Georgian Elections Mark Western Geopolitical Defeat and Win for Russian Influence

Executive Summary:

• Georgia’s ruling Georgian Dream party announced its victory in Georgia’s parliamentary elections on October 26, sparking outrage from the opposition due to suspected election fraud.
• The election results signify an opportunity for Tbilisi to turn toward Moscow, especially as many report likely election interference by Russia in an attempt to assert control over Georgia.
• The opposition has yet to take effective steps against the election results, contributing to the deepening sense of nihilism and frustration among Georgians. If the opposition parties do not make substantial moves against Georgian Dream, society will lose its trust in them.

In the fateful parliamentary elections on October 26 in Georgia, the ruling Georgian Dream party declared itself the winner, shocking both voters and the opposition. The opposition has refused to recognize Georgian Dream’s claim at this stage, accusing the ruling party of falsifying the election results. While demoralized, it seems that the opposition will not back down without a fight. The opposition parties have already demanded re-elections in Georgia to be held under the auspices of the International Election Administration (Interpressnews.ge, October 28). Georgian President Salome Zourabichvili called the election results a total falsification that utilized modern technology to secure Georgian Dream’s preferred results. This also reflects a form of Russian hybrid warfare, prompting President Zourabichvili to denounce the election as a “Russian special operation against Georgia,” further calling on citizens to boycott the election results (1tv.ge, October 27). This sentiment was further supported by Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev, himself suggested that Georgian Dream remove Zourabichvili from office and arrest her for refusing to accept the election results (VM.ru, October 28). Georgian Dream’s reported victory in the face of accusations of election fraud will pull Georgia further away from the West and closer toward authoritarian Russia.

Some opposition representatives admit that “parties and non-governmental organizations [NGOs] failed to expose in advance the criminal scheme by which Russian special services are stealing the future from the Georgian people” (Facebook.com/salome.samadashvili.1, October 27). Even if the opposition decides to boycott the Georgian parliament’s once the new members are seated, according to the preliminary results of the elections, Georgian Dream will have about 89 of the 150 seats. This is not the constitutional majority that Georgian Dream was striving for, but it is enough for the parliament to function without the participation of the opposition.

One of the most influential local NGOs, the International Society for Fair Elections and Democracy, a traditional authority during election observation, said in its assessment of the October 27 elections that they were unable to record any major problems during the vote count. The election results, however, could have been affected by significant violations during the pre-election period and on election day, such as pressure on voters, intimidation, confiscation of identity cards, bribery of voters, etc. (Interpressnews.ge, October 27). The president of the International Republican Institute, Daniel Twining stated in reference to Georgia’s elections, “I am truly surprised by the scale of intimidation and pressure on voters; this is certainly not a fundamental characteristic of democracy” (Interpressnews.ge, October 27).

During the pre-election period, the opposition insisted that if the voter turnout reached 2 million people, it would mean the collapse of the ruling Georgian Dream (Interpressnews.ge, October 26). This inspired many people to come out, and more than 2 million citizens out of 3,508,294 registered voters showed up at the polling stations (Cec.gov.ge, accessed October 28). This was a notable increase from the two previous parliamentary elections of 2016 and 2020, where 1,825,054 and 1,992,891 people voted, respectively (Cesko.ge, [1], [2], accessed October 28).

Georgian Dream reports that it received 53.93 percent of the vote. According to official primary results, the main opposition parties received an extremely low number of votes. Of the 18 participating parties or coalitions, along with Georgian Dream, only four parties overcame the 5 percent electoral barrier and won seats in parliament. The largest opposition force, the United National Movement, received just over 10 percent of the votes and 16 seats; Coalition for Change received just over 11 percent and 19 seats; Gakharia for Georgia received over 7 percent and 12 seats; and Strong Georgia-Lelo received over 8 percent and 14 seats (Cec.gov.ge, accessed October 28).

According to the official election results, Georgian Dream did not win the capital or major cities. It received impressive but dubious results, however, in two regions of Georgia—Kvemo Kartli and Javakheti—territories populated almost exclusively by ethnic minorities. In the Marneuli and Gardabani municipalities in Kvemo Kartli, ethnic Azerbaijanis dominate, and in the Ninotsminda and Akhalkalaki municipalities in Javakheti, ethnic Armenians are the predominant population. Ethnic minorities in these regions often do not speak Georgian, especially in villages, and illiteracy rates are high. For 33 years, Kvemo Kartli and Javakheti have traditionally been a hub for election fraud in Georgia. They have historically favored the country’s ruling parties since independence, as the local situation makes the regions’ votes easy to manipulate.

During the pre-election period, the leaders of Georgian Dream alleged that Western countries were interfering in favor of the opposition in the electoral process, while keeping silent about the unprecedented involvement of Russia. Moreover, during the pre-election period, the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service announced its support of Georgian Dream. On the eve of the elections, Bulgarian investigative journalist Christo Grozev warned that “Russia can only ensure a pro-Russian regime in Georgia through radical election fraud” and pointed out the activation of Russian special services in this direction (Ekhokavkaza.com, October 24).

Unsurprisingly, without waiting for the official election results to be announced, Kremlin propagandist Margarita Simonyan and the Kremlin-sympathetic leader of Hungary, Viktor Orban, were the first to congratulate Georgian Dream on its victory (X.com/M_Simonyan; X.com/PM_ViktorOrban, October 26). One of the first Western politicians to respond to the elections in Georgia was former UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who stated, “The picture emerging from Georgia is clear—yesterday’s election has been stolen by [Russian President Vladimir] Putin’s puppet government in Tbilisi. I back the people of Georgia as they stand up for their freedom, their rights, and their future” (X.com/BorisJohnson, October 27). After the announcement of the results of the Georgian elections, US Congressman and Chairman of the Helsinki Commission, Joe Wilson, expressed concern about well-documented efforts by Russia to influence the election. He called on the US State Department to carefully investigate allegations of fraud and make a clear statement about Russia’s role (Interpressnews.ge, October 27). Additionally, on October 27, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, stated, “International observers have not declared the result to be free and fair. We condemn all contraventions of international norms and join calls from international and local observers for a full investigation of all reports of election-related violations” (US State Department, October 27).

During the pre-election period, the main opposition parties were unable to wage a coordinated campaign. They got carried away by competition among themselves and by the pre-emptive redistribution of government portfolios. In the last week of the pre-election campaign, the parties heatedly discussed the candidates for the future prime minister instead of keeping a keen eye on preventing election fraud. On election day, immediately after the end of voting, the four main opposition parties announced the results of a parallel vote count, according to which they allegedly received a total of 51.9 percent of the vote and the Georgian Dream only 40.9. This gave the opposition an unfounded reason to celebrate the victory in advance, after which they announced the beginning of the process of forming a new coalition government (Formulanews.ge, October 26).

It seems implausible that a party that has been in power continuously since 2012 won all subsequent elections. Before this, not a single party had managed to hold power at all levels for such a long period. It is unclear how Georgian Dream received such a high number of votes—reportedly 1,117,480—while at the same time facing a sharp fall in their approval rating. Logically, Georgian Dream should have received much fewer votes than in 2020, when it earned 928,004.

On October 28, in the center of Tbilisi, the opposition organized a huge protest rally and declared the illegitimacy of the Georgian Dream government. Despite this, many in Georgia worry that at least part or all the opposition may come to terms with another victory of Georgian Dream and, as during the previous parliamentary elections of 2020, may agree to accept the parliamentary mandates that Georgian Dream offers them. During the pre-election period, the opposition presented these elections as a geopolitical battle of Georgia against Russia in favor of the country’s European future. If the opposition party does not make substantial moves against Georgian Dream, society will lose its trust in them.

The preconditions are already in place for this small post-Soviet country to begin moving quickly toward Russia by joining dubious interstate formations such as the 3+3 format or BRICS (a loose political-economic grouping originally consisting of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa). Before and after the elections, Georgian Dream has already received such invitations from the Kremlin, and if the opposition does not make a concerted effort to combat the ruling party, Tbilisi will continue its turn toward Russia.