PROBLEMS WITH THE COTTON HARVEST IN UZBEKISTAN?

President Islam Karimov has expressed his concern over the slow pace of the cotton harvest in Uzbekistan. As of October 23, some 3,360,718 tons of cotton (84 percent of the four million-ton goal) have been harvested in the country, largely through traditional hand-picking methods. Karimov noted that nearly 1.9 million people are variously employed in the harvesting this season and he cited two regions in particular — Namangan and Fergana — as falling behind schedule.

The importance of the cotton harvest for the Uzbek economy cannot be underestimated. According to IMF statistics, 46 percent of Uzbekistan’s 1996 export earnings came from cotton sales, and while there is a concerted effort to diversify the economy and current exports, cotton remains king. Thus, the success of the 1997 harvest will go a long way toward determining Uzbekistan’s balance of payments for the year. (Uzbek radio, October 24)

A poor harvest could carry serious repercussions for Uzbekistan. The economy will suffer if Uzbekistan cannot use the much-needed revenues to purchase grain and other commodities on the international market. In 1995 and 1996, Uzbekistan had to rely on its reserves to make up losses, an action which probably contributed directly to the country’s disastrous monetary conversion program in the fall of 1996. Early this year, Karimov made it clear that a repetition of past shortfalls was unacceptable and that it was imperative Uzbekistan fulfill its target levels. The political consequences of a poor harvest will most likely be another round of high-level dismissals. Last year a number of officials — from the prime minister to regional leaders — lost their jobs due to inadequate monitoring of harvest figures and related inefficiencies and corruption. As early as July, First Deputy Prime Minister Ismail Jurabekov was put in charge of a committee to oversee the harvest results and, it is presumed, to evaluate the performances of the key regional personnel responsible for the harvest itself. As regional harvest figures are still incomplete, it is too early to begin guessing who will be targeted.

The good news is that Uzbekistan’s industrial production for the first three quarters of 1997 (180 billion som) increased by almost 20 percent as compared to the same period last year. Mechanical engineering specifically was up by an impressive 74 percent, although the opening of the Daewoo plant in the Fergana Valley is largely responsible for this. According to a Cabinet of Ministers report, such growth rates only underscore the need to continue diversifying the economy. (Biznes-Vestnik Vostoka, October 23) Industrial growth, moreover, may fail to compensate for another poor cotton harvest, and estimated GDP growth rates issued by various international agencies and the Uzbek government, which range from 3.4 percent to 5.2 percent, could be scaled back as a result.

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