Armenia and Azerbaijan Agree on Next Steps at White House Summit

Executive Summary:

• Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, and U.S. President Donald Trump signed a seven-point joint pledge declaring their intention to pursue peace between Azerbaijan and Armenia during an August 8 meeting at the White House. 
• During the same trip, the countries’ foreign ministers initialed the Agreement on Peace and Establishment of Interstate Relations, a draft of a peace deal which would require a controversial amendment to Armenia’s constitution before being signed or ratified. 
• In the seven-point joint declaration signed by both leaders, Armenia and Azerbaijan committed to work on a framework for granting development rights to the United States for the newly dubbed Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP), a transport route from Azerbaijan to its Nakhchivan exclave via Armenia previously known as the Zangezur Corridor. 
• The seven-point declaration and peace agreement draft are widely considered to be an important step toward a final agreement to normalize relations between the two countries, a path that is likely to take at least a year. 

Armenia and Azerbaijan edged closer to peace on Friday, August 8, after an unprecedented meeting at the White House between Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, and U.S. President Donald Trump. Journalists first reported the meeting just days before, and it was unclear if anything substantive would result. Press reports referred to a memorandum of understanding to work toward peace (Middle East Eye, August 4). 

On Friday, the Foreign Ministers of Azerbaijan and Armenia initialed the 17-point Agreement on Peace and Establishment of Interstate Relations, committing to work toward the text that had originally been drafted in the spring (see EDM, March 24; Azerbaijani Ministry of Foreign Affairs, August 11). While these initials cemented its contents, they do not yet signal an official signing and ratification of the agreement. Baku has for some time insisted on two preconditions before it can be signed, which include the dissolution of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) Minsk Group and the removal of a controversial preamble in the Armenian constitution referencing territorial claims on Azerbaijan and Türkiye (see EDM, June 25, 2024). 

Pashinyan and Aliyev, along with Trump, also signed a seven-point trilateral declaration during the meeting, which commits them to “further actions to achieve the signing and ultimate ratification” of the agreement (Prime Minister of Armenia, August 9). The two leaders highlighted that further steps are needed to officially sign the agreement and stressed the importance of establishing peace.

Speaking after the summit, Aliyev said that he is confident that Pashinyan will change Armenia’s constitution to allow the treaty to be signed and ratified from the middle of next year (Azatutyun, August 9). The three leaders did, however, commit to disbanding the now-defunct OSCE Minsk Group that had previously mediated between the sides. The OSCE has welcomed the summit and has agreed to implement the declaration (ArmenPress, August 9). 

The declaration formally announced Armenia’s commitment to the elaboration of the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP). Rumors that the United States would receive exclusive development rights on unimpeded communications between Azerbaijan and its Nakhchivan exclave through Armenia had been circulating since last month (see EDM, July 30).

The full logistics of this route, hitherto referred to as the Zangezur Corridor by Azerbaijan and Türkiye, remain unclear, except that it will no longer be overseen by Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) border guards on Armenia’s border with Iran, as established in the November 2020 ceasefire statement. This requirement has been a major matter of disagreement between the sides until now (see EDM, January 25, 2024). Very little else is known at present, including how it will function. 

Moscow is against U.S. participation in the peace process and warned that both Yerevan and Baku have yet to withdraw from the trilateral working group formally established to resolve the unblocking of regional transport and communications (Arka, January 31, 2021; Azatutyun, July 24; see EDM, July 30). Armenia and the United States will work bilaterally on the corridor, and a joint company might be established to invest in and manage the route, which will only go through Armenian and Azerbaijani territory.  Bilateral trade between Azerbaijan and Armenia is not yet on the table (Hraparak, August 10).

The opposition in Armenia accuses Pashinyan of essentially agreeing to the Zangezur Corridor, which would relinquish some sovereignty on its territory to the United States for up to 99 years (Panorama, August 2; 168.am, August 8). Media reports from a senior Trump administration official claim that the naming honoring Trump came from Yerevan (Azatutyun, August 8; The Guardian, August 9). 

The last point in the seven-point declaration signed by all three presidents noted the importance of advancing relations between Azerbaijan and the United States. In addition to formalizing a number of bilateral agreements with Armenia, it was also announced that the United States would pursue elaborating a Strategic Partnership Charter with Azerbaijan, just as Washington did with Armenia in the last days of President Joe Biden’s administration. Trump also suspended Section 907 of the 1992 Freedom Support Act, which was introduced in support of Armenia (Economic Times, August 8).

Most major countries and organizations, from France, the United Kingdom, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), and the European Union, welcomed the outcome of the meeting (European Council, August 8; X/@NATOpress; X/@DavidLammy, August 9; X/@EmmanuelMacron, August 11). Iran welcomed it too, but stressed its concerns about any geopolitical changes on its border with Armenia (Azatutyun, August 9 [1], [2]). Türkiye also welcomed the news. Ankara has linked progress in this respect to Yerevan’s finalization of a peace deal with Baku (News.am, August 11). The following day, the Azerbaijani and Turkish foreign ministers, Jeyhun Bayramov and Hakan Fidan, held a telephone call to discuss the meeting (Azatutyun, August 9). Aliyev and his Turkish counterpart, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, also had a call, as did Pashinyan two days later (Azatutyun, August 9, 11). 

Pashinyan also held calls with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and Russian President Vladimir Putin (Azatutyun, August 11, [1], [2]). Both Tehran and Moscow are considered to be potential spoilers to the Armenia-U.S. agreement on TRIPP (see EDM, July 29). Domestic response inside Armenia has been muted for now, though the opposition considers any Armenia–Azerbaijan deal negatively. 

Others, however, believe that the deal ensures Armenia’s sovereignty and security rather than threatening it (EVN Report, August 8; Jam-News, August 9). Despite some alleging that Pashinyan agreed to Azerbaijan’s passage through Armenia without obtaining Armenian access through Azerbaijan, others suggest the opposite, noting a reference to reciprocity in the 7-point Washington declaration (Civilnet, August 9). 

The opposition also criticized Pashinyan for not mentioning Armenian prisoners in Baku and the potential return of ethnic Armenians from Karabakh, who left the formerly separatist region in September 2023. Both Aliyev and Pashinyan ignored any questions on this matter, but Pashinyan later announced it had been discussed (ArmInfo, August 11). The issue of the right to return could be contingent, however, on ethnic Azerbaijanis returning to Armenia (Civilnet, August 11). 

The greatest criticism came from the leading nationalist Armenian diaspora lobbying group in the United States, which is linked to the opposition nationalist Armenian Revolutionary Federation,  Dashnaktsutyun (ANCA, August 7). In response, a key lawmaker and ally of Pashinyan accused the group and its supporters of serving the interests of anti-national and pro-Russia forces (X/@ArsTorosyan, August 7).

While it did not result in a formal peace deal, the Washington Summit took a step in that direction. Aliyev and Pashinyan said that Armenia and Azerbaijan should nominate Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize  (ArmenPress, August 9). Aliyev added that perhaps they should nominate him jointly. 

More cautious observers, however, note that there is still much to do, and the process toward a final peace and the unblocking of regional communication will take years rather than months. They also warn that Russia and Iran could still act as spoilers. Pezeshkian will visit Yerevan in the near future (ArmRadio, August 7). Senior Adviser to the Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ali Akbar Velayati has already warned that Iran will act decisively against foreign interference (Tehran Times, August 9). 

Pashinyan argues that TRIPP could be mutually beneficial and form the basis for international cooperation, a position he has held for almost a quarter of a century (Haykakan Zhamanak, May 23, 2001; ArmenPress, August 9). Nonetheless, many questions have been raised about TRIPP, and it could take months or even years for any clarity (Osmanqizi, August 8; Al Jazeera, August 9).