and surviving flight attendants on January 6 (President.az, January 6).

The damaged aircraft was ultimately forced to fly across the Caspian Sea to make an emergency landing in Aktau, Kazakhstan, a decision that has raised serious questions in Azerbaijan. Speaking to local media on December 29, Aliyev questioned why the plane was not directed to closer, safer airports such as Mineralnye Vody or Makhachkala, instead of undertaking the high-risk journey to Aktau (President.az, December 29, 2024). During a phone call with Aliyev on December 28, Russian President Vladimir Putin explained that Russia could not allow the airplane to land because the cities in the region were under Ukrainian drone attacks (Kremlin.ru, December 28, 2024). This has been met with skepticism in Baku. Aliyev stated that Azerbaijan awaits the results of an investigation to understand why the aircraft could not land closer to its initial destination. “Some believe the plane was deliberately diverted by ground handling services in Grozny because it was already out of control, with a high probability of crashing into the sea. If this were the case, the cover-up attempts would have been successful, and the so-called bird theory would have been presented as the most plausible explanation,” Aliyev said (President.az, December 29, 2024). His statements underscored Azerbaijan’s dissatisfaction with Russia’s handling of the crisis, particularly Moscow’s initial silence and the promotion of implausible theories about the crash.

The response of Chechen officials further fueled outrage in Azerbaijan. On December 26, Ramzan Kadyrov awarded Khamzat Kadyrov the medal “For Services to the Chechen Republic” (Turan.az, December 26, 2024). Notably, Khamzat Kadyrov had proudly announced on December 25 that all drones over Chechnya had been successfully intercepted. Azerbaijani media condemned this as insensitive, highlighting that among the intercepted “drones” was the passenger plane carrying 67 individuals (Turan.az, December 26, 2024).

During an interview on December 29, Aliyev condemned Russian attempts to attribute the incident to a collision with birds or an onboard gas cylinder explosion, labeling these theories as “foolish and dishonest.” He demanded transparency, accountability, and compensation from Russia, outlining Azerbaijan’s conditions: a formal apology from Russia; acknowledgment of guilt; punishment of those responsible; and compensation for the Azerbaijani state, injured passengers, and crew (President.az, December 29, 2024).

Putin apologized to his Azerbaijani counterpart “for the fact that the incident happened in Russian airspace”—without taking the blame for the crash (Kremlin.ru, December 28, 2024). Nevertheless, during an interview the next day, Aliyev said that the first demand of the Azerbaijani side (i.e., a formal apology) was fulfilled. He emphasized, however, that Azerbaijan expected more than vague expressions of regret stressing the importance of the other three demands. The Azerbaijani government had earlier rejected Ramzan Kadyrov’s offer of financial assistance, insisting instead on an official apology and reparations, not assistance (Trend.az, December 27).

Azerbaijan’s push for an impartial investigation led to the formation of a team including international experts, representatives from the aircraft manufacturer Embraer, and officials from Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Russia. Baku rejected an investigation by the Interstate Aviation Committee (IAC) of the Commonwealth of Independent States, initially proposed by Russia. It cited concerns about potential bias due to the IAC’s composition, which includes predominantly Russian citizens (Apa.az, December 29, 2024).

The crash of the Azerbaijani Airlines flight has exposed significant vulnerabilities in Baku’s relationship with Moscow and fueled resentment against Russia in the Azerbaijani society. Russia’s initial response—marked by denial and delays—has further eroded trust. Aliyev noted that immediate transparency and accountability after the crash could have mitigated the fallout (President.az, December 29, 2024). Moscow’s handling of the crisis, however, deepened skepticism in Baku about its reliability as a partner. While Azerbaijan will likely continue to balance its ties with Russia, this event underscores the certain limitations of their partnership.