Settlement of the Russian-Ukrainian Conflict: Ambitions and Realities

Executive Summary:

• Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine was based on flawed assumptions, such as expecting Ukrainian surrender and Western non-interference. These miscalculations have backfired, as Ukraine’s determined resistance and commitment to sovereignty, as well as support from Western partners, have thwarted the Kremlin’s original plans.

• The conflict has evolved into a technological war, where success is determined by equipment quality, situational awareness, and precision strike capabilities rather than sheer numbers. Ukraine is focused on maintaining technological superiority through advanced weapons, drones, and electronic warfare.
• Any peace negotiations must recognize Ukraine’s territorial integrity, with continued military and economic support from international partners. These factors are vital for ensuring Ukraine’s territorial integrity, strengthening its defense capabilities, and maintaining its resistance against Russian aggression.

As the third anniversary of the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine approaches on February 24, discussions on options for resolving this conflict have intensified. Most recently, U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed that negotiations on ending Russia’s war against Ukraine would begin and that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy would be informed of the conversation (Kyiv Independent, February 12). Zelenskyy soon posted that he spoke with Trump and that Ukraine “believe[s] that America’s strength, together with Ukraine and all our partners, is enough to push Russia to peace” (President of Ukraine, February 12).

At the same time, not all politicians and experts understand the nature, background, dynamics, and differences of Russia’s war against Ukraine from other conflicts that have occurred over the last century. Putin publicly defined the goals of the “special military operation,” the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, in February 2022  as “the protection of the residents of Donbas, the demilitarization, and denazification of Ukraine” (President of Russia, February 24, 2022).

This pseudo-rhetoric concealed the main goal of restoring the Russian Empire with the return of lost territories (President of Russia, July 12, 2021). Without Ukraine, this project is doomed to be a failure. As Zbigniew Brzezinski, National Security Adviser to U.S. President Jimmy Carter, once said, “Without Ukraine, Russia ceases to be an empire, but with Ukraine suborned and then subordinated, Russia automatically becomes an empire” (Foreign Affairs, March 1, 1994). It is clear that Putin made the following false assumptions when deciding  to invade Ukraine in 2022:

1. The Russian contract army held a total superiority over the Ukrainian one in terms of both the number of personnel and weapons, as well as the level of training and motivation.
2. The Ukrainian army would not be loyal to the “nationalist” government in Kyiv and would not offer significant resistance.
3. The population of Ukraine viewed Russia positively and would even welcome Russian soldiers.
4. The political leadership of Ukraine would flee abroad.
5. Against the background of the collapse of the government in Ukraine, Western partners would choose a policy of non-interference.
6. The so-called “special military operation” would end quickly.

These assumptions did not reflect the reality in Ukraine and demonstrated that the Russian leadership did not understand the nature of Ukrainian society and its readiness to resist. These factors, together with a motivated and experienced army, were decisive in countering Russian forces in the first months of the aggression. Ukrainians’ ability to resist the invasion and their determination to defeat Russian forces in the country contributed to the adoption of political decisions on immediate support for Ukraine by European and U.S. partners.

Putin, therefore, became a victim of his own propaganda and the Kremlin’s criminally corrupt system. This inability to objectively assess the situation in Ukraine has inevitably led to new strategic miscalculations (The Washington Post, August 19, 2022).

Today, freezing the conflict is no longer in Putin’s interests. To justify his aggression and maintain power, he needs victory and the elimination of Ukraine as an independent state from the former Russian Empire. The preservation of Ukraine as an independent democratic country, even with the loss of certain territories, is a direct threat to the existence of the Moscow regime.

Meanwhile, the Russian economy has already exhausted its reserves and is unable to maintain military spending at the current level (see EDM, February 12, 2024; Kyiv School of Economics, January 28; Ukrainska Pravda, February 8). Stocks of Soviet legacy weapons are running out (see EDM, March 14, 2024; Kyiv Independent, January 30). The rate of production of new weapons does not correspond to the losses at the front (see EDM, Junes 27, November 4, 2024). The pace of implementation of new technological solutions is limited. This is influenced by sanctions, corruption, and an overly centralized system of government.

The number of applicants who are ready to sign a contract with the Russian army is rapidly decreasing (see EDM, February 10). Putin considers the option of declaring mobilization politically dangerous (see EDM, September 18, 2023, September 19, 2024; RBC-Ukraine, September 19, 2024). Russia still maintains superiority in air and missile systems, but with the entry into Ukraine of modern Western aviation (F-16, Mirage 2000) and the mass production of high-precision missile systems of Ukrainian origin, Moscow will gradually lose these levers (see EDM, October 8, 16, 2024; Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, February 13).

At the same time, the conflict in Ukraine initiated a revolutionary transformation of the ways and methods of modern warfare. Classic, old-fashioned fighting is gradually turning into a technological confrontation, in which Russia will inevitably lose its advantage in population and stockpiles of old weapons (The New Voice of Ukraine, October 21, 2024; Svidomi, December 6, 2024).

The introduction of new technologies (drones, electronic warfare, artificial intelligence, information processing systems) in the military sphere has created so-called “gray zones” on the ground where the presence of personnel and equipment is too risky or impossible at all. This makes the tactics of maneuver warfare of the twentieth century, both defensive and offensive, irrelevant and allows avoiding direct contact of personnel with the enemy.

In today’s conflict, battlefield success is no longer determined by  the number of infantry, but rather by its quality, equipment, and integration with situational awareness systems and means of precision strike. In this context, the issue of mobilization, which is still raised by partners, is no longer critical and needs to be reassessed. The need is not in the number of personnel, but in specialists who are able to master and correctly apply new technologies for conducting combat operations. Ensuring technological superiority over the enemy is of vital importance for Ukraine. This includes the following domains:

1. Situational awareness. This means knowing the disposition of the enemy, down to the soldier, at an operational depth of up to 200 kilometers (124 miles). This involves the use of modern optical, electromagnetic, acoustic, and other sensors integrated with unmanned systems.
2. Precision strike capability.  It is necessary to have a set of high-precision means (missiles, drones, electronic warfare, etc.) to destroy the enemy, down to the soldier, at an operational depth of up to 200 kilometers (124 miles).
3. Force protection. Ukraine must protect its people, equipment, and infrastructure from the offensive mechanisms of the enemy.

Ukrainians, with the support of their partners, are diligently working to ensure technological superiority in these areas to thereby guarantee the defeat of the enemy. Considering the above, any options for settling Russia’s war in Ukraine must take into account the following realities:

1. Ukrainian civil society and the military will not agree to freeze the conflict and are determined to return the occupied territories to Ukraine.
2. Any security guarantees must include the territorial integrity of Ukraine.
3. The issue of reducing the mobilization age is not relevant under the condition of ensuring Ukraine’s technological advantage in matters of situational awareness, long-range precision strike capability, and the protection of personnel, equipment, and infrastructure.
4. In these conditions, the continuation of military-technical and economic support of Ukraine from partners, the strengthening of sanctions against the Russian economy, and the provision of access to Ukraine to modern defense technologies and components are of critical importance.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has highlighted the Kremlin’s miscalculations and the strength of Ukraine’s resistance. Despite Putin’s assumptions, Ukrainian civil society and the military have proven determined to defend their sovereignty and push back against Russian aggression. To achieve a lasting peace, it is crucial for Ukraine to continue receiving support from international partners, with a focus on technological superiority and military capabilities to safeguard its future.