Strategic Snapshot: Global Competition in Critical Minerals and Rare Earth Elements

On May 1, Ukraine and the United States signed a long-anticipated minerals deal providing the United States with preferential rights to mineral extraction in Ukraine. The agreement creates a U.S.-controlled, jointly-managed investment fund that will receive revenues from new projects in critical minerals, oil, and natural gas. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy explains that the new deal allows “both Ukraine and the United States, which supports us in our defense, to make money in partnership” as Ukraine continues to defend itself against Russia’s full-scale invasion.

The agreement comes as the global critical minerals market remains highly competitive, with the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and Russia currently leading in mineral processing infrastructure and capabilities. The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects that by 2030, nearly 50 percent of the market value from critical minerals refining will be concentrated in the PRC. IEA further assesses that by 2030, over 90 percent of battery-grade graphite and 77 percent of refined rare earths will originate from the PRC. In 2022, Russia was the source of 40 percent of global uranium enrichment. In 2024, approximately 35 percent of U.S. uranium imports (used for nuclear fuel) came from Russia.

Jamestown analysts have been assessing international competition and capabilities in critical minerals and rare earth elements for years. Our experts provide open-source analysis grounded in local language sources to help Americans understand their adversaries and allies in their own words and in their own terms.

To a PDF version of the Strategic Snapshot, click here.

Selected Jamestown Analysis on Critical Minerals and Rare Earth Elements

Kazakhstan and People’s Republic of China Collaborate in Critical Minerals Sector

Yunis Sharifli, Eurasia Daily Monitor

April 3, 2025

Executive Summary:

Kazakhstan is positioning itself as a strategic hub for critical minerals, leveraging its vast reserves of copper, zinc, lead, and nickel to attract foreign investment and diversify economic partnerships amid growing global demand and geopolitical competition.
Deepening cooperation with the People’s Republic of China (PRC) is bringing Kazakhstan technical and economic benefits, including job creation, technology transfer, and new export channels.
Cooperation with the PRC in Kazakhstan’s critical mineral industry is raising concerns over economic dependency and limited control over strategic resources.
Kazakhstan aims to balance PRC involvement by actively pursuing partnerships with the United States, European Union, and Japan, while incorporating local content and knowledge transfer into future agreements.

Ukrainian Minerals Deal Must Balance Energy Independence with International Commitments

Anna J. Davis, Eurasia Daily Monitor

March 7, 2025

Executive Summary:

Ukraine holds Europe’s largest reserves of uranium and aims to become self-sufficient in domestic uranium production by 2027.
Ukraine and the United States are debating how a critical minerals deal could factor into potential security guarantees or a peace settlement in Russia’s war against Ukraine.
Any critical minerals deals involving uranium will require Ukraine to balance its domestic nuclear fuel needs with commitments to export uranium abroad.

Island Hopping: the PRC’s Quest for Strategic Maritime Influence and Resource Security through the Cook Islands Partnership

Shijie Wang, China Brief Notes

March 3, 2025

Executive Summary:

The People’s Republic of China (PRC) and the Cook Islands signed two agreements in February that extend Beijing’s engagement in the South Pacific to include deep-sea exploration and dual-use maritime infrastructure.
Beijing seeks to overcome U.S.-imposed containment in the Pacific. The Cook Islands agreements include provisions for port infrastructure, potentially offering logistical support for the People’s Liberation Army Navy and expanding its presence in the third island chain.
Since 2009, PRC state-led studies have identified critical minerals in the deep sea around the Cook Islands, especially cobalt, which is crucial for battery technologies. The island nation now is expected to facilitate Chinese mining operations, securing a supply chain advantage for Beijing.

U.S. Firms to Invest in Ukraine’s Rare Earth Elements in Return For Continued Aid

John C. K. Daly, Eurasia Daily Monitor

February 26, 2025

Executive Summary:

Ukraine and the United States reached a landmark deal on rare earth elements (REEs), with Ukraine allocating proceeds from the future monetization of its mineral resources to fund domestic projects.
Washington has emphasized securing REEs and critical minerals from Ukraine in exchange for U.S. aid. European media, however, has criticized the terms as exploitative, warning of long-term economic burdens for Ukraine.
The United States has shifted to direct negotiations with Russia, excluding Ukraine, sparking diplomatic tensions. Ukraine and European allies insist on participation, casting doubt on negotiation outcomes.

Competition for Control of Rare Earths Triggering Great Power Conflict in Central Asia

Paul Goble, Eurasia Daily Monitor

February 11, 2025

Executive Summary:

Control of access to rare earth minerals that are critical for the development of technologies is a driver in the strategic thinking of Western powers, as well as the People’s Republic of China and Russia.
Recent developments in Central Asia highlight the growing importance of rare earth minerals in global geopolitics as these resources are now central to technological and strategic power.
Central Asia as a region risks falling into conflict as governments prefer to involve multiple actors so that a single foreign power cannot hold sway over the country and undermine the central government.

Roiling in the Deep: PRC Pushes New Deep Sea Order

Sunny Cheung and Owen Au, China Brief

January 31, 2025

Executive Summary:

New deep-sea technologies, growing influence in the International Seabed Authority, and domestic legislation are part of the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) ambitions to become a strong maritime power.
The PRC is the world’s largest net importer of critical minerals, a potential vulnerability that could be alleviated through exploiting the ocean floor. This would help reinforce its already dominant position in the critical minerals supply chain and in the manufacture of the key technologies of the energy transition.
The International Seabed Authority is currently negotiating a mining code. The PRC has been among the most vocal advocates for opening international waters to mining and in 2023 opposed the creation of an inspection body to enforce a future code, while last year it unilaterally blocked a motion to pause mining activities out of environmental concerns.
Deep-sea activity conducted by the PRC, including scientific research, is closely linked to the country’s military. Key institutions are subject to U.S. government sanctions and export controls, and research vessels have been caught undertaking exploration activities within the exclusive economic zones of other nations or planting the PRC flag in contested areas.

Kazakhstan and the West Look to Strengthen Rare-Earth Cooperation

Nurbek Bekmurzaev, Eurasia Daily Monitor

July 1, 2024

Executive Summary:

In June, Kazakhstan voiced its plans to declassify data on rare-earth and rare-metal deposits as well as a renewed effort to attract Western investment to mine and process the country’s vast reserves.
Russia’s war against Ukraine has exposed the European Union and Western countries’ reliance on China as the main exporter and Russia as the main transit country for rare earths delivered to Europe. Kazakhstan presents a promising chance to limit that dependency.
Attracting foreign investment and adopting new technologies will be key, and the United States, United Kingdom, and European Union are quickly becoming central players in maximizing the potential of Kazakhstan’s REE and RM industry.

Rare-Earth Reserves in Central Asia Sparking Intense Geopolitical Competition

Paul Goble, Eurasia Daily Monitor

June 13, 2024

Executive Summary:

The enormous rare-earth mineral reserves in Central Asia are intensifying geopolitical competition among China, the West, and Russia and have been complicated by their competing agendas.
Beijing wants to develop a monopoly on rare earths, the United States and the European Union want to break that by limiting the growth of Chinese influence, and Russia wants to keep both China happy and the West out.
Some are already calling this competition the “Great Game of the 21st century,” which elevates Central Asia’s importance internationally, reorders geopolitical relations, and challenges domestic arrangements in the region.

Uzbekistan to Increase Rare-Earth Production

John C. K. Daly, Eurasia Daily Monitor

June 12, 2024

Executive Summary:

Uzbekistan’s President Shavkat Mirziyoyev has emphasized the development of the country’s rare-earth mining sector as a primary goal of his government due to the country’s massive reserves.
Uzbekistan has begun to work with the European Union, United States, and United Kingdom to develop strategic cooperation for the extraction of rare-earth elements.
The success of Uzbekistan’s rare-earth industry may provide more options for avoiding overreliance on Russian reserves, but it is unclear how the bottleneck of Chinese processing capabilities will be circumvented.

Graphene Among New Materials Intended to Unlock New Productive Forces

Michael Laha, China Brief

May 10, 2024

Executive Summary:

Graphene is one of the most promising candidates to boost the new materials sector, which has been the focus of high-level strategic planning in the People’s Republic of China (PRC) for some time. The material’s unique properties make it suitable for applications in the critical aeronautics and electronics sectors.
In 2016, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) established a leading small group dedicated to the new materials industry. Such a cross-ministerial steering body is only rarely dedicated to just a single economic sector.
Last year, the Chinese Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released a list of 15 new materials, including graphene, that the Chinese government hopes will create new sources of economic growth. These have been folded into the recent drive for “new productive forces,” aimed at finding new sources of economic dynamism.
A prominent graphene researcher, Liu Zhongfan, shows how experts can be adept at linking their research to strategic goals, while also advising caution about the potential for quick and easy answers to complex economic issues.

Mongolia Considers Air Bridge With United Kingdom for Rare-Earth Exports

John C. K. Daly, Eurasia Daily Monitor

April 4, 2024

Executive Summary

The Mongolian and British governments are engaged in talks on opening an “air bridge” to increase exports of Ulaanbaatar’s rare-earth elements (REEs) to the West.
Mongolia possesses vast deposits of REES that play a critical role in the development and production of modern defense, medical, information, and “green” technology.
Ulaanbaatar hopes to reduce its dependency on China and Russia by developing partnerships with Western countries to mine, refine, and export its REEs.

Russia Faces Serious Problems in Helping China Corner Rare Earth Mineral Market

Paul Goble, Eurasia Daily Monitor

April 27, 2023

Executive Summary:

Moscow aims to support China’s rare earth ambitions to counter Western technology restrictions by supplying minerals and restricting rivals in production, but Russia’s degraded production capacity severely limits its strategic utility to Beijing.
Russia contributes only 2 percent to the global output of rare earths despite holding the world’s second-largest reserve due to privatization, lack of domestic demand, and inaccessible deposits.
Russian strategists see the potential collaboration between Russia and China in rare earths as a powerful economic weapon, but China’s declining dominance and rising global competition complicate the alliance’s strategic usefulness.

Directions Forward for Chinese Rare Earths After the Two Sessions

Elizabeth Chen, China Brief

March 15, 2021

Executive Summary:

In response to rising U.S. tensions, China’s draft regulations aim to centralize oversight across the rare earths supply chain, introducing production quotas, environmental rules, export controls, and tracking systems to ensure strategic resource management.
China faces internal pressures despite dominating global production, including environmental pushback, inefficient resource use, and declining output, prompting regulatory reforms and increased imports to meet high-tech and defense sector demands.
Western nations are actively seeking alternatives to Chinese rare earths by funding new facilities and diversifying sources, as China’s past export restrictions and strategic use of rare earths spark international supply chain realignments.

To a PDF version of the Strategic Snapshot, click here.