Strategic Snapshot: Caspian Littoral States Conduct Multi-Vector Diplomacy, Trade, and Defense

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(Source: Ministry of Defense of the Republic of Kazakhstan)

The Caspian Sea, once considered a “Russian lake,” is becoming a more multipolar space. Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan have expanded their navies, built new security accords with each other, and increased cooperation with Türkiye. Russia has responded with naval cooperation with Iran, but this alliance is more reactive than proactive, reflecting Moscow’s declining ability to solely dictate Caspian security. Kazakhstan has emerged as the most dynamic actor in this shift, cultivating a “middle power” identity: investing in domestic defense industries, diversifying military imports, and embracing multivector diplomacy to reduce dependence on Moscow. Kazakhstan’s naval exercises with Azerbaijan, such as Caspian Breeze–2025, challenge Russia’s hegemony in the region.

Russia’s ability to use the Caspian for strategic projects, including the International North–South Trade Corridor (INSTC) to Iran and India, now faces competition from east–west routes through Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan. Falling Caspian water levels are accelerating this trend. Russia’s large ships struggle in shallow waters, while Kazakhstan’s smaller, more flexible vessels thrive. The ecological crisis also threatens Moscow’s transport routes, including the viability of the Volga-Don canal, further limiting its reach.

Moscow’s war against Ukraine and Western sanctions have accelerated demand for trade routes from Asia to Europe that avoid Russia. The east–west Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR), also called the Middle Corridor, connects the People’s Republic of China (PRC), Central Asia, the South Caucasus, and Europe while bypassing Russia. Through heavy investment in infrastructure, including port modernization, rail upgrades, and integration with pipelines, Azerbaijan has positioned itself as a key transit state, making the Port of Baku, located on Azerbaijan’s Caspian Coast, central to the TITR. By enabling east–west movement across the Caspian and through the South Caucasus, the TITR offers an alternative to Russian transit, reducing Moscow’s leverage over both Europe and Central Asia.

See Selected Jamestown Analysis on Waning Russian Naval Influence in the Caspian:

Security Competition Intensifies on the Caspian

Paul Goble

July 17, 2024

  • The Caspian Sea is becoming a site of geopolitical conflict as Russia is rapidly losing its dominance over the four other Caspian littoral states: Azerbaijan, Iran, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan.
  • Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan have been expanding their fleets and are now entering into security accords with each other, making them individually and collectively forces to be reckoned with by the other littoral countries and all who want to use the Caspian.
  • In response to increased naval expansion and cooperation among the three Turkic littoral states, Russia is expanding its Caspian naval cooperation with Iran, setting the stage for serious competition between the three Turkic countries and Moscow, allied with Tehran.

Kazakhstan Aims to Modernize Military Through Multivector Diplomacy

Fuad Shahbazov

July 3, 2025

  • In response to shifting regional dynamics primarily driven by Russia’s war against Ukraine, Kazakhstan is reshaping its security posture by reducing military dependence on Moscow and prioritizing self-reliance, regional partnerships, and defense modernization.
  • Astana is focusing on its role as a “middle power,” allowing Kazakhstan to exert greater regional and global influence through integration into multilateral organizations, expanded participation in international initiatives, and diversified defense imports.
  • Kazakhstan has pursued diverse international military collaborations, particularly through joint exercises, weapons co-production, and strategic coordination with Türkiye and Azerbaijan, enabling it to adopt a more independent defense strategy.

Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan Plan Joint Naval Maneuvers in Caspian Near Russian Border

Paul Goble

April 24, 2025

  • Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan have announced they will hold joint naval exercises in the northern portion of the Caspian Sea near Russia’s coastline to prepare for any asymmetrical threat.
  • While this announcement was overshadowed by Russian President Vladimir Putin’s ratification of a cooperation accord with Iran, it may prove as important because it casts doubt on Moscow’s ability to expand its North-South corridor to Iran and the Indian Ocean.
  • This direct challenge to Moscow’s influence in the region is all the greater because Türkiye, which has been helping Azerbaijan expand its navy for years, says that it will do the same for Kazakhstan, which already has more ships on the Caspian than any other littoral state. 

Kazakhstan Rapidly Moving to Become Dominant Naval Power on the Caspian

Paul Goble

January 21, 2025

  • Moscow finds itself challenged in the Caspian Sea by Kazakhstan, whose naval forces there are better prepared to cope with the sea drying up and whose focus is not distracted by conflicts elsewhere.
  • Kremlin hawks such as Nikolai Patrushev are alarmed and calling on the Kremlin to devote more attention to the Caspian, which is key to its north-south corridor plans and the development of ties with Iran, India, and the Global South.
  • Moscow is unlikely to take any major steps until its war in Ukraine ends, and Kazakhstan will use its growing strength on the Caspian to advance its broader interests while others, such as Iran and the People’s Republic of China (PRC), will exploit Russia’s weakened position there as well.

See Selected Jamestown Analysis on Trade Route Bypassing Russia Between the PRC and Europe:

The Port of Baku Facilitates Trans-Eurasian Commerce (Part One) (Part Two)

Vusal Guliyev

  • Azerbaijan has launched the second phase of the Port of Baku’s expansion, aiming to support its growing role in transcontinental trade as the region seeks alternative routes to Europe. Azerbaijan is responding to increased trade through the Middle Corridor with international partnerships and ambitious reforms of its railway and port systems, highlighting Baku’s desire to become a critical node in global trade.
  • Regional instability and Western sanctions on Russia due to its war against Ukraine have increased the importance of the Middle Corridor, which passes through the Port of Baku, as a vital trade route.
  • Increased collaboration with the European Union, the People’s Republic of China (PRC), and other regional players, along with infrastructure upgrades and digitalization initiatives, is transforming the Port of Baku into a key transport hub. Reforms such as standardized cargo procedures, digital customs systems, and regional e-services are streamlining transit operations at the Port of Baku, improving coordination across borders, and enhancing the Middle Corridor’s competitiveness in global logistics.
  • The Port of Baku leads regional green initiatives, but threats from declining water levels in the Caspian Sea and climate change pose long-term risks to port infrastructure and regional transport continuity.

Declining Caspian Water Levels Threaten Russian and Chinese Corridor Plans

Paul Goble

March 18, 2025 

  • The Caspian Sea’s declining water levels are reducing the amount of cargo that ships can carry, undermining Russia and the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC’s) capability to use the sea for their north–south and east–west trade networks.
  • Both Russia and the PRC will continue to use land routes around the Caspian but face complex problems due to a shortage of transportation networks and political instability in the region.
  • Moscow and Beijing will seek new ways to make these corridors work, efforts that will likely put additional pressure on littoral states to allow them to bypass the increasingly bottlenecked Caspian.

Kazakhstan Increases Railway Capacity Along Trans-Caspian International Transport Route

John C. K. Daly

June 9, 2025

  • Kazakhstan is expanding rail cargo capacity on the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR), which uses Kazakhstan to bypass Russian infrastructure between the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and Europe.
  • Major investments, including a second Dostyk-Moiynty rail track and over 1,300 miles of new lines, support Kazakhstan’s growing role in PRC-Europe trade routes.
  • Enhanced rail investments are boosting Kazakhstan’s exports, particularly grain, to the PRC and beyond, reflecting Kazakhstan’s broader “multi-vector” foreign policy, which aims to increase Kazakhstan’s prosperity and influence through trade.

Trade Along Trans-Caspian International Transport Route Surges

John C.K. Daly 

January 28, 2025

  • The Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR), or Middle Corridor, has evolved as a key alternative for trade between Europe and the People’s Republic of China (PRC) due to sanctions against Russia. The route bypasses Russia and transits through Central Asia, the Caucasus, and Türkiye.
  • The TITR has seen a 25-fold increase in freight volumes from the PRC to Europe in 2024, with Azerbaijan playing a pivotal role. This growth aligns with the PRC’s One Belt-One Road initiative, emphasizing regional connectivity.
  • This route highlights how countries in Central Asia and the Caucasus view transit through Russia as a growing economic risk while fostering infrastructure ties between the PRC and European Union offers a more promising economic future.

Multiple Countries Strive to Enhance Middle Corridor Despite Challenges

Vasif Huseynov

October 28, 2024

  • The European Union is working with the countries along the Trans-Caspian Transport Corridor (also known as the Middle Corridor) to support infrastructure development and provide technical assistance for improving standards, digitalization, and regional interoperability.
  • Disruptions along the trans-Russia northern route due to Western sanctions against Russia and the unavailability of the trans-Iran southern route have made the Middle Corridor the only viable land route between the two ends of the Eurasian continent.
  • The route faces challenges such as EU-China trade tensions, regional political disputes, and reliance on external powers, which may affect its stability and long-term viability.

Transformation of Caspian Sea Region Into Energy Hub Gaining Momentum (Part One) (Part Two)

Sergey Sukhankin

July 9, 2024 

  • Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and Uzbekistan have formed a plan for the transmission of green energy to the European Union via the Caspian Sea.
  • The use of Caspian routes to transport energy to Europe has increased following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent loss of access to European markets.
  • The countries of Central Asia and the Caucasus hope to leverage their wealth of natural resources and advantageous geography to transform the Caspian Sea region into a major hub for satisfying Europe’s energy needs.
  • The Caspian Sea region looks to become an international energy hub as the European Union seeks alternatives to its energy dependence on Russia through the export of natural gas from littoral Caspian Sea states.
  • Moscow is concerned about the prospect of the Caspian region becoming a facilitator of EU energy security, potentially strengthening political-military cooperation between the historically Russian-leaning littoral Caspian states and Russia’s adversaries.
  • Russia and Iran’s goals of bolstering north–south transit routes and increasing energy exports are at risk if the Caspian Sea region is successful in strengthening connections to Europe and prioritizing east–west routes.

Russia Hopes to Use Caspian Sea Route to Evade Sanctions

Sergey Sukhankin 

March 6, 2024

  • Moscow seeks to boost its struggling economy through increased development of the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) as a real competitor to the Suez Canal and the Bosphorus Strait.
  • Moscow wants the INSTC to open pathways to new markets that circumvent Western monitoring and sanctions to better sustain its war-time economy.
  • Infrastructure development along the INSTC remains meager, an issue that will soon require serious modernization, but the Kremlin sees long-term potential in developing this economic corridor.

See PDF version here.

For more Jamestown coverage on Central Asia, see here; for the South Caucasus, see here.