THE MILITARY WAR…

Federal forces claim to have a grip on the northern third of Chechnya, the steppe north of the Terek River. They claim as well to have taken control of the heights on the border with Georgia to the south and to have cut the main road to Ingushetia to the west, completing the encirclement of the rebellious republic. But the town of Bamut near the border with Ingushetia remains outside Russian control, despite two weeks of attack by an armored column. Federal units along the border have poor communications and are several kilometers apart, allowing guerrilla bands some freedom of movement. Units moving toward the Chechen capital of Djohar (as the Chechens renamed Grozny) have similarly poor logistics and could be vulnerable to ambush by Chechen guerrillas.

There is wide speculation that Russian forces intend to move on Djohar, but only after massive bombardment, first by air, then by artillery. On Thursday, some ten Russian missiles struck in Djohar, hitting the central market and destroying a maternity hospital. Local officials reported 118 killed and over 400 injured. Russian media did not carry the news until Friday, when the story was blown back from the Western press. Russian military spokesmen first denied the incident, then described it as an attack on an “arms bazaar,” and then accused the Chechens of forming “disinformation battalions” and taking hostages to use as “human shields.” Djohar is without water or power or communications. Essentially all news on the situation in Chechnya now comes from Russian sources.