Georgian Dream Hopes to Elect New President With a One-Party Parliament

Executive Summary:

• Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze announced that a new president will be elected in early January. This will be the first time the Georgian president is elected by an electoral college, half of which is made up of parliament.
• This change is significant as the departure of President Salome Zourabichvili, a key counter to Georgian Dream, may leave the opposition without an ally, bolstering the ruling party’s leverage in the ongoing political crisis.
• The opposition’s refusal to recognize the results of the parliamentary election has sparked a legitimacy crisis. Georgian Dream seeks to consolidate power despite lacking a constitutional majority, relying on opposition participation to legitimize their control over the parliament.

On November 13, Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze announced that a new president would be elected “in early January” (Radiotavisupleba.ge, November 13). The six-year term of the current president, Salome Zourabichvili—elected by direct popular vote in 2018—has almost reached its end. She will retain her position until a new president is elected. If the newly elected parliament fails to meet due to claims of illegitimacy and new elections are called, the current president will remain in office until they are complete, as the role of parliament is critical for the election of a new president. According to the 2017 amendments to the constitution, for the first time in the history of Georgia, the president will be elected not by direct popular vote but by an elective board consisting of 300 people (Matsne.gov.ge, accessed November 19). The electoral college of 300 people will include all 150 members of parliament, all members of the Supreme Councils of the two autonomous regions of Abkhazia (20 deputies) and Adjara (21 deputies), as well as 109 members from the elective bodies of municipalities. The current president frequently counters Georgian Dream and is playing a significant role in not recognizing the legitimacy of the results of the recent parliamentary elections (see EDM, October 28, November 5; Radiotavisupleba.ge, October 29). If the country’s opposition does not take quick steps to annul the election results, the parliament will likely choose a Georgian Dream president. The opposition would then be left without a significant ally in the form of a president who, despite modest powers, has political and legal weight during the current crisis.

On November 13, members of the European Parliament not only sharply criticized Georgian officials during a debate on the Georgian election results, but some demanded that the executive branch of the European Union isolate the Georgian government and create a “cordon sanitaire” around the ruling regime” (Interpressnews.ge, November 14). On November 11, in Tbilisi, the heads of the committees on foreign relations of the parliaments of eight EU countries, including Eric Otoson, Chairman of the Swedish EU Affairs Committee, publicly spoke at an anti-government rally in the center of Tbilisi and called on Georgian citizens to resist (Mtavari.tv, November 11). Officials in Georgia, however, are creating an illusion of indifference to the prospect of Western countries not recognizing the election results.

The ruling party plans to completely monopolize the legislative body and appears confused and inconsistent in its political messaging. Additionally, Georgian Dream is still considering abolishing all major opposition parties, despite being unable to obtain a constitutional majority (113 seats) in parliament, even with the help of election fraud (OC Media, November 13). With only 89 seats out of 150, Georgian Dream will be unable to legitimize the legislative body without opposition. By demanding that the opposition enter parliament, Georgian Dream hopes to legitimize their rule and grant themselves the authority to expel the opposition and criminally charge its members. Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze, however, claims that Georgian Dream does not need recognition of the incoming parliament’s legitimacy from the opposition at all (Netgazeti.ge, November 13).

On November 11, Kobakhidze said that if the opposition continues to act against the constitutional order, the government will appeal to the constitutional court to ban such parties (Radiotavisupleba.ge, November 13). On November 13, Kobakhidze said that new forces should replace the existing political spectrum and that they will not need to ban opposition parties since the parties themselves will abolish themselves by boycotting the election results (Netgazeti.ge, November 13).

Three of the four coalitions that managed to cross the electoral threshold (the United National Movement, Coalition for Change, and Strong Georgia-Lelo) officially demanded their electoral lists be removed from registration so that none of their representatives could enter parliament as a member (Civil.ge, November 12). The “Party Gakharia for Georgia,” whose leader Giorgi Gakharia was Prime Minister under Georgian Dream rule, however, refuses to cancel the registration of their electoral list, calling this procedure “legal nonsense” (Netgazeti.ge, November 12). Parliament must first approve the legitimacy of all 150 deputies to remove power from the opposition, which will happen on November 25. After that, each individual representative of the opposition coalition must write a statement of refusal from parliamentary mandates. This legal norm gives hope to the ruling elite that it will be able to lure at least some of the opposition representatives into parliament.

Georgian Dream is actively trying to develop suspicions in society and damage the reputation of the opposition as a whole. They are cynically predicting that the opposition, which currently refuses to recognize the legitimacy of the results of the parliamentary elections, will stop this boycott, as they did in 2020. On November 13, one of the leaders of the ruling party, Nino Tsilosani, stated that “external patrons”—meaning Western countries—had told Party Gakharia for Georgia and Strong Georgia-Lelo to enter parliament (Rustavi2.ge, November 13). The chairman of the outgoing parliament, Shalva Papuashvili, however, predicts that all four political entities that have overcome the electoral barrier will join the incoming parliament (1tv.ge, October 28).

The ruling elite of Georgia holds hope for their future due to recent political developments in the West. Georgian Dream, faced with an acute political crisis within the country and a real danger of international isolation, greeted Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election with great enthusiasm and hope. Supporters of the ruling elite rejoiced on social networks in honor of Trump’s victory and actively supported Trump throughout the election period. Georgian Dream convinced the population of Georgia that after Vice President Kamala Harris’s defeat, there would be a “reset” and improvement of relations with the United States. In his congratulatory message, the Georgian Prime Minister expressed hope for such a reset between the two states (X.com/PM_Kobakhidze, November 12). Georgian Dream hopes that under the new US administration, the United States will recognize the newly elected parliament, lending Georgian Dream legitimacy and thereby helping it retain power.