by Roman Kupchinsky
The German Ministry of Defense has once again voiced its opposition to the proposed route of Gazprom’s major gas pipeline project- the Nord Stream pipeline. The Bundeswehr reservations were recently presented to the German parliament’s committee on national defense, in which the Defense Ministry stated that the route was too close to the island of Rugen where large scale German naval maneuvers are held.
The news of this renewed opposition to Nord Stream came on the same day that German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeyer arrived in Moscow for talks with Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin.
In the past Steinmeyer had been a firm supporter of Nord Stream. According to Jamestown senior fellow Vlad Socor, “The Russo-German pipeline is not a European project in any sense. Interested parties ranging from the Kremlin and Gazprom to German business groups and elements in the German government portray this project as a European one. German Minister of Foreign Affairs Frank-Walter Steinmeyer used this argument when visiting Estonia.”
However this month, Steinmeyer is challenging German Chancellor Angela Merkel in the upcoming election and is reluctant to whitewash Nord Stream which has become a controversial issue for many German voters. As the candidate from the SPD, once headed by former chancellor Gerhard Schroeder, a key executive in the Nord Stream consortium, Steinmeyer is now caught in a vicious political battle. The Bundeswehr report tempered his support of Nord Stream to the great displeasure of the Russian leadership. Steinmeyer’s position is also weakened by the fact that the head of the Nord Stream Consortium office in Switzerland is Mathias Warnig, a former intelligence officer for the East German security service, the hated Stasi.
Responding to the German military report, the deputy CEO of Gazprom, Alexander Medvedev stated: “Europe must decide how to resolve this situation. If Europe does not want our gas, we will find the means to sell it elsewhere.”
Medvedev, in what might be seen as a threat to the EU, once again raised the specter of Gazprom diverting gas from European markets and selling it as LNG to the U.S. and Canadian markets. Bloomberg quoted the Gazprom official on June 10, 2009: “Gazprom is seeking as much as 10 percent of the U.S. gas market by 2020, after two Arctic liquefied natural gas projects start producing, deputy CEO Alexander Medvedev told reporters Tuesday.”
“The volume which we have right now is just 0.5 percent of natural gas consumption of the United States, but with gas out of Shtokman and maybe Yamal LNG our share in the U.S. and Canadian markets would go up between 5 and 10 percent,” Medvedev said.
Many U.S. energy analysts view this as an empty threat. LNG is still a tiny source of gas supplies to the U.S. and will remain such for years to come. Besides, Russian LNG will face fierce competition from Qatar and Nigeria, not to mention Trinidad and Tabago, the main supplier of LNG to the U.S.
Is the Nord Stream pipeline doomed? Much will depend on the upcoming German elections and on the continuing opposition to Nord Stream from Poland and the Baltic states. But the end game will take place in the near future and a showdown between Gazprom and Germany is in the works.