Executive Summary: The Azawad Liberation Front (FLA), a Tuareg separatist group formed in December 2024, has intensified attacks on the Malian Armed Forces (FAMa) and their Russian Africa Corps allies. As the FAMa and Africa Corps struggle to contain the insurgency, the FLA may position... MORE

Executive Summary: In the first half of 2025, Islamic State’s five African provinces conducted 565 attacks across nine countries, with a sharp rise tied to the launch of its “Burning Camps” campaign targeting military bases and camps at night. Islamic State (IS) also appears to... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia’s Wagner Group is being withdrawn from Mali after a three-and-a-half-year deployment with a mixed record of battlefield successes that have come at enormous civilian cost. Wagner’s replacement with the Russian Defense Ministry’s Africa Corps may signal a change in Kremlin tactics. Regardless... MORE

Executive Summary: ISWAP has launched an unprecedented wave of raids on Nigerian military supercamps, signaling a shift in momentum and a potential end to the long-standing stalemate in northeastern Nigeria. The group’s recent successes—especially the May 4 Buni Gari raid—highlight its growing operational capacity and... MORE

Executive Summary: Ongoing pressure by Nigerian security services and Sunni militants may be pushing the country’s small Shia population toward Iran. Nigeria’s Shia, who comprise some 1.3 percent of the total population, are likely to be influenced by Iran through members of the Lebanese diaspora... MORE

Executive Summary: Investigations of Hezbollah’s financing network over the last several years have identified three major funders of the terror group: Mohammad Bazzi, Talal Chahine, and Nazem Ahmad. The arrest of the former two and the destruction of the third’s network is expected to significantly... MORE

Executive Summary: In late July, the Group for Supporters of Islam and Muslims (JNIM) claimed responsibility for an attack in Benin outside of its traditional areas of operation. JNIM propaganda from this and another operation in the weeks that followed showed the capture of weapons... MORE

Executive Summary: The loss of a large number of Wagner/Africa Corps fighters in northern Mali on July 28 and the Ukrainian offensive into Russia’s Kursk oblast that occurred a week later appears to have given the paramilitary group an excuse to return to Russia. The... MORE

Executive summary: Ukraine is alleged to be providing military equipment and training to the Tuareg separatist coalition CSP-DPA in its armed struggle against Russian-backed Malian government forces. This support is framed as a strategic move by Ukraine to counter Russian influence in Africa, particularly targeting... MORE

Executive Summary: Weapons manufactured in the People’s Republic of China (PRC) are increasingly falling into the hands of militant groups across Africa, with key contributors being state-owned defense contractors like Norinco. However, it is unclear how the weapons reach these groups. Militant groups such as... MORE