Andrew Wilson is Professor in Ukrainian Studies at University College London ([email protected]), and a Senior Policy Fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ecfr.eu). His most recent book Ukraine Crisis: What the West Needs to Know was published by Yale University Press in 2014. A fourth, updated, edition of The Ukrainians: Unexpected Nation was published in 2015. His other books include Belarus: The Last European Dictatorship (2011), Ukraine’s Orange Revolution (2005) and Virtual Politics: Faking Democracy in the Post-Soviet World (2005).
Executive Summary Speculation that Belarus might be the next flash-point for tensions with Russia has recurred periodically since the war in Ukraine began in 2014. The latest scenario sees Russia