Executive Summary: The Kremlin miscalculated the United States’s readiness to support Israel’s air campaign and underestimated the speed of the ceasefire with Iran, underscoring Russia’s diminishing leverage in Middle Eastern conflicts. Russia cannot offer Iran tangible aid despite vocal support, pushing Tehran away from Russia... MORE

Executive Summary: Beijing interprets recent U.S. strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities as a demonstration of deterrence aimed at supporters of Iran’s Islamic regime. In response, state media showcased the Yunjian-1000 bunker-busting missile, implying that the People’s Liberation Army has superior capabilities than those of the... MORE

Executive Summary: Kremlin officials are condemning the U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities as violations of international law while simultaneously committing violations of Ukrainian sovereignty. Moscow presents itself as a defender of sovereignty and global nuclear norms in its discourse toward Iran, yet it disregards... MORE

Executive Summary: The March 2025 anti-Hamas protests in Gaza reflected a moment enabled by Hamas’s temporary inability to suppress opposition due to wartime losses. The degradation of its Qassam Brigades, many of whom also serve in internal policing roles, weakened the group’s control over the... MORE

Executive Summary: Foreign-led jihadist groups Malhama Tactical and Albanian Tactical are now training Syria’s newly formed army and special forces under the post-Assad government. These groups, once aligned with Hay’at Taḥrīr al-Shām (HTS) and steeped in jihadist ideology, have retained autonomy and influence through their... MORE

Executive Summary: Israel’s unexpected missile offensive on Iran on June 13 caught Moscow off guard, disrupting its assumptions about U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations and raising suspicions of a concealed Western strategy to undercut Tehran’s military and nuclear ambitions. Moscow condemned Israel’s actions rhetorically but failed to... MORE

Executive Summary: Georgia is increasingly turning toward the People’s Republic of China (PRC), Iran, and the United Arab Emirates, marking a sharp shift away from its traditional Western allies. Economic ties with these countries have intensified, bringing increased investment, business activity, tourism, and even cultural... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia has offered to mediate U.S.–Iran nuclear negotiations, positioning itself as a helpful intermediary with clear interests in securing benefits from any potential agreement. Moscow’s involvement in Iran’s nuclear talks would enhance its influence in the nuclear weapons supply chain through proposals to... MORE

Executive Summary: Israel announced on March 6 that it is in discussions with the United States to establish trilateral cooperation with Azerbaijan, deepening long-standing ties between Israel and Azerbaijan in security, energy, and diplomacy. This trilateral initiative positions Azerbaijan as a bridge between the Middle... MORE

Executive Summary: Ongoing pressure by Nigerian security services and Sunni militants may be pushing the country’s small Shia population toward Iran. Nigeria’s Shia, who comprise some 1.3 percent of the total population, are likely to be influenced by Iran through members of the Lebanese diaspora... MORE