Executive Summary: Belarus’s presidential election on January 26 will likely hold no democratic legitimacy, with predetermined results ensuring Alyaksandr Lukashenka’s continued rule. Public disillusionment persists amid regime-led propaganda and repression, highlighting the ongoing struggle for democratic reform in Belarus.  Growing economic and political integration is... MORE

Executive Summary: The upcoming Belarusian presidential election on January 26, 2025 will occur facing the aftershocks of the contested 2020 election, which disrupted domestic liberalization trends and triggered a geopolitical shift toward closer Belarusian-Russian integration. The election has garnered little international attention, with Western governments... MORE

Executive Summary: A joint meeting of the Foreign Ministry Collegiums of Russia and Belarus occurred on November 22, emphasizing deepening Belarus-Russia cooperation under the Union State framework, with new agreements on joint security and coordinated foreign policy. Russia extended its nuclear doctrine to cover Belarus,... MORE

(Part One) Executive Summary: The Kremlin formally approved a new nuclear doctrine on November 19, following the West’s authorization for Ukraine to utilize its deep strike capabilities on Russian territory. The revised document is directed at Western powers and aims to address the potential escalation... MORE

(Part One) Executive Summary: The Ministries of Defense of Belarus and Russia approved the Zapad-2025 Joint Strategic Exercise (JSE), scheduled for 2025, which will focus on both conventional and nuclear components. Preparations for the Zapad-2025 JSE are designed to create a cover for the concentration... MORE

Executive Summary: Minsk is determined to secure a place at any future negotiation table for peace in Ukraine and sees diplomatic opportunities through its role in the peace process. Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka and other officials stress that Belarus, as a neighboring and affected state,... MORE

Executive Summary: Since Ukraine’s incursion into Russia’s Kursk oblast on August 12, the Kremlin has continued to delay its response, while Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka has threatened further escalation if Ukraine does not halt its advances. Rumors indicate that Russia and Belarus may conduct joint... MORE

Executive Summary: Belarus seeks closer ties with BRICS and aims to become a full member, seeing the organization as a means to support a multipolar world and reduce its dependency on Moscow. While BRICS is not currently expanding its membership, it has introduced a new... MORE

Executive Summary: The BRICS summit, held in Kazan, was met with great fanfare in Russian propaganda. Propagandists hailed it for its “epochal” significance. Moscow commentators promoted the idea that the BRICS summit demonstrated that Russia is not and cannot be isolated in the international arena.... MORE

Executive Summary: Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka attended the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) summit in Moscow, highlighting the continued significance of the organization for Belarusian foreign policy. For Minsk, the CIS is  increasingly attractive, as the logistical semi-blockade on Belarus’s western border has prevented it... MORE