UKRAINE

faces an August 29 due date for $450 million in hard-currency debt. Another $500 million in hryvna bonds falls due at about the same time. Neither domestic nor foreign lenders want to roll this debt over. Falling prices on Ukraine’s foreign debt have driven yields over 25%, while one-year hryvna bonds were yielding 65% last week. A visiting IMF delegation reached agreement on conditions for a possible $2.5 billion loan to be disbursed over three years, including deficit reduction, trade liberalization, tax reform, and deregulation. But the parliament, which under the constitution must approve the budget, is in the control of a weak but exceedingly mischievous left-wing coalition. President Leonid Kuchma has issued a number of decrees to bring Ukraine into compliance with IMF conditions, but parliament, now in recess, may yet vote them down. The IMF Board will not consider the Ukrainian agreement until August 24. If approved, the first disbursement would be no more than $250 million. Even in favorable circumstances, the government’s end-of-August billion-dollar IOU will be hard to cover.