Commentary Excoriates Kremlin For Chechnya Policies

Valery Solovei has written a stinging commentary on Putin’s Chechnya policies for the January 16 issue of Rodnaya gazeta. Here is a slightly abridged version:

“The war…has not ended and shows no signs of ending. There has not even taken place the [usual] seasonal reduction in the intensity of military operations….Although elite federal units have shown themselves to be quite effective in anti-guerrilla operations, the guerrillas are equally well-skilled and well-equipped, and some of them have obtained legal ‘roofs’ for themselves in Kadyrov’s police force. New separatist leaders have come forward to replace the old ones…

“It turns out that the rise of a regime led by one of their own countrymen has not gladdened the Chechens. They would prefer local rulers appointed by the Russians…and are extremely worried about the prospective dominance of one teip over the others. That fear has now come true in that the new regime is based on clan and territorial principles….Chechens are even more terrified of the Kadyrov police than of the Russian army with its checkpoints and ‘zachistki’ security raids.

“…Financial subsidies for the restoration of the republic have turned out to be an embezzler’s dream. But Moscow is prepared to pay any price for the appearance of peace and quiet–even the price of offering Chechnya unprecedented political and economic autonomy, an autonomy so broad that Chechnya is beginning to look not like a republic within the Russian Federation but almost like an independent country which deals with Russia on equal terms. However, Kadyrov is ready to waive some of the attributes of sovereignty for the sake of his main objective–total control over Chechnya’s oil and a guarantee that his own political power will be inviolable…

“In that sense Kadyrov is now more successful than was the late Dudaev or the highland fugitive Maskhadov. The Kremlin is ready to hand to Chechnya on a platter everything for which the republic has long struggled…and on top of that to throw in lots of hard cash for restoration. Even this huge price would be justified if it led to peace….but instead the facts now suggest the development of new fault lines within Chechen society and between Chechnya and the rest of Russia…

“The Kadyrov regime has become not a stabilizing factor but a source of instability. The discontent of Chechen society with this odious regime will in the end turn against its supporters in Moscow. Moreover, the Kadyrov regime itself likes to play a double game: While avowing its loyalty to the Kremlin, it is not against co-operating with the separatists as long as they recognize Kadyrov’s supremacy…

“Possibly the Kremlin may soon try a new strategy for peace–but this will happen only after the [March presidential] election. Until then the federal center will need stability in the mutinous republic–even if that stability looks doubtful, unreliable and temporary.”