May 2014 Newsletter

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May 2014 Newsletter
The Jamestown Foundation Leadership: Glen E. Howard, President
At a Glance

Board Trip to Kyiv, Ukraine

Monthly Forecast: ISIS

Jamestown in the Media

Abubakar Siddique’s New Book

Featured Publications 

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Board Trip to Kyiv, Ukraine
From June 4 to June 8, The Jamestown Foundation led a ten-person delegation to Kyiv, Ukraine, to meet with senior government security officials in the interim Ukrainian government. Headed by Jamestown’s board chairman, Willem de Vogel, delegation members met with a number of senior ranking policymakers, including Andriy Parubiy, Secretary of the Ukrainian National Security and Defense Council; Deputy Minister of Defense Igor Kabanenko; the newly elected mayor of Kyiv, Vitali Klitschko; and Mustafa Cemilev, the leader of Crimean Tatars; as well as a host of other Ukrainian officials.  

During the four-day visit the delegation also met with the U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine, Gregg Pyatt. Jamestown President Glen Howard commented that the visit offered an exhilarating insight into the array of security challenges facing Ukrainian policymakers in their struggle to subdue the Russian-backed separatist rebellion in eastern Ukraine.  

Participating in the board delegation were Jamestown board chairman Willem de Vogel, board members KT McFarland, Matthew Bryza and Rob Spring, guest Peter Spring, Jamestown President Glen Howard, as well as Senior Fellow Vladimir Socor and EDM editor Matthew Czekaj.
Nicholas Heras on ISIS in Syria and Iraq
The militant Salafist organization Islamic State of Iraq and Syria is aggressively seeking to create an Islamic caliphate on the territory of Syria and Iraq with “capitals” in Raqqa, Syria, and another in Mosul, Iraq. ISIS’ relative success, to this date, has been the product of its fighters’ ferocity in combat, its ability to attract significant numbers of foreign fighters, the financial resources it is able to extract from criminal activities and from the local Syrian and Iraqi populations and the effective leadership of commander Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. The Syrian and Iraqi militaries are apathetic in confronting ISIS and there are even reports of these governments’ tacit support for the group, both of which cause much consternation and conspiracy-theorizing by the Syrian and Iraqi opposition movements.
Key to ISIS’ growth as these factors have been, the most important future trend that will limit or consolidate its hold on power in the Levant will be how well ISIS builds enduring social ties with local Sunni Arab tribes, many of which support ISIS for pragmatic reasons. It is the most powerful actor in their areas. ISIS’ supporting tribes are not solely confined to Syria and Iraq, but are also present in Turkey (a key NATO member), Jordan, Lebanon and Saudi Arabia. Understanding the impact that tribal groups and ISIS’ ongoing proto-state formation in the region is critical to informing the options that policy-makers and planners can pursue to prevent the entrenchment of an ISIS statelet in the heart of the Middle East. 
Recent Media Appearances
Fox News discussed Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko with Maksym Bugriy.
Dennis Blasko quoted by New York Times on Chinese military modernization.
Kuwait Times quoted Senior Fellow Willy Lam on Chinese terrorism.
Jacob Zenn interviewed by CNN on the Boko Haram schoolgirl kidnappings.
VOA quoted Wladimir van Wilgenburg on Syrian Kurds and their fight against jihadist militias.
Abubakar Siddique’s New Book
The Jamestown Foundation is proud to announce that one of our analysts, Abubakar Siddique, has recently released a new book entitled The Pashtun Question: The Unresolved Key to the Future of Pakistan and Afghanistan. The book covers the importance of the Pashtuns to both nations in their pursuit of lasting peace. To purchase the book, please click here.
Featured Publications
Conflict Zones: North Caucasus and Western Balkans Compared by Janusz Bugajski

The Jamestown Foundation is proud to announce the release of Janusz Bugajski’s landmark study of the increasingly unstable North Caucasus. Comparing the region to the war-ravaged Western Balkans of the 1990s, Mr. Bugajski argues that the North Caucasus are poised to inherit the status as the “powder keg” of Europe. In addition to reviewing the region’s recent history and making forecasts for the future, Mr. Bugajski offers suggestions and proposals for a more active approach by Western governments to defuse conflicts in the region.

**Conflict Zones is available for free on our website! To download your copy, please click here**
Janusz Bugajski is a Senior Fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA) in Washington DCand host of “Bugajski Hour” and “Bugajski Time” television shows broadcast in the Balkans. Bugajski has authored 19 books on Europe, Russia, and trans-Atlantic relations and is a columnist for several media outlets. His recent books include Conflict Zones: North Caucasus and Western Balkans Compared (2014), Return of the Balkans: Challenges to European Integration and U.S. Disengagement (2013), Georgian Lessons: Conflicting Russian and Western Interests in the Wider Europe (2010), Dismantling the West: Russia’s Atlantic Agenda (2009), America’s New European Allies (2009); and Expanding Eurasia: Russia’s European Ambitions (2008).

The Crimea: Europe’s Next Flashpoint?

In light of the recent events in Crimea, The Jamestown Foundation has decided to re-release its November 2010 Occasional Report: The Crimea; Europe’s Next Flashpoint.  Authored by the noted Ukrainian security expert Taras Kuzio, the report was four years ahead of its time and predicted that Russia and Ukraine would one day be locked again in a struggle over the strategic peninsula.  As the report noted back in 2010, Russia has always had a difficult time reconciling itself to accepting Ukraine as an independent state and a country. It had an even more impossible time recognizing Ukraine’s sovereignty over Crimea and the port of Sevastopol. The report remains a unique in-depth analysis of Russian-Ukraine relations and retraces the steps of Russian leaders and politicians from the 1990s to November 2010 and Moscow’s quest to regain control of Crimea.

*Click here to purchase this report*

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