March 2013 Newsletter

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March 2013
The Jamestown Foundation Leadership: Glen E. Howard, President
At a Glance

Upcoming Events and Conferences

Summary of Recent Events

Hill Testimony: Islamist Militant Threats to Eurasia

Media Appearances

Support Jamestown

Jamestown Staff & Fellows
Editor, China Brief
Program Associate
Program Associate/Events Coordinator
Managing Editor of Global Terrorism Analysis
Director of Programs for the Balkans, Caucasus & Central Asia
Senior Fellow – China Program
Senior Fellow – Eurasia Program
Senior Fellow
Senior Fellow – Eurasia Program
Senior Fellow
Upcoming Events and Conferences

April 5 – The United Nations and the Armenia-Azerbaijan Conflict: Back to the Basics

 This April marks the 20th anniversary of the first UN Security Council resolution on the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict—UNSC Resolution 822. This resolution called for a cessation of hostilities and the withdrawal of occupying forces from the Kelbajar district of Azerbaijan following its occupation on April 3, 1993. In memory of this and the following three UNSC resolutions pertaining to the conflict, The Jamestown Foundation is organizing an event to highlight the continuing importance of

UN involvement and the need to resolve this dispute due to the lack of progress over many years by the OSCE and other multilateral organizations.

*To register for the Azerbaijan Event please click here.

April 10 – The War for Northern Mali: Military Intervention and the Salafi-Jihadist State

When what began as the latest in a string of Tuareg uprisings in northern Mali was usurped by radical Islamist movements last year, the international community witnessed what it had feared for many years – the creation of a Salafi-Jihadist state that could serve as a safe haven and operational base for al-Qaeda-connected terrorists and narco-traffickers. As the world watched, Islamist gunmen imposed their own version of Shari’a on those who were unable to flee to neighboring countries, destroyed much of the region’s important Islamic heritage and carried out brutal punishments on those who defied their new order. As the Islamists began to push south in

January, Paris decided it was time to launch a military intervention to eliminate this threat to a former colony with long-standing ties to France. This intervention quickly evolved into a multi-national operation to provide the French forces in northern Mali with military, logistical and surveillance assistance. 

As combat operations continue, the Jamestown Foundation is pleased to present a discussion of three important aspects of the French-led military intervention. Jamestown’s Dr. Andrew McGregor will discuss the tribal aspects of the war in Mali, Colonel Patrick de Vathaire will turn his considerable military experience to an examination of the response of the French forces to the crisis in Mali and M. Jean-François Pactet will analyze the political dimensions of the intervention. This event comes at a critical time as the struggle for northern Mali begins to present important implications for energy security, international military cooperation, regional security

structures and counter-terrorism efforts.

To register for the Mali Conference please Click here.

April 25 – Militant Movements in North Africa After the Arab Spring

Continuing instability in North Africa resulting from the Arab Spring has created an arc of crisis that has toppled long-standing governments in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya in the past two years. The collapse of these regimes has led to a rise in militant movements across the region, resulting in an attack on a U.S. diplomatic mission in Benghazi, Libya, on September 11, 2012, followed a year later by the January 25 takeover of the In-Aménas refinery that resulted in the deaths of dozens of Western hostages by the al-Qaeda offshoot Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM). 

The proliferation of weapons from arms depots in Libya have strengthened militant groups across the region, setting the stage for French military intervention in Mali and the emergence of militant activities from Sinai to the Sahel. Understanding the dynamics of these militant movements in North Africa and the Sahel as well as the threats they pose to regime stability from Algeria to Egypt, is at the forefront of Western policymakers’ minds as they struggle to grasp the changes unfolding in Africa.
On April 25, The Jamestown Foundation will host an event entitled “Militant Movements in North Africa After the Arab Spring.” The event will include panels of regional experts and keynote speakers who will discuss instability and the threats posed by militant groups in Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Mauritania and Tunisia.
More information about the event will be available on our website soon.
Summary of Recent Events
2013 China Defense and Security Conference

On February 28, The Jamestown Foundation hosted its Third Annual China Defense and Security Conference. Held in Washington, DC, the conference brought together a range of experts on China’s foreign policy, military, internal security and defense industry to offer a comprehensive discussion of Chinese security issues. A DVD of the all-day event is available for sale on the Jamestown website. 

Jamestown board member Admiral Timothy Keating (USN, Ret.) opened the conference with an informal exercise to illustrate the pressures U.S. military officers face when operating on China’s maritime periphery. The potential for any incident made under such pressure to become an international incident, like the USNS Impeccable incident in 2009, illustrated the need to keep engaging the Chinese. Keating believed the risks of not engaging the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) outweighed the frustrations of doing so. 

The first panel of the day explored China’s transitions, domestic and international, as the country goes through a leadership transition and faces a new set of responsibilities on the global stage. Jamestown Senior Fellow Willy Lam evaluated China’s new leadership and their effect on Chinese policy, suggesting the new president, Xi Jinping, is pushing more aggressive Chinese actions. Michael Chase and Lu Yeh-Cheng examined how Beijing views China’s role in the world as well as the contradictions between its interests and its principles. 

The second panel focused on the military modernization trends within the conventional forces, offering a look at the PLA’s doctrinal, technological and training developments. Kevin McCauley discussed how the PLA is thinking about and preparing for a new kind C4ISR-enabled doctrine, while Kenneth Allen assessed the evolution of PLA Air Force training and the effects on Chinese capabilities. Andrew Erickson previewed his forthcoming Jamestown report on China’s anti-ship ballistic missile, addressing the weapon’s implications. 

The third panel explored the orientation and modernization of China’s internal security apparatus and how it has evolved to meet the country’s unrest. Dennis Blasko showed how the PLA, despite its lip service to preserving the party, has focused on more strictly military missions. Scot Tanner and Peter Mattis discussed how the paramilitary and police forces have attempted to integrate intelligence into their operations for greater efficiency. Although the situation is not as dire as it was a decade ago, the domestic security forces remain concerned with their ability to keep unrest down. 

The final panel of the day examined Chinese civil-military integration, highlighting how the defense industrial base has modernized. The three panelists—Joe McReynolds, Matt Luce and Dean Cheng—explored the ideas, people and an industry case study, respectively, that illustrate how Chinese industry has become innovative in select high-tech sectors. 

Jamestown board member General Michael V. Hayden (USAF, Ret.) provided the closing remarks to this year’s China Defense and Security  Conference with a short speech entitled “China and the Cyber Challenge.” In a wide-ranging discussion of China and cyber-security, General Hayden admitted “Look, as a professional, I just  stand back in awe of breath, depth, persistence and sophistication of Chinese espionage effort against the United States.” He highlighted China’s cyber espionage as a sign of the changing  U.S. relationship with and the new challenges posed by China. General Hayden recommended Washington “make Chinese cyber behavior an integral part of the portfolio of Sino-U.S. relations.”

Georgia: Political Power Transfer and Its International Implications
On Friday, March 1, 2013, the Jamestown Foundation and the Johns Hopkins SAIS Central Asia–Caucasus Institute (CACI) jointly presented a panel discussion on the implications of the October 2012 parliamentary elections and upcoming presidential election in Georgia. The event, entitled, “Georgia: Political Transfer and Its International Implications,” and held at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, featured three Western experts: Jamestown Senior Fellow Vladimir Socor, SAIS-CACI Director Svante E. Cornell, and Atlantic Council Executive Vice

President Damon Wilson. 

In his remarks, Cornell noted that over the past two decades, Georgia was able to reverse its state failure of the early 1990s and replaced it with significant democratic, judicial and market reforms, which is extremely rare in international affairs. On the other hand, he pointed to several shortcomings in Georgia’s reform process, including an emphasis on state building at the expense of developing a democratic political culture, poor media freedom, intimidation of opposition parties and a political policy of ends justifying the means. Wilson, a former U.S. government official, offered a policymaker’s viewpoint. He stated that political cohabitation in Georgia is not working and that the new government needs to uphold rule of law instead of seeking revenge through selective

prosecutions of former officials and opposition party members. He asserted that for the good of Georgia’s security, the transatlantic U.S.-EU relationship must be solid; Georgia remains an issue of consequence for both the U.S. and the EU; and he argued that the United States remains a European power, but the EU is not finished finding its role in Eastern Europe, and European enlargement must continue. Socor underscored that billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili’s election to prime minister represents a direct threat of state capture, which is undermining the unfinished process of nation building in Georgia. Furthermore, he noted that the new governing coalition, which is financially dependent on Ivanishvili’s financing, is composed of a variety of parties with few, if any,

unifying characteristics, but which is composed of individuals who are on average older, more pro-Russian, inexperienced and rarely educated in the West as compared to the previous Mikheil Saakashvili-led government. He concluded by saying that the United States should continue to uphold NATO’s open door policy toward Tbilisi, support the Georgian position on Russia’s occupation of its breakaway territories, and underscore Georgia’s and the South Caucasus’ strategic role as a transit and energy transmission corridor from the Caspian to Europe.

To watch the full conference video online, as well as read the speaker biographies, please click here

Hill Testimony: Islamist Militant Threats to Eurasia

The Jamestown Foundation’s Analyst Jacob Zenn testified on February 27, 2013 before the House Committee on Foreign Affairs, Subcommittee on Europe, Eurasia and Emerging Threats on Islamist Militant Threats to Eurasia. 

To see Jacob Zenn’s testimony on Militant Threats to Central Asia click here. 

More information about the hearing is here. 

Jacob Zenn is a Research Analyst of Eurasian and African Affairs for The Jamestown Foundation and an expert on Central Asian militant movements, including Jund al-Khilafa of Kazakhstan, the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, the Turkistan Islamic Party of Xinjiang, China, and Hizb ut Tahrir in Central Asia. He has published on emerging militant threats to Central Asia for the The Jamestown Foundation’s Terrorism Monitor, Eurasia Daily Monitor and Militant Leadership Monitor, West Point CTC Sentinel, Johns Hopkins SAIS Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, and Asia Times. His field research in Nigeria, Niger, Chad and Cameroon in June 2012 inspired his Occasional Report for The Jamestown Foundation,

“Northern Nigeria’s Boko Haram: The Prize in Al-Qaeda’s Africa Strategy.” 

A Charter Member of the National Language Service Corps for fluency in Chinese, Arabic and Indonesian, he has worked and carried out field research in the five Central Asian countries, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iran, Turkey, Iraq and the Russian Republic of Tatarstan, and studied Dari and Farsi languages at Samarkand State University in Uzbekistan, Uyghur and Uzbek languages at Xinjiang University in Urumqi, China and Kyrgyz, Kazakh and Russian languages at the London School in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan. 

Mr. Zenn received a J.D. from Georgetown Law in 2011, where he was a Global Law Scholar, a graduate degree in International Affairs from the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) Center for ChineseAmerican Studies in 2007, and a B.A. in International Affairs from Emory University in 2005.

Below is a list of Jamestown Foundation’s articles on terrorism and Islamic radicalization in Central Asia published in 2012-2013.  

Eurasia Daily Monitor

Terrorism Monitor

Militant Leadership Monitor

Media Appearances
Andrew Black was cited in an article titled “Belmokhtar, Mastermind of Algerian Gas Plant Attack” by The Daily Beast.
Ramzy Mardini was quoted in an article titled “Civil war leaves Syrian minorities with no clear options” by Times of Israel and by Associated Press.
Senior analyst Michael W. S. Ryan was interviewed by The Voice of Russia about captured al-Qaeda spokesman Abu Ghaith.

Jamestown’s Nicholas Heras was quoted in an article titled “Lebanon Oil & Gas Analysis 2013: Levantine Basin Natural Gas Muggle” by Macropolis.
Jamestown analyst Nicholas Heras was quoted extensively in an article by International Business Times titled “It’s Not Just China Vs. Everybody Else: A Bizarre, Ancient Conflict in Southeast Asia Between Philippines And Malaysia Intensifies.”
“China’s ‘Malacca Dilemma'” written by Jamestown analyst Ian Storey in 2006 was cited by Global Times in an article titled “Coast is clear.”
Jacob Zenn was quoted in an article titled “In Niger, New Disputes Over French Uranium Extraction” by International Business Times.
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