Moscow Seeks to Regain Initiative in the Game of Peace Talks

Executive Summary:

• Moscow sees its recent diplomatic engagement with the United States as a sign of progress, with Russian President Vladimir Putin aiming to regain the initiative in peace talks.
• Russia is anticipating that last week’s Munich Security Conference indicates possible rifts in trans-Atlantic relations and the marginalization of Europe in shaping the post-war order.
• Putin’s strategy may be miscalculated, despite optimism in Moscow, as Russia’s economic weaknesses and battlefield successes may not translate into successful negotiations.

Jubilation in Moscow after the phone conversation between Russian President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President Donald Trump on February 12 has given way to contemplations of the consequences and even to confusion caused by the barrage of statements from officials throughout the week (Kremlin.ru, February 12). During the conversation, Putin conveyed that “it was time for both countries to work together” (Ibid). Other Russian officials have echoed positive sentiments in the past few days. In a Russian media interview, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said, “This is a powerful signal that we will now try to solve problems through dialogue … Now we will talk about peace, not war” (Telegram/@zarubinreporter, February 16). According to a source in the Russian foreign policy establishment, “It is only the start of the negotiations, but Putin has won the first round” (The Guardian, February 13). Preparations in the Kremlin for the much-anticipated meeting between the two leaders in Saudi Arabia were complicated by the lack of clarity about what the peace plan for Ukraine designed in Washington D.C. really contains (Carnegie Politika; Kommersant, February 14). Only Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has been able to keep pace with the speed of developments by issuing a stream of ideas, ranging from Ukraine’s need for nuclear weapons to the building of an all-European army, while the tone of Russian mainstream commentary has been uncharacteristically circumspect (Novaya gazeta Europe, February 14; News.ru, February 15).

Personal communication with the U.S. administration matters most for Putin in this fast flow of developments (Carnegie Politika, February 13). The official summary on the Kremlin website of the phone call is rather short and dry, but Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov found it opportune to emphasize the normal tone of the conversation between “two well-mannered, polite people” (Kremlin.ru, February 12; TASS, February 13). Mutual invitations to visit respective capitals may never materialize, but the expression of respect from the leader, who is reshaping the global agenda, is perceived in Moscow as a major accomplishment (Izvestiya, February 13). The Kremlin has instructed Russian media to emphasize Putin’s firmness and resolve and to “mention Trump less often” (Meduza, February 14).

The main forum for debates on the prospects of peace in Ukraine was set last weekend at the Munich Security Conference, which Russian pundits had been eager to downgrade as a gathering of outdated opinions (RIAC, February 12). Russia was certainly not invited to partake (Vedomosti, February 14). The discussions sought to solidify the common ground between the U.S. desire to ensure a quick end to hostilities, the European need for a stable security arrangement, and the Ukrainian aversion to rewarding Russia’s aggression (Izvestiya, February 15).

Two main outcomes from the surge of U.S. diplomatic activity are keenly anticipated in Moscow, including a split in trans-Atlantic relations and the marginalization of Europe in shaping the post-war order (Nezavisimaya gazeta, February 13). These expected futures are in logical contradiction. Europe, which has been investing more in its own security, will necessarily carry the main responsibility for ensuring the stability of the negotiated peace arrangement (Re: Russia, February 14). Putin cannot be bothered by such nuances and persists with the assertion that Europe would do the United States’ bidding obediently “wagging its tail” (RBC, February 10). Russian commentators have eagerly exaggerated shock in Europe to U.S. statements while signs of a new resolve that the emergency summit in Paris could strengthen are ignored (Russia in Global Affairs, January 22; Nezavisimaya gazeta, February 17).

Moscow appears to be at a loss in deciding how to respond to the rhetoric coming from Beijing (Kommersant, February 16). The People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) Foreign Minister, Wang Yi, argued at the Munich Security Conference that a peace settlement in Ukraine should involve all interested parties (RIA Novosti, February 16). Yi held a meeting with Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha, which was only briefly mentioned in Russian media (Ibid). The PRC appears particularly interested in the U.S. conversations on access to rare earth minerals in Ukraine, the value of which, in Russian estimates, is downplayed (Forbes.ru, February 10).

Putin remains, nevertheless, fixated on engaging in bilateral bargaining with the United States. At a meeting in Saudi Arabia on February 18, Moscow’s team at the negotiating table with the United States included Lavrov, long-term foreign policy advisor Yuri Ushakov, and Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF) head Kirill Dmitriev (The Bell, February 14; RBC, February 15; TASS, February 17, 18). The delegation also included Vladimir Proskuryakov, a specialist on Arctic affairs and the Deputy Head of Mission at the Russian Embassy in Canada, and Dmitry Balakin, deputy director for European cooperation in the Foreign Ministry (The Moscow Times, February 18; Embassy of the Russian Federation in Canada; Russian International Affairs Council, accessed February 18). In a press conference after the talks, Lavrov emphasized that it is important to ensure the “readiness of the great powers in any situation to maintain a normal, professional dialogue” and to learn “lessons” from what is happening (Facebook/Russian Foreign Ministry – МИД России, February 18). The Kremlin has taken note of the U.S. readiness to reckon with such realities on the ground as the impossibility of return to Ukraine’s pre-war borders and the impracticality of Ukraine’s accession to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), but it remains reluctant to reciprocate these concessions by accepting a ceasefire (Svoboda.org, February 14).

For Putin, the war in Ukraine is an existential conflict, in which Russia is on the way to victory. This means that the offensive operations in Donbas will continue unabated, and North Korean troops are back in the trenches of the Kursk front (The Insider, February 15). Russian mainstream analysts stay on the message of irreducible confrontation with the so-called hostile West and re-energized United States, which seeks to restore its global dominance and diminish Russia’s influence on the international arena (Kommersant, February 14).

Aside from marking the grim three-year anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the Munich Security Conference also remembered one year since the murder of Alexei Navalny, renowned leader of the Russian opposition, in the Arctic prison camp (Republic.ru, February 15; see EDM, February 18). Navalny’s widow, Yulia Navalnaya, who addressed the conference last year only a few hours after learning of her husband’s death, spoke for a second time and warned that any deal with Putin would be hazardous and prone to be broken on his whim (Munich Security Conference, February 16, 2024; Meduza, February 14).

Putin presumes that he can gain an advantage in the fast-moving game of peace talks, but his confidence in the strength of Russia’s negotiating position based on the tactical successes on the battlefields may turn out to be misplaced. The Kremlin appears to assume that time is on Russia’s side. A probable failure to reach an agreement at the meeting in Saudi Arabia will likely be perceived by Moscow as an opportunity to gain more concessions at the negotiating table. As Dmitriev stated after the talks, “It is too early to talk about compromises. We can say that the sides started communicating with each other, started listening to each other, started the dialogue” (TASS, February 18). Putin’s strategy in Ukraine has been a chain of miscalculations and setbacks. Faking readiness to reach a peace deal while persisting with pressure for victory could be yet another blunder.