Poland Prepares for Direct War with Russia

Executive Summary:

• Poland is accelerating its military build-up for a projected war with Russia as Ukraine faces a potentially unfavorable outcome in the peace talks brokered by the Donald Trump administration.
• Warsaw plans to introduce voluntary military training for all adult males and bolster Poland’s armed forces to half a million military personnel and reservists, in addition to increasing military spending and urging NATO allies to raise their defense budgets.
• Poland’s military expansion is taking place amid a presidential election campaign, in which neither of the two major political camps wants to be perceived as weak on national security.

Poland has been reinvigorating its military preparations for a potential war with Russia since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine began in February 2022. Warsaw is bolstering its defenses in anticipation of the growing likelihood of direct armed conflict with its perennial historical rival, given the uncertainties surrounding U.S. President Donald Trump’s attempts to broker peace between Moscow and Kyiv, as well as the prospect of Russia consolidating its territorial gains in Ukraine. The Polish government calculates that if Washington forces Ukraine to surrender parts of its territory and elements of its sovereignty, while Russia is enabled to restore its economy and military through the lifting of economic sanctions, then Poland will be on the front lines of the next war.

In recent weeks, the coalition government of Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has taken several domestic and international steps to strengthen Poland’s military capabilities and social preparedness. In a major speech in parliament on March 7, Tusk explained the basis for Poland’s accelerated military buildup (Euromaidan Press, March 7). Tusk warned that intelligence reports shared by allies indicate that Moscow is planning for a significantly larger war within three to four years by massively investing in its military expansion and capacity for mobilization. Tusk also noted that it was unlikely that Ukraine would receive any hard security guarantees from the United States under any prospective peace deal, meaning that Poland’s predicament had become more dangerous.

During the parliamentary speech, Tusk announced plans to introduce voluntary military training for every adult male so they will be ready to become “full-fledged soldiers in conflict situations” (Notes from Poland, March 7). The purpose of the training is to create a substantial reserve force over the coming years by providing incentives for annual training without implementing compulsory military service (Rzeczpospolita, March 24). The training program will include courses in civil defense, first aid provisioning, and firearms training. In addition to men, women will have the option to join the training program.

Tusk claimed that the government was considering the need to build a half-million-strong army in Poland, including reservists. Poland already possesses the third-largest military in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and the largest in the European Union with 216,100 personnel (Notes from Poland, July 16, 2024). It is surpassed only by the United States (1.3 million) and Türkiye (481,000), and is followed by France (204,700), Germany (185,600), Italy (171,400), and the United Kingdom (138,100). The previous Law and Justice (Prawo i Sprawiedliwośċ, PiS) government had set a target in 2022 to increase the size of the armed forces to 300,000 personnel (Gazeta Prawna, September 23, 2023). That figure has now been increased due to the growing threat from Russia and the uncertainty surrounding the United States’s commitment to defending Europe. 

Poland’s focus on national defense has been evident in its consistent increases in military spending and weapons acquisition (see Bugajski, Pivotal Poland: Europe’s Rising Power, 2025). In 2022, Poland was one of only nine NATO members to maintain its military spending above the 2 percent of GDP (Gross Domestic Product) guidelines agreed upon by NATO leaders and reaffirmed by their 2014 “Defense Investment Pledge” (NATO, June 18, 2024). Warsaw subsequently increased its share to 3.9 percent in 2023, the highest among all NATO members, even ahead of the United States at 3.49 percent. By 2024, Warsaw’s defense spending had reached 4.12 percent of GDP and is projected to grow to 4.7 percent in 2025. The Alliance also issued guidelines stating that at least 20 percent of annual defense expenditures should be allocated for the purchase of military equipment. Poland has consistently met or exceeded this target, allocating more than 50 percent of its defense spending to military modernization, the highest level in the alliance (Polish Ministry of National Defense, February 22, 2024). In one recent acquisition, Poland’s Defense Ministry signed a deal worth about $1.7 billion to acquire 111 Borsuk (Badger) tracked infantry fighting vehicles from the country’s state-run Polish Armaments Group (Polska Grupa Zbrojeniowa, PGR). Defense Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz underscored that Warsaw was delivering on promises to invest in Poland’s defense industry (Defense News, March 27).

Another element in Poland’s military buildup consists of constructing major border fortifications with Belarus and Russia (Kaliningrad oblast) (Notes from Poland, May 27, 2024). At a cost of 2.4 billion euros ($2.56 billion), Warsaw is fortifying approximately 700 kilometers (435 miles) of its eastern and northern borders in preparation for a potential attack. This “East Shield” (Tarcza Wschód) project includes new physical infrastructure, such as bunkers, minefields, and anti-tank obstacles, together with electronic components, including satellite monitoring, thermal imaging cameras, and anti-drone systems. According to Kosiniak-Kamysz, the project will be completed by 2028 and will strengthen capabilities against a surprise attack, impede the movement of enemy troops, facilitate the movement of Polish forces, and protect the civilian population (Breaking Defense, May 28, 2024) Warsaw expects funding for East Shield from various EU defense programs and reached a preliminary agreement in March with the European Investment Bank (EIB) for 1 billion euros ($1.08 billion) in funding (Polskie Radio, March 20). The European Parliament has recognized the project as a flagship initiative for EU-wide defense (European Parliament, March 12).

Polish President Andrzej Duda and Premier Tusk, although they are political rivals, are both committed to boosting the country’s defenses. Duda has proposed changing Poland’s constitution to guarantee that Warsaw will spend at least 4 percent of GDP each year on its security (Kancelaria Prezydenta, March 7). Constitutional change requires the support of a two-thirds majority in parliament, so both the ruling coalition and opposition would need to vote in favor. Tusk expressed his willingness to consider Duda’s proposal while the PiS opposition leader Jarosław Kaczyński declared his support. Duda has expressed his satisfaction that he cooperates with Tusk on security issues, as they are in “constant contact and consultation” (Notes from Poland, March 7). 

For his part, Tusk has announced that Warsaw intends to redirect 7.2 billion euros ($7.7 billion) from its share of the European Union’s post-pandemic recovery funds toward defense spending (Kancelaria Premiera, March 25). If approved by the European Commission, Poland would be the first member state to do so, and it would be consistent with the “ReArm Europe” plan to bolster Europe’s security, presented by Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. The funds would be allocated to the newly established Security and Defense Fund (Fundusz Bezpieczeństwa i Obronności) to strengthen Poland’s security infrastructure, build civilian shelters, modernize defense firms, bolster cybersecurity, and fund research and development (Portal Funduszy Europejskich, March 7). The Defense Ministry has also called for all of the country’s civilian airports to be adapted for dual military use (Notes from Poland, February 28).

Warsaw has been at the forefront of encouraging higher NATO defense spending and commitments to defend the eastern flank. Duda has submitted a request for NATO to increase its minimum guideline for defense spending from 2 percent to 3 percent of GDP. After meeting with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, Duda stated that “If the entire alliance does not increase its spending, then unfortunately [Russian President Vladimir] Putin may want to attack again, because there will be no effective deterrence” (Notes from Poland, March 7). Duda’s proposal occurred on the same day that Trump warned that if NATO members did not allocate enough funds for their own defense, then the United States would not defend them if they were attacked (YouTube/@TheTimes, March 6). Simultaneously, Tusk called on Europe to “win the arms race” with Russia, to start believing that “we are a global power,” and attain “defense independence” (Notes from Poland, March 2; Kancelaria Premiera, March 6).

On a visit to Warsaw on March 26, Rutte affirmed that the alliance would defend Poland “with full force” if Russia attacked and that “our reaction will be devastating” (Notes from Poland, March 26). Warsaw has also been firming up its bilateral European alliances. A treaty on mutual security guarantees between Poland and France is being finalized, and on January 17, U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer visited Warsaw to discuss a new defense and security treaty with his Polish counterpart (Notes from Poland, January 17; TVP World, March 27). The treaty is planned to be signed by the end of the year. It will enhance cooperation against Russian disinformation and hybrid threats, secure energy supplies, protect infrastructure, and deepen ties between Polish and U.K. defense industries. Warsaw is also keenly interested in the extension of France’s “nuclear umbrella” to cover its European allies or alternatively to develop its own nuclear arsenal as a deterrent against Russia, given the growing doubts about U.S. commitments to defend NATO (Notes from Poland, March 10).

Poland’s military expansion is taking place amid a presidential election campaign, scheduled for May 18, in which neither of the two major political camps wants to be perceived as weak on national security. Duda will be stepping down in August after having served two five-year terms.  If no candidate wins over 50 percent of the vote in May’s election, a run-off between the top two candidates will take place on June 1. According to the most recent opinion polls, the frontrunner, with 36 percent support, is Rafal Trzaskowski, the mayor of Warsaw and the candidate of Tusk’s centrist Civic Coalition (Koalicja Obywatelska, KO) (Ewybory.eu, March 22–28). The PiS-backed candidate, historian Karol Nawrocki, is currently second in the polls with about 26 percent support. This will make the second round of balloting less predictable, as Sławomir Mentzen, the candidate of the ultra-nationalist Kenfederacja movement, is poised to come third in the first round and many of his voters may turn to Nawrocki in the second round (Notes from Poland, February 28).

In its election messages, the PiS opposition has accused Trzaskowski and the Tusk government of being weak on defense, soft on illegal migration, and beholden to German interests. To counter these charges, the Prime Minister has positioned himself as a defense hawk in Europe, forged closer ties with the United Kingdom and France, and refused to comply with the European Union’s Pact on Migration and Asylum that would have obliged Poland to accommodate illegal immigrants (Euronews, February 7). Regardless of who is elected president, it seems certain that Poland will continue to strengthen its defenses and expand its military capabilities as war with Russia looms on the horizon.