Ukraine Braces for Another Hard Winter

Executive Summary:

• Ahead of winter, Russia launched another campaign of combined air strikes on Ukraine’s critical infrastructure, including energy, gas production, and railway facilities.
• Russia is continually upgrading its missiles and strike drones, thereby enhancing the effectiveness of its air attacks. Several Ukrainian cities have already been severely affected by this, and in some areas, the situation is critical.
• Drones have become a key element of the attack, while Ukraine is actively developing interceptor drones as an effective and inexpensive means of countering massive UAV attacks by Russia.
• Long-range weapons, both domestic and, potentially, U.S.-supplied Tomahawk cruise missiles, could become a powerful means of deterrence or retaliation.

On the night of October 10, the Russian army launched a combined air strike on Ukraine. In total, the Ukrainian Air Force detected 497 air attack units, comprising 32 missiles (both ballistic and cruise) and 465 unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) of various types (Telegram/@ComAFUA, October 10). Russia’s focus was on degrading critical infrastructure, primarily energy facilities. Damage to the Kyiv Thermal Power Plant (TPP-6) left several districts in Kyiv and the Kyiv oblast without power. Additionally, problems with electricity, gas, and water supplies were reported in the Zaporizhzhia, Sumy, Poltava, and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts (BBC Ukraine, October 10).

On October 7, during a meeting with the ambassadors of the Group of Seven (G7) countries, Ukrainian Energy Minister Svitlana Grinchuk stated that Russian troops had carried out 26 separate strikes on Ukrainian energy facilities in one day (Ministry of Energy of Ukraine, October 7). Later that evening, Russia attacked the DTEK thermal power plant, one of Ukraine’s largest energy companies. According to the company, two power engineers were injured, and the attack caused significant damage to the plant’s equipment. After the air strike ended, energy engineers quickly began to repair the damage (DTEK, October 8). Due to Russian strikes, more than half of Ukrainian natural gas facilities were destroyed, significantly decreasing gas production (Bloomberg; The Kyiv Independent, October 9). On October 16, the Russian army launched another combined strike on a gas production facility in the Poltava region. Due to the attack, the company was forced to suspend operations (Telegram/@dtek_ua, October 16).

These are just a few episodes from a recent series of Russian air strikes on Ukraine’s critical infrastructure. In recent weeks, Russia has significantly intensified its attacks on energy facilities, repeating a similar pattern to that observed in the fall and winter of 2022, 2023, and 2024. Blackouts are being reported in the Sumy, Chernihiv, Odesa, and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts. Some cities, such as Shostka in the Sumy oblast, have no electricity or water supply, with border areas suffering the most (TSN, October 7; RBC-Ukraine, October 8; Ministry of Energy of Ukraine, October 9).

Earlier, Serhii Sternenko, a blogger and head of one of the biggest Ukrainian foundations that develops and supplies strike UAVs (including interceptor drones for air defense) to units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU), sharply criticized the air defense system in the Chernihiv oblast. According to Sternenko, a significant gap exists in air defense capabilities in this region, and neither the military nor civilian leadership is interested in resolving the situation (X/@sternenko, October 2). Later, he noted that contact had been established and work in this area had begun (X/@sternenko, October 2).

One of the notable features of this year’s Russian attacks is an increased focus on railway infrastructure, a vital element of Ukrainian military logistics. The Russian Federation is deliberately destroying both junction stations and rolling stock, in particular locomotives. According to Serhiy “Flash” Beskrestnov, a military expert in electronic warfare, if Ukrainian officials do not take urgent action, Russia will destroy a significant part of the country’s railway capabilities (Telegram/@serhii_flash, October 8).

Damage to gas production facilities leads to a shortage of gas needed to get through the winter. If the attacks continue, Ukraine will be forced to purchase approximately 4.4 billion cubic meters of natural gas, or around 20 percent of its annual consumption. According to Energy Minister Svitlana Grinchuk, the final volume will depend on the speed of repairs and the scale of further Russian attacks. The estimated cost of the needed fuel is $2.3 billion, and Ukraine has already requested financial assistance from its international partners (Economichna Pravda, October 9).

The Russian military is constantly enhancing its air attack capabilities, including cruise and ballistic missiles, as well as strike drones. Vladyslav Vlasiuk, advisor and authorized representative of the President of Ukraine on Sanctions Policy, noted that the Kremlin is currently using four different types of Shahed/Geran strike UAVs, where critical elements are still composed of foreign components (Facebook/vladyslav.vlasiuk, August 12; X/@SergiyKyslytsya, October 8). Additionally, Russian engineers are continually working to improve them. Serhiy Beskrestnov emphasized that modern variations of the Shahed/Geran strike UAVs are equipped with a Chinese-made modem, which enables them to establish a distributed mesh network. With this, a group of drones can relay control signals to each other, making defense using electronic warfare more difficult (X/@GrandpaRoy2, October 9). Recent videos of the attacks also show that drones can now be remotely controlled by operators in real-time, allowing them to attack moving targets such as locomotives (Militarnyi, October 1).

Now, Russia is conducting local attacks on the frontline and border regions, primarily in the Sumy and Chernihiv oblasts. Russia often attacks with dozens of drones focused on a single target. Furthermore, instead of large simultaneous attacks across Ukraine mainly at night—as was the case in 2022–2024—Russia now conducts a series of round-the-clock attacks (Ukrainska Pravda, October 16). This, in turn, decreases the effectiveness of Ukrainian air defense systems and leads to more devastating consequences from the Russian strikes.

This development requires an urgent response from the Ukrainian authorities. AFU Commander-in-Chief General Oleksandr Syrskyi announced the formation of an Air Defense Unmanned Systems Command within the Ukrainian Air Force. According to him, most Russian strike drones are currently being destroyed by interceptor drones. To this end, plans are underway to increase the number of crews and enhance their capabilities (Telegram/@osirskiy, October 2). According to Sternenko, as of September 29, around 500 Shahed/Geran UAVs had already been destroyed using interceptor drones, which is a high indicator of their effectiveness (X/@sternenko, September 29). During one of the recent attacks on the Chernihiv oblast, these drones were used for defense, and 22 out of 36 Russian Shahed-type drones were shot down (Mezha, October 9).

The total cost of such systems, including the control station, software, and other associated expenses, is approximately $35,000. The price of the drones can vary from $2,500 to $5,000, depending on the model. This remains low compared to the older traditional air defense assets, especially missiles (Defense Express, October 2). These parameters make interceptor drones attractive not only to Ukraine. After a series of incidents involving drones of unknown origin in the European Union, and Denmark in particular, the Danish military became actively interested in Ukraine’s experience in destroying UAVs. On October 4, a Ukrainian UAV crew, using a Ukrainian-made Sting drone, successfully destroyed a Danish Banshee target drone during a NATO-observed demonstration in Denmark (AFU, October 4).

Ukraine is also developing other types of countermeasures to take out enemy drones, in particular,  attack helicopters and light aircraft. New crews are being introduced into service (Telegram/@osirskiy, October 2). Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said during a joint press conference with Dutch Prime Minister Dick Schoof on October 6 that the country would prepare for all challenges in the energy sector, but acknowledged that it is difficult to predict how the situation would unfold. At the same time, Zelenskyy emphasized that work is underway to increase the production of long-range weapons so that Russia also “feels what we feel” (Economichna Pravda, October 6). Earlier, the Ukrainian leader emphasized the tit for tat approach and threatened to organize a blackout in Moscow in case of electricity problems in Kyiv (Radio Svoboda, September 27).

Ukraine’s possession of weapons capable of launching symmetrical strikes against energy facilities in Russia is another factor distinguishing the current winter from previous ones. In addition to regular strikes on oil facilities, Ukraine has begun attacks on Russia’s energy infrastructure. For example, after strikes on a TPP on the night of September 28, the Russian city of Belgorod suffered a power outage (DW, September 28). On October 6, a partial blackout in Belgorod happened again after the strike on the power substation “Luch” (TSN, October 6). In a comment to the press, Zelenskyy explained that Ukraine is focusing on striking targets in the Belgorod oblast because that is where Russia is launching most of its attacks on Kharkiv (TSN, October 9). The attacks proved painful for Moscow, so it is not a coincidence that General Valery Gerasimov, Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, named Ukrainian drone and missile production facilities as the highest priority targets for Russian strikes (TASS, October 7).

On October 9, Zelenskyy confirmed the first successful use of the latest Flamingo cruise missiles in conjunction with the already well-known Neptune missiles. Without revealing specific details, he reported “the first tangible results” (Ukrinform, October 9). Ukrainian long-range weapons, such as the Neptune and Flamingo, could become a key factor in retaliation or deterrence. Unlike relatively light drones, they can carry a much heavier payload and cause significant damage to the target. Anders Puck Nielsen, an officer and military analyst at the Danish Defense Academy, believes that Ukraine is likely stockpiling all of its missiles for a possible retaliatory strike against Russian critical infrastructure (YouTube/@anderspuck, October 5). The exact role can be envisaged for U.S. Tomahawk cruise missiles if a positive decision is made on their transfer to Ukraine. If necessary, these long-range missiles can symmetrically target and destroy energy facilities deep within Russian territory. For example, according to the military expert Denys Popovich, they can attack the production of Shahed/Geran drones in the city of Elabuga, Tatarstan, to prevent massive attacks against Ukraine (Radio NV, August 19). Lieutenant General (Ret.) Ben Hodges, the former Commanding General of U.S. Army Europe, supported the idea of striking the drone production, writing that “killing the archer is always more effective than trying to intercept all the arrows” (X/@general_ben, October 6).

Additionally, during his evening address on October 8, Zelenskyy shared details of his working meeting with General Vasyl Maliuk, the Head of the Security Service of Ukraine. He emphasized that he approved some plans for Ukraine’s asymmetric responses to Russia’s war. This could mean that, in addition to possible missile strikes, Russia may face other surprises (President of Ukraine, October 8).

As winter approaches, Russia has intensified its campaign of coordinated air strikes on Ukraine’s critical infrastructure. This year, it is targeting primarily energy systems, gas production facilities, and railway networks. By continuously improving its missile and drone systems, Russia has increased the effectiveness of its attacks, resulting in significant damage and leaving some Ukrainian regions in critical condition, without power and water supply. The need to purchase additional natural gas and repair damaged infrastructure also poses serious economic challenges for Kyiv. In response, Ukraine is accelerating the development of interceptor drones—an affordable and effective solution to counter large-scale UAV attacks. Additionally, the potential deployment of long-range weapons, including domestically produced systems, such as the Flamingo and, potentially, U.S.-supplied Tomahawk cruise missiles, could play a key role in strengthening Ukraine’s deterrence and retaliation capabilities.