Strategic Snapshot: Implications of Peace Between Armenia and Azerbaijan

Age: 19 hours

(Source: President of Azerbaijan)

Three decades of conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan have consumed most of their attention on both domestic initiatives and international relations. The unfolding peace process, therefore, has the potential to dramatically change political developments in the South Caucasus. Direct talks over the past two years have produced a draft peace treaty that addresses border delimitation, the disposition of refugees, and the long-contested issue of cross-border transit routes. Each incremental breakthrough reduces the likelihood of renewed large-scale hostilities and reshapes the security architecture of the entire South Caucasus.  

Achieving peace remains fragile, as a few crucial challenges remain unresolved. Armenia seeks iron-clad guarantees against future aggression, while Azerbaijan insists on unfettered access to its Nakhchivan exclave and a change to parts of Armenia’s constitution that contain territorial claims “against Azerbaijan.” Domestic politics in both countries further complicate matters. Armenia’s opposition frames any concession as capitulation, whereas Azerbaijan’s leaders face pressure to capitalize fully on its 2023 military victory. 

The renewed efforts since 2023 toward a genuine peace treaty have come without Russian mediation. Russia has long used the presence of its peacekeepers to cast itself as the sole guarantor of regional security and interfere in any peace process. Russia’s unprovoked full-scale invasion of Ukraine, economic isolation, and failure to prevent or mediate hostilities between Armenia and Azerbaijan in 2023 have led to Armenia seeking a full withdrawal from the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and public rebukes of Russia by Azerbaijan. 

Russia’s weakening influence in the South Caucasus has allowed Armenia and Azerbaijan to explore more multi-vector foreign policies and created new opportunities for bilateral engagement. Armenia has signaled plans to pursue EU membership, and Azerbaijan continues to advance infrastructure plans that would use the South Caucasus to link Central Asia and Europe. The August 8 summit at the White House with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan produced declarations of peace by both leaders, and a pledge for a U.S. presence in future regional transport routes. The summit demonstrated the commitment both countries have toward a final agreement, but the path to full peace will likely take at least one year. 

Selected Jamestown Analysis on Armenia and Azerbaijan

Peace Process

Armenia and Azerbaijan Agree on Next Steps at White House Summit

Onnik James Krikorian

August 12, 2025

Executive Summary:

  • Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, and U.S. President Donald Trump signed a seven-point joint pledge declaring their intention to pursue peace between Azerbaijan and Armenia during an August 8 meeting at the White House. 
  • During the same trip, the countries’ foreign ministers initialed the Agreement on Peace and Establishment of Interstate Relations, a draft of a peace deal which would require a controversial amendment to Armenia’s constitution before being signed or ratified. 
  • In the seven-point joint declaration signed by both leaders, Armenia and Azerbaijan committed to work on a framework for granting development rights to the United States for the newly dubbed Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP), a transport route from Azerbaijan to its Nakhchivan exclave via Armenia previously known as the Zangezur Corridor. 
  • The seven-point declaration and peace agreement draft are widely considered to be an important step toward a final agreement to normalize relations between the two countries, a path that is likely to take at least a year. 

U.S. Role in Armenia–Azerbaijan Transit Corridor Sparks Controversy

Onnik James Krikorian

July 30, 2025

Executive Summary:

  • Tensions linger between Armenia and Azerbaijan over a proposed transit route, better known to many as the Zangezur Corridor, through Armenia that would restore a Soviet-era connection between Azerbaijan and its exclave of Nakhchivan.
  • Reports alleging that the United States had proposed that an American commercial company could manage the Armenian part of the route at first sparked denials from both sides before raising technical and political concerns within the region.
  • For Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, the route through Armenia’s territory is already politically sensitive ahead of next year’s elections. Now there are concerns about regional fractures in the case that it is not handled with caution.

Armenia–Azerbaijan Peace Process Gains Momentum with Abu Dhabi Summit

Vasif Huseynov

July 17, 2025

Executive Summary:

  • The July 10 summit between Armenia and Azerbaijan in Abu Dhabi marks a significant step in the ongoing peace process between the two countries.
  • The summit reflects a broader shift in the South Caucasus, as Armenia and Azerbaijan strive for strategic autonomy rather than dependence on foreign powers such as the European Union or Moscow.
  • While the summit was notable for its constructive atmosphere, disputes over the Zangezur Corridor, as well as domestic pressure against Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, could stall further progress.

Azerbaijan–Armenia–Georgia Trilateral Format May be Platform for Regional Decision-Making

Emil Avdaliani

April 29, 2025

Executive Summary:

  • Georgia hosted the foreign ministers of Armenia and Azerbaijan on April 17 for a closed trilateral summit to strengthen mutually beneficial cooperation between the countries and geopolitical stability of the South Caucasus.
  • Armenia and Azerbaijan’s progress, albeit slow, in signing a peace agreement over disputed territories remains a signal of their interest in constructing neighborly relations and may be aided by the trilateral cooperation format. 
  • The new format is yet another demonstration that the South Caucasus states are shifting their foreign policies and attempting to gain autonomy as regional, trilateral decision-makers while reducing reliance on external powers such as Russia and Iran.  

Azerbaijan–Armenia Peace Deal Faces Hurdles

Onnik James Krikorian

March 24, 2025

Executive Summary: 

  • Armenia and Azerbaijan have finalized the text of a long-awaited “Agreement on Peace and Establishment of Interstate Relations.” The announcement came unexpectedly from Baku and was confirmed soon after by Yerevan.
  • Yerevan seeks to sign the agreement quickly, while Baku says that Armenia must first remove a controversial preamble in its constitution that refers to what amounts to territorial claims on the former Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Oblast.
  • The opposition in Armenia maintains that Azerbaijan will not sign the agreement if it believes that it can gain more concessions from Armenia. 

Stalemate Persists in the Armenia–Azerbaijan Peace Process

Vasif Huseynov

February 24, 2025

Executive Summary:

  • Armenia and Azerbaijan remain at an impasse in their ongoing peace process, facing the conditions of withdrawing international lawsuits and agreeing on a ban against third-party military forces along their border.
  • Armenia’s constitutional claims over Karabakh and the dissolution of the OSCE Minsk Group remain sensitive topics. Azerbaijan insists on amending Armenia’s constitution to eliminate future territorial disputes, while Armenia faces legal and political hurdles in making such changes.
  • Disagreements over reopening transportation links further hinder the peace process. Azerbaijan demands an “unimpeded” land passage to its Nakhchivan exclave via Armenia’s Meghri region, while Armenia insists on controlled transit. This unresolved dispute continues to block progress toward a final agreement.

 

Regional Relations

Russia–Azerbaijan Tensions Escalate to Unprecedented Level

Vasif Huseynov

July 7, 2025 

Executive Summary:

  • A Russian raid in Ekaterinburg targeting ethnic Azerbaijanis on June 27 resulted in deaths, injuries, and allegations of torture. This ignited a severe diplomatic crisis, with Baku accusing Moscow of ethnic violence and launching a criminal investigation.
  • Russia-Azerbaijan relations have been deteriorating since the crash of Azerbaijan Airlines Flight 8243 in December 2024, leading to canceled high-level visits, suspended bilateral commissions and Russian cultural events, and harsh criticism of Russia in Azerbaijani state media.
  • Azerbaijan appears to be leveraging the crisis to push for a more equal relationship with Russia, although a complete break in relations remains unlikely due to strong political and economic ties.

Azerbaijan–Georgia Ties Strengthened by Shared Stances on Key Regional Issues

Vasif Huseynov

April 22, 2025 

Executive Summary:

  • Georgian President Mikheil Kavelashvili’s first official foreign visit to Azerbaijan reflects a pivot in Georgia’s foreign policy toward regional partnership amid strained relations with the European Union and Western partners.
  • Georgia and Azerbaijan reaffirmed their opposition to foreign intervention in South Caucasus affairs, underscoring a mutual belief that regional challenges should be addressed internally without external influence.
  • Tbilisi and Baku emphasized collaboration on strategic energy and transport corridors, such as the Middle Corridor, while exploring trilateral engagement with Armenia, signaling potential for a more cohesive and independent framework in the South Caucasus.

Armenia and Azerbaijan Weigh in as Ruling Georgian Party Claims Controversial Victory

Onnik James Krikorian

November 9, 2024 

Executive Summary:

  • The ruling Georgian Dream secured re-election for another four-year term, and ethnic Azerbaijani and Armenian populations in Georgia, who tend to support the ruling party, were blamed by opposition groups for contributing to Georgian Dream’s victory.
  • Allegations are circulating about the manipulation of minority votes in the elections, with accusations that Baku encouraged ethnic Azerbaijanis in Georgia to support the ruling party. This has sparked tension and ethnic stereotyping within the political discourse.
  • Critics argue that Georgian Dream’s victory indicates a shift toward Russia, which may have implications for Armenia’s foreign policy and the broader South Caucasus region, as Armenia depends on Georgia for trade and transit.

New Azerbaijan–Iran Railway Agreement Grapples With Regional Tensions

Fuad Shahbazov

November 18, 2024

Executive Summary:

  • In October, Azerbaijani and Iranian officials discussed the Aras Corridor railway project, a strategic alternative to the contested Zangezur Corridor, amid ongoing Azerbaijan-Armenia tensions and diplomatic efforts to enhance regional connectivity following the 2020 Karabakh War.
  • The Aras Corridor strengthens Azerbaijan–Türkiye–Central Asia ties and aligns with Iran’s International North-South Transportation Corridor, enhancing regional connectivity and trade routes toward Russia.
  • Azerbaijan’s focus on the Aras Corridor reflects regional tensions, including opposition to the Zangezur Corridor, Iran-Israel conflicts, and Russia’s war against Ukraine. The project highlights Azerbaijan’s strategy of adapting to navigate shifting alliances and maintain regional goals.

Armenia Reaches ‘Point of No Return’ in Withdrawal From CSTO

Vali Kaleji

August 5, 2024

Executive Summary:

  • On July 12, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan confirmed that Armenia plans to withdraw from the Russian-dominated Collective Security Treaty Organization. This confirmation follows agreements for Russian border guards to leave Armenia, further moving Yerevan away from Russian influence.
  • For now, Yerevan has only frozen participation in the CSTO, with the intention to officially leave the body in the near future. When Armenia does, the organization will lose its influence over the South Caucasus, and Russia will no longer have as strong of a foothold in the region.
  • Armenia’s strategic shift away from Russia signifies a transformation in its geopolitical stance, seeking greater autonomy, alignment, and cooperation with Western and regional powers.

 

Developing Multi-Vector Foreign Policies

Azerbaijan and the People’s Republic of China Announce Comprehensive Strategic Partnership

Fuad Shahbazov

May 1, 2025 

Executive Summary:

  • On April 22, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev conducted a state visit to the People’s Republic of China (PRC) to strengthen Azerbaijan’s role as a transit hub between the PRC, Central Asia, and Europe and expand the Azerbaijan-PRC partnership to new spheres.
  • Azerbaijan–PRC cooperation has been based on Azerbaijan’s role as a transit hub but is evolving to include cooperation in energy and key industrial sectors, such as oil and gas, metallurgy, construction materials, pharmaceuticals, and food production.
  • Azerbaijan has devoted enormous resources to attracting PRC and Western use of the Middle Corridor, massively improving and modernizing its trade infrastructure, and optimizing cargo transportation.

Azerbaijan, Israel, and United States Seek Trilateral Cooperation Format

Vasif Huseynov

March 26, 2025 

Executive Summary:

  • Israel announced on March 6 that it is in discussions with the United States to establish trilateral cooperation with Azerbaijan, deepening long-standing ties between Israel and Azerbaijan in security, energy, and diplomacy.
  • This trilateral initiative positions Azerbaijan as a bridge between the Middle East, the South Caucasus, and the West, following high-level visits and growing cooperation in energy and counterterrorism between Azerbaijan and Israel.
  • The proposed trilateral format may strengthen Azerbaijan-U.S. relations, particularly under the new U.S. administration, and support Azerbaijan’s potential candidacy for inclusion in the Abraham Accords and counterbalance regional threats, especially from Iran.

Armenia Moves Toward Europe While Still Dependent on Russia

Onnik James Krikorian

January 28, 2025

Executive Summary:

  • Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has signaled plans to pursue EU membership, which Moscow views as an attempt by Brussels and Washington D.C. to fully replace it.
  • Armenia’s reliance on Russia for trade complicates the situation. The economic challenges posed by such a pivot mean the government is likely to face significant domestic opposition.
  • The associated economic and geopolitical costs of EU ascension are potentially substantial despite diversification in the area of defense. The same diversification in terms of energy and trade remains long overdue.

Pakistan Strengthens Azerbaijan’s Military Muscle

Syed Fazl-e-Haider

October 23, 2024

Executive Summary:

  • Azerbaijan and Pakistan signed a $1.6 billion arms deal in September to supply Azerbaijan with the joint Pakistani-Chinese JF-17 Thunder Block III fighter jets, strengthening the military partnership between Islamabad and Baku.
  • In the last several years, Baku has been diversifying its international partnerships, especially following Russia’s war in Ukraine. Partnering with Pakistan will create an opening for Azerbaijan to reach South Asian markets.
  • As Azerbaijan aligns with Pakistan, Armenia is deepening military ties with India, potentially setting the stage for a rivalry between India and Pakistan in the South Caucasus.

Military Supplies to Armenia Escalate Tensions in South Caucasus

Vasif Huseynov

August 6, 2024

Executive Summary:

  • Armenia is making moves to distance itself from Russia and reduce economic and military dependence on Moscow through deals with other states, including France, India, and, allegedly, Iran.
  • The expanding military supplies to Armenia are stirring up tensions with neighboring Azerbaijan and threatening the current fragile state of relations between the two countries.
  • Officials in Baku are concerned about this increased militarization, as revanchist-minded political and societal groups in Armenia are calling for a military takeover of Karabakh and other Azerbaijani territories.

 

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For more Jamestown coverage on South Caucasus, see here.