Russia Intends to Change Demographic Situation in Occupied Abkhazia

Executive Summary:

• Pro-Russian officials in Abkhazia are lobbying for the adoption of laws that will allow Russian citizens to buy real estate in the breakaway republic, where, in the 1990s, with the help of the Russian army, separatists carried out the ethnic cleansing of the Georgian population.
• Abkhaz society continues to resist the adoption of laws on apartments and “apart-hotels” and others related to the socioeconomic development of eastern Abkhazia, fearing that these measures will lead to the settlement of Abkhazia by Russians, not Abkhazians.
• Russia has demanded that Sukhumi drop restrictions on foreigners’ purchase of real estate in Abkhazia to ensure Moscow’s long-term interests in the region. However, due to the resistance of Abkhaz society, pro-Russian officials have been forced to postpone these decisions to avoid mass protests.

On July 17, the Parliamentary Committee on Economic Policy and Reforms in occupied Abkhazia presented the draft law “On Measures to Raise the Level of Socio-Economic Development of Ochamchire, Tkvarcheli, and Gali Districts.” The new measure provides for the construction of apartments and “apart-hotels” (i.e., apartment complexes) in the eastern part of Abkhazia (Abkhaz World, July 19). Opposition figures reportedly did not learn of the committee hearing until the day before. They submitted requests to allow civil society representatives and political figures in Abkhazia to attend the meeting but were quickly rejected. Only state and pro-Russian news agencies were allowed to attend and cover the hearing (Ekhokavkaza, July 17). Protesters gathered outside parliament to protest the law and demand entry into the building. Verbal altercations between the protesters and police also took place (Ekhokavkaza, July 17). The draft law’s most controversial aspect is the clause allowing foreign nationals to purchase prospective real estate. Some of the demonstrators were particularly concerned that Russian nationals may buy up a disproportionate amount of the new apartments, leading to an increased ethnic Russian presence in the breakaway republic. The Abkhaz government’s new initiative seems to have the blessing of the Kremlin and may be seen as an effort to “annex” the region through informal means (see EDM, November 20, 2023). Although this draft was withdrawn on July 25 due to the protests, journalists and activists warn that this likely will not last and, similar to Georgia’s Russian-inspired “foreign agents” law, “may return under a different name, or the authorities will create a situation in which protests will not be effective” (OC-Media, July 25).

One opponent of the law on apartments, oppositionist Jansugh Adleiba, drove to the parliament and fired several shots in the air from a hunting rifle. He was later arrested in the Abkhaz capital of Sukhumi. The armed incident occurred when Aslan Bzhania, the self-declared president of Abkhazia, was present at a parliamentary committee meeting for the first time in history (Abkhaz World, July 17). The inclusion of Bzhania in the parliamentary discussion (even before consideration of the law at the plenary session of the legislative body) confirms how much importance Abkhaz officials and their Moscow handlers attach to “legislation on real estate” in the Black Sea republic.

The new “apartment law,” as many in Abkhazia refer to the legal measure, is an updated version of last year’s draft law “On the Regulation of the Legal Status of Apart-Hotels and Apartments.” The original draft allowed Russians to buy real estate in occupied Abkhazia. The law was not adopted after violent protests took place throughout the occupied republic (Abkhaz World, July 19).

The sale of real estate and land to foreigners in Abkhazia is still prohibited. Restrictions related to the purchase of property in Abkhazia for Russian citizens have consistently been a source of irritation for high-ranking Russian officials (Civil.ge, November 10, 2021; OC Media, November 17, 2021; see EDM, December 8, 2021). For years, Abkhaz officials have tried and succeeded in postponing consideration of the issue. The Russian side’s request, however, was never fully removed from the agenda.

Experts familiar with the Abkhaz situation say that Moscow is lobbying for these laws in full awareness that no regulations in Abkhazia prohibit Abkhazians who have lived in Türkiye since the 19th-century Caucasian War from purchasing real estate in the region. David Avalishvili from the independent outlet Nation.ge said in a July 22 interview with this author that the Kremlin intends to benefit Russians in an effort to change the demographic situation in Abkhazia (Author’s interview, July 22). He pointed out, “Today, about 250,000 people live in Abkhazia. These are mainly Abkhazians and Armenians. Abkhaz separatists, with the help of the Russian army, expelled ethnic Georgians from almost the entire territory of Abkhazia except the Gali region, where about 40,000 Georgians live.” The Georgian expert added, “Laws initiated by Abkhaz President Aslan Bzhania under obvious pressure from Moscow will allow Russia to populate Abkhazia with Russians, the number of whom will at least be comparable to the size of the Abkhaz population.” Avalishvili concluded, “Abkhazians, who have been Turkish residents since the 19th century, do not speak Russian, have a different mentality, are not historically loyal to the Kremlin, and are dangerous for Russia’s strategic interest, not only in Abkhazia itself but in the North Caucasus as well. … Therefore, Russia is trying to be proactive before the process of repatriation of Abkhazians from Türkiye begins.”

Moscow is trying to strengthen its position in Abkhazia, among other reasons, because Russian troops are stationed there. Additionally, during the war against Ukraine, Russia began to build a naval base in the Abkhaz port of Ochamchire (Eurasianet, January 19). Thus, the Kremlin likely hopes to protect these interests in lobbying for the “apartment law” and other measures.

The main argument against Moscow’s lobbying in Abkhazia is that it will upset the overall demographic balance in the region. Although the law does not give Russian apartment owners the opportunity to apply for citizenship directly, many loopholes exist for obtaining an Abkhaz passport if someone resides permanently in the breakaway republic. Additionally, worries are growing that, given the current level of corruption, the best lands, including those under conservation, will be used for the construction of apartments and apart-hotels (Geabconflict.jam-news, January 4).

The Abkhaz parliament has not announced when it will officially discuss the law during the first reading in a plenary session. The “apartment law,” however, is only one of many laws, bills, and official decisions that the Kremlin is lobbying for in Abkhazia to strengthen its strategic positions on the Black Sea coast. This includes the potential adoption of the law “On Foreign Agents,” widespread privatization with the participation of Russian oligarchs close to the Kremlin, the transfer to Russia of the largest hydroelectric power station in the Caucasus and the entire energy infrastructure of Abkhazia, and the personal transfer to Russian President Vladimir Putin of a huge villa in Pitsunda (Civil.ge, November 20, 2023)

None of these decisions have been made yet in Abkhazia due to societal resistance and the opposition. Some Abkhaz officials fear that the Kremlin will begin to impose sanctions on Abkhazia, specifically closing the border and limiting funding for the Abkhaz budget, in an effort to force Sukhumi to meet its demands.