Poland to Build Fortifications on Eastern Border by 2028

Executive Summary:

• Poland announced plans to build fortifications on its border with Russia’s Kaliningrad oblast and Belarus, with construction of the “Eastern Shield” defensive line to be completed by 2028.
• Poland is the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s (NATO) top military spender by percent of its GDP and is one of the leaders among the states of NATO’s eastern flank, who are preparing for a potential escalation of Russia’s war beyond Ukraine’s borders.
• Poland’s determination to safeguard its sovereign territory against Russia will hopefully both hearten Ukraine’s resistance and reinforce to other European partners the importance of continuing to support Ukraine against Russia.

Since the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) has persistently attempted to assist Ukraine with shipments of armaments to resist Russia’s assault. Several NATO frontline nations have also been diligent in fortifying their own common frontiers, especially Norway and recently admitted Finland, who have considered fencing up their borders with Russia (Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, July 7, 2022; NRK.no, September 28). Similarly, Poland has plans to begin building fortifications on its eastern border this year. On October 8, a Polish Deputy National Defense Minister, Cezary Tomczyk, told reporters that the first tests of the “Eastern Shield” (“Tarcza Wschodnia”) would be scheduled to begin within three weeks, with construction of the defensive line set to be completed by 2028 (Portalsamorzadowy.pl, October 8). As Russia’s invasion of Ukraine continues, the risk of the war spilling over into NATO territory has remained a consistent but non-negligeable possibility, and the Baltic countries, Poland, and Romania have remained on high alert.

On May 19, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, at the celebration of the 80th anniversary of the Battle of Monte Cassino in Krakow, announced a new defense and deterrence military plan under the code name “Eastern Shield.” Tusk told his audience, “We have decided to invest ten billion zlotys [$2.55 billion] in our security, above all in the safety of our eastern border” (Platforma Obywatelska, May 19). Over the next four years, Eastern Shield will cover Poland’s northeastern 124-mile (200-kilometer) frontier with the Russian Federation’s Kaliningrad exclave on the Baltic Sea and its 248.5-mile (400-kilometer) border with Belarus (RIA Novosti, June 7).

Polish-Russian relations have been troubled for centuries. Key events include the Polish capture of Moscow in 1610 after the death of Tsar Ivan IV (“the Terrible”) during the “time of troubles”—before Polish forces were driven out by a Russian militia—through to Poland’s complete loss of independence after the Third Partition by Prussia, the Russian Empire, and Austria in 1795. Poland only regained its independence after World War I, followed immediately by the 1918–1919 Russo-Polish War, when Bolshevik Russia tried to spread the Revolution to Warsaw. Adolf Hitler and Joseph Stalin agreed to divide up Poland once again as a part of the August 1939 Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact, with the two countries invading and occupying Poland before the end of the year. Poland was subsequently subjugated by the Soviet Union almost as soon as it was liberated from Nazi rule. The country only regained its independence when communism collapsed in Eastern Europe in 1989, followed by the breakup of the Soviet Union two years later. It is hardly surprising that in the aftermath of Russia’s 2022 unprovoked attack on Ukraine, Poland should be again concerned about its eastern frontier.

The head of Poland’s Ministry of National Defense, Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz, has stated that Eastern Shield would be one of Poland’s largest investments since the end of World War II. He added that it would be a joint project between Poland and the three Baltic states, commenting, “The national deterrence and defense program Eastern Shield is the largest operation to strengthen NATO’s eastern flank. I am counting on the cooperation of all political forces and communities, as well as cooperation with the regional and local government communities.” Reflecting on lessons learned from Russia’s war in Ukraine, Kosiniak-Kamysz also discussed establishing new units in its armed forces to conduct drone operations (NaTemat.pl, May 27). Cost, however, remains a significant concern. Tomczyk has noted that Eastern Shield is shaping into a “de facto European project,” announcing talks with the European Investment Bank (EIB), among others, on the possible financing of the project (TVN24 Polska, July 10).

The Eastern Shield project consists of four elements. According to General Wiesław Kukuła, Chief of the General Staff of the Polish Armed Forces, it first includes a multi-layered detection, warning, and tracking system involving various platforms such as drones, F35 fighters, and satellites. The second component hopes to counter the enemy’s mobile formations with anti-tank ditches, reinforced concrete anti-tank “hedgehogs,” and readapted natural terrain. Third, Eastern Shield will improve military security and civil defense with secure camouflaged positions for soldiers and civilians. This would involve the construction of hideouts and bunkers for offensive operations and the building of munitions warehouses. Fourth, the project will ensure the mobility of defending troops by reinforcing roads, fortifying bridges, improving access roads, and bolstering certain structures so that they can handle  heavier loads (Wyborcza.pl Gazeta, May 24).

Poland’s increased defense commitments are part of a larger trend within NATO, whose Eastern European members account for five of the alliance’s seven top defense spenders in 2024. At a press conference on October 4, Kosiniak-Kamysz noted that Poland is now the alliance’s top military spender by proportion, with its defense expenditures accounting for around 4.2 percent of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP). This figure is expected to rise to 4.7 percent over the next two years (Milmag.pl, October 5).

Poland’s determination to safeguard its sovereign territory against its troublesome eastern neighbor will hopefully both hearten Ukraine’s resistance and persuade wavering alliance members such as Hungary against rewarding Russian aggression by pressuring Ukraine to cede territory. While Poland’s commitment to Eastern Shield remains resolute, whether it will prove to be a stout deterrent or a 21st-century Maginot Line may prove to be a question that only the Kremlin can answer.