The State Statistical Committee Goskomstat reported that industrial production is up 7 percent in the first nine months of 1999 over the same period in 1998. The result virtually ensures that Moscow will report growth in gross domestic product of at least two percent this year. This growth has four sources. The first is contrast. It is easy to look good in comparison to 1998, the year of the crash, when the economy contracted by over four percent. The second is import substitution. The crash drove the ruble cost of imports up about 400 percent, making many domestic goods suddenly competitive. The third is export prices. The dollar price of oil and gas is up about 80 percent in the past year. The fourth is fudge. Even the Finance Ministry has criticized Goskomstat figures, which often do not hang together. Increased output seems inconsistent with a reported 9 percent drop in consumer spending (in the first six months) and one percent drop in investment (in the first seven months). It is hard to say where the additional production is going–perhaps into inventory.