Iran’s Decision to Expel Refugees May Destabilize Western Afghanistan

Publication: Terrorism Focus Volume: 4 Issue: 13

On May 2, the Iranian Interior Ministry announced that Tehran had expelled 50,000 Afghan refugees during the previous 10 days, in a move reportedly aimed at repatriating one million unregistered Afghans by the start of 2008 (Azadi Radio, May 2). The Afghan publication Eqtedar Weekly warned on May 2 that the pressure exerted during the expulsion of Afghans from Iran, aside from being inhumane and illegal, will negatively affect Afghanistan at a time when the Hamid Karzai administration already faces difficult security and economic challenges on its borders. Sending in such a large population of poor refugees may also prove to be a fertile recruitment opportunity for criminal and insurgent elements. Additionally, the expulsion of Afghan refugees from Iran raises questions about the current policy of the Islamic Republic toward the future of Afghanistan.

Inside Afghanistan, media and political circles are considering two possible motivations behind Iran’s expulsion of the refugees. First and foremost, the consecutive sanctions encumbering Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s administration have created internal economic challenges such as increased inflation and unemployment that are resulting in the growing dissatisfaction of the Iranian public (Afghanistan Daily, May 1). Countering these serious challenges, the government perhaps considers the deportation of one million Afghan refugees as a means of increasing the opportunities of employment for Iranian citizens. The millions who voted for Ahmadinejad, for example, were from the lower classes of society who believed in his promises to use oil money for the betterment of all Iranians. The Iranian officials’ decision to expel the refugees was made primarily to increase public opinion of the administration’s performance as there is a consensus among the poor and lower classes in Iran that the Afghan refugees are a big source of Iran’s problems (Kabul Press, April 22). As part of the expulsion campaigns, authoritarian Iranian publications, like Kayhan Daily, have promoted the notion that the refugees are the root of most problems facing Iran today, most notably drug trafficking across the Iranian border.

The second possible motive for expelling the Afghans follows the reasoning that while coalition forces announced the interception of Iranian-made weapons in southern Afghanistan and condemned the Iranians’ attempt to make contact with the Taliban, Iran has pushed for the mass expulsion of refugees in an effort to show that it can indirectly put pressure on the United States. “The way Iran exerts indirect pressure on the United States,” read one Afghan paper, “is that Iran knows with the return of Afghan refugees to Afghanistan, the economic crisis there will increase; the side effects will affect the Afghan government and thus the United States will also be affected” (Weesa Daily, May 5).

The flow of refugees across the border could have a highly destabilizing effect on Afghanistan. Of the one million refugees who are due to be repatriated, only 50,000 have entered Afghanistan so far, drawing warnings from officials of a humanitarian crisis in the border regions. A surge in repatriated refugees will probably increase unemployment in Afghanistan, which will result in weakening the central government by strengthening drug lords and anti-government elements who may be able to tap into this new pool of potential recruits.

Afghan Foreign Minister Rangeen Spanta has asked Iran to cease the expulsions since they are exacerbating instability in Afghanistan. “It’s very unfortunate that, on one hand, Iran is helping Afghanistan with reconstruction in order to build stability but, on the other hand, is expelling the Afghans en mass. This causes instability for Afghanistan. We are not able to provide the thousands of returning refugees with a place inside Afghanistan” (Radio Azadi, May 3). If Iran continues with the expulsions, the Karzai government will be pressed to integrate the refugees before they become victims of recruitment by anti-government militants and criminal groups.