Russian Intelligence Strategizes to Keep Georgian Dream in Power

Executive Summary:

• The Russian Foreign Intelligence (SVR) has been accusing the European Union of conducting influence campaigns in Georgia through funding anti-government protests. EU officials denied these claims, calling them a disinformation campaign aimed at undermining EU-Georgia relations.
• The ruling Georgian Dream party has escalated tensions with the European Union by accusing EU Ambassador to Georgia Paweł Herczyński and other European diplomats of political interference.
• The Georgian government is leaning toward strengthening its relations with Russia despite its EU candidate status. Local observers warn that Georgian Dream may seek Russian support to retain power even through military intervention.

On February 27, the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) reported that EU leadership intends to maintain its influence, or what the SVR deems “subversive actions,”  in Georgia at any cost. The SVR claimed that the European Union allocated 50,000 euros ($54,586) for this purpose and plans to pay anti-government protesters 120 euros ($130) per day. According to Russian intelligence, if the Georgian government attempts to block these funding channels, the European Union will deliver cash to Georgia with the help of EU-country embassies in Armenia (RIA Novosti, February 27). The EU ambassador to Georgia Paweł Herczyński called these accusations “an outrageous lie that has nothing to do with reality” (Netgazeti.ge, February 28). The EU Spokesperson for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Anouar El Anouni, called this a Russian disinformation campaign aimed at manipulation and sowing distrust (Interpressnews.ge, February 28).

This is just one of the SVR’s claims that indicate Russia’s involvement in Georgia’s internal politics, markedly the preservation of the ruling Georgian Dream party. The SVR has accused the United States of attempting to organize a revolution in Georgia on multiple occasions, although this time, both Russia and the Georgian government have chosen the European Union as their main target (TASS, July 9, 2024). Georgia’s ruling elite, in tandem with Russian intelligence, has crossed the red lines of diplomatic etiquette toward the European Union, accusing Herczyński of collusion with a mythical deep state. Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze said Herczyński is “complicit in violence” (Civil Georgia, February 25). Additionally, Georgia’s ruling elite is irritated by Herczyński holding meetings with representatives of the cultural sphere and with the country’s youth who have been involved in the more than three-month-long anti-government protests (see EDM, December 6, 2024; Facebook.com/EUinGeorgia, February 13).  

On February 25, the Chairman of the Georgian Parliament, Shalva Papuashvili, stated that the European Union did not appoint Herczyński as a prosecutor and that he should stop moralizing and reproaching the Georgian people and begin to fulfill his duties (Imedi.ge, February 25). The EU ambassador’s statement that “the European Union cannot tolerate violence, impunity, and intimidation, which has been ongoing for almost three months now” preceded this (Interpressnews.ge, February 24).

The SVR’s statement simultaneously discredits the European Union and the participants of the anti-government protests. This statement coincided with the news about the launch of the European Union’s new program Resilient, Engaged, Active Civil Society for Transformation (REACT) for Georgia. REACT has a budget of only 1,568,328 euros ($1,713,327) for 2025–2027 to support Georgian civil society organizations, which has become a cause of irritation for the Georgian Dream (EU4Georgia, February 25; 1TV.ge, February 27). Each year, the European Union has spent about 85–100 million euros ($92–109 million) in Georgia to finance various programs, mostly government programs. Only a small portion of this money has been used to support civil society and the media in Georgia. After USAID and the National Endowment for Democracy stopped supporting media programs for Georgian non-governmental organizations (NGOs), the European Union decided to compensate for these losses (Interpressnews.ge, February 28).

Georgian Dream is targeting not only Herczyński but also individual ambassadors of other EU countries. Starting in 2024, German Ambassador Peter Fischer was one of the main targets of the Georgian Dream. Targeting Germany is sensitive for the leaders of the Georgian Dream as a number of Georgian Dream officials, including Georgia’s prime minister and chairman of parliament, hold academic degrees from German universities (National Parliamentary Library of Georgia; Parliament of Georgia, accessed March 12). Kobakhidze accused the German Ambassador to Georgia, Peter Fischer, of trying to spoil the traditional friendship between the two countries (Civil Georgia, February 27). Just a few days ago, Kobakhidze stated, “Germany today does not have an ambassador in Georgia, they only have a representative in the radical opposition,” hinting that the German ambassador is in close contact with the Georgian opposition (Mtavari Channel, June 24, 2024; Interpressnews, March 4). Kobakhidze made this statement after Fischer wrote, “The German Ministry of Education has frozen the planned upgrade of German-Georgia science cooperation, including student mobility, research, and Georgia in EU programs – due to Georgian curbs on academic freedom and halt of EU accession. Georgians who attended German universities, mostly on scholarships – know the loss” (X.com/Diplo_Peter, February 26).

Even though the European Union has suspended contacts with Georgian Dream officials and funding for state programs since October 2024, it is not prepared for a final severance of relations with Georgia (Facebook.com/EUinGeorgia, October 8, 2024). The session of the Informal General Affairs Council meeting held in Warsaw on February 17–18 is evidence of this. Although representatives of Georgian Dream were not invited, the Polish presidency of the Council of the European Union’s official X account wrote, “An empty seat was left for Georgia,” (X.com/POLAND25EU, February 18). The Minister for the European Union of Poland Adam Szłapka stated, “The empty chair left for Georgia is expected to be occupied again soon. This is the ambition and expectation of the Georgian people” (X.com/POLAND25EU, February 18).

The Kremlin has repeatedly attempted to draw Georgia into its 3+3 format. The format currently includes Iran, Türkiye, Russia, Azerbaijan, and Armenia. On February 19, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that the doors are open for Georgia in the “3+3” format (TASS, February 19; see EDM, March 5). Before this, the Georgian officials categorically denied the possibility of Georgia joining this format, but now they no longer rule out such a possibility. The first deputy chairman of the Georgian parliament, Giorgi Volski, stated that “at present, there are no visible circumstances for Georgia’s inclusion in this format,” although he does not rule this out in the future (Radio Tavisupleba, February 20).

There are two paths for Georgia, one aligned with Russia and the other with the European Union. As local observers believe, however, Georgian Dream will rely more on Russian support to retain power and, if necessary, even call on the Russian military for help (Interpressnews.ge, February 28). It is paradoxical but evident that the government of a country with the status of an EU candidate does not consider the European Union, but rather the Russian SVR to be its natural ally.