Georgian Dream Consolidates Power Following Municipal Elections

Executive Summary:

• The ruling Georgian Dream party won an overwhelming victory in Georgia’s October 4 municipal elections, capturing all 64 mayoral seats amid an opposition boycott, low voter turnout, and minimal international monitoring presence.
• Critics allege the elections were manipulated to fabricate a competitive image through “technical opposition” parties aligned with Georgian Dream, while genuine opposition movements faced repression, arrests, and exclusion under restrictive new laws.
• Following the failed opposition protests, Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze claimed the protests were orchestrated by foreign intelligence services, fostering an argument for potentially banning opposition parties and consolidating Georgian Dream’s power.

On October 4, local government elections were held in Georgia, with 12 political parties participating (Radio Tavisupleba, September 10). As expected, the ruling Georgian Dream party, which controls power at the central level, won an absolute majority in all 64 municipalities. Georgian Dream representatives were elected as the mayors of all municipalities, and the party also won an absolute majority of seats in the municipal assemblies (sakrebulo).  According to the Central Election Commission, 81.7 percent of voters (1,104,545 votes) cast their ballots for Georgian Dream nationwide (Georgian Central Election Commission, October 4; Ekho Kavkaza, October 5). This was made possible in part by at least nine influential opposition parties boycotting the elections (Civil Georgia, October 2).

To artificially simulate a competitive election campaign, Georgian Dream satellite parties, as well as two opposition parties—The Strong Georgia – Lelo party and Gakharia For Georgia party—participated in the elections, which led to criticism from the opposition (see EDM, July 16). Some suspect that these two small parties are attempting to exploit the country’s political crisis, especially given the authorities’ plans to legislate a ban on all major opposition parties (see EDM, April 15). This would transform these two parties into the sole opposition—something they would otherwise have been unable to achieve in a competitive environment. Both parties have experience cooperating with Georgian Dream. The leader of Gakharia For Georgia, Giorgi Gakharia, served as prime minister under Georgian Dream from 2019 to 2021 (see EDM, September 16, 2019).

Georgian Dream has now been able to legitimize the elections and create a so-called “technical opposition” in municipal assemblies. The Russian political system has a similar arrangement, where a formal opposition exists without any real power. The Strong Georgia – Lelo party came in second place in Georgia with 90,790 votes (6.7 percent). Gakharia for Georgia came in third with 49,815 votes (3.7 percent) (Georgian Central Election Commission, October 4; Ekho Kavkaza, October 5). On October 4, the opposition chose two different strategies. The Strong Georgia – Lelo party and Gakharia For Georgia, although they, along with other parties, declared the 2024 parliamentary elections illegitimate, allegedly decided to use the municipal elections as a means to remove Georgian Dream from power (see EDM, October 28, 2024). Another section of the opposition chose the path of revolution and boycott. Both strategies failed, however, due to incompetence and a lack of organization.

On October 4, the main opposition, led by the Initiative Group, a group led by Paata Burchuladze, a world-famous opera singer and founder of the anti-government civil movement “Rusavteli Avenue,” organized a peaceful demonstration attended by thousands. The organizers envisioned a peaceful revolution aimed at overthrowing the current government. The opposition’s attempt, however, failed. After the rally, participants, who had gathered in front of the parliament building, read a declaration on the transfer of power to the people and attempted to march on the nearby presidential palace. Police subsequently used force against them (Interpressnews, October 4; YouTube/@tvpirveli1, October 4).

The demonstration was dispersed, and all organizers on the organizing committee were arrested that same night. On October 5, the Georgian State Security Service (SSSG) reported the discovery of “a large quantity of firearms, ammunition, and explosives with a detonator hidden in a forest near the capital city of Tbilisi” (SSSG, October 4). According to the SSSG, a Georgian citizen—who has already been arrested—purchased a large quantity of firearms, ammunition, and explosives on the instructions of a Georgian representative of one of the military units operating in Ukraine. The SSSG claims that acts of sabotage were planned in Tbilisi on October 4 (SSSG, October 4).

In most municipalities, Georgian Dream candidates faced no competition for mayor. The results of these elections were in keeping with the best Soviet traditions. In at least 25 of the 64 electoral districts, the Georgian Dream mayoral candidates received 100 percent of the votes (Tabula.ge, October 4). A total of 1,438,116 citizens participated in the elections, representing 40.93 percent of all registered voters in the country. This was the lowest voter turnout in Georgia’s electoral history (Netgazeti, October 4).

One of Georgian Dream’s most influential leaders and simultaneously one of the most anti-Western politicians, incumbent Tbilisi Mayor Kakha Kaladze, was elected for the third time with 71.5 percent of the vote (214,872 voters). In 2017, when he ran for mayor for the first time and his approval ratings were at their peak, he received 204,061 votes (Ekho Kavkaza, October 4). The rise in votes amid his declining popularity raises doubts about the fairness of the recent municipal elections.

Many citizens, heeding the calls of the main opposition parties, refused to vote. There were practically no local and foreign observers present at the elections, or only a minimal number of them. Only 81 international observers from 28 organizations participated in the municipal elections, whereas more than 1,000 foreign observers were present at the previous local self-government elections in 2021 (Radio Tavisupleba, October 4). The majority of foreign observers represented post-Soviet authoritarian countries, as well as states in Africa and the Middle East. According to local media reports, 27 observation organizations with over 7,000 observers were registered with the Central Election Commission, most of whom were affiliated with Georgian Dream (Radio Tavisupleba, October 4).

Georgian Dream ensured that even the Organization of Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), which traditionally monitors elections in Georgia, was absent this time. Initially, the government simply stated that the OSCE had no practice in monitoring local elections and therefore declined to invite them. Four weeks before the elections, however, Georgian Dream suddenly decided to invite the OSCE, which declined due to a lack of time to prepare (Civil Georgia, September 9). Local observers were also left without a role due to new laws on foreign influence and the adoption of the “Foreign Influence Transparency Law,” which effectively rendered most Georgian non-governmental organizations (NGO) ineffective just before the elections (see EDM, September 30).

Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze described the mass demonstration in Tbilisi and the subsequent attempt to seize the presidential palace as an action orchestrated by foreign intelligence services, referring to EU countries and the United States (Civil Georgia, October 5). Kobakhidze did not directly mention the United States, but just a few days earlier, on October 2, the new head of the SSSG and Kobakhidze’s close ally, Mamuka Mdinaradze, accused the U.S. Embassy in Thailand of funding radical groups seeking to overthrow the Georgian government (Formula News, October 2).

Kobakhidze promised to punish all those responsible, effectively announcing further repression. Virtually all the key leaders of influential parties were already in prison. Georgia’s fifth president, Salome Zourabichvili, however, described the unrest in Tbilisi and the attempted seizure of the Presidential Palace as a failed Russian special operation. “They set a trap of sorts, which consisted of breaking into the Presidential Palace,” she stated (Gruzia Online, October 5).

Following this, Kobakhidze, on the second day after the failed revolution and victory in the municipal elections, stated that the European Union must accept that Georgian Dream will rule the country for a long time. He said it would be pragmatic for the European Union to reset relations with Georgia’s ruling party (Business Media, October 4).

Georgian Dream’s victory in the local elections and the failure of the revolution were immediately commented on by the Kremlin’s chief ideologist, Alexander Dugin. He wrote on VKontakte, “Georgia is the only country in the South Caucasus where things have been better, not worse, for us lately” (VKontakte/duginag, October 4). In a separate post, he wrote:

The globalists see how they are managing to outmaneuver us in the post-Soviet space, and here, Georgia clearly defies their trend. It is completely unwilling to fight Russia, which means it is the perfect time to stage a color revolution there. We desperately need a success story right now. In the post-Soviet space and beyond (VKontakte/duginag, October 4).

Dugin is repeating Georgian Dream’s rhetoric about a supposedly externally organized revolution.

This provocation provided Georgian Dream with unprecedented grounds to justify its long-standing narrative that certain forces are allegedly attempting to overthrow the constitutional order by force (see EDM, January 13, April 9). Georgian Dream has a compelling argument for potentially banning several opposition parties and consolidating its power, even amid record-low public support.