Long-range Capabilities Continue to be Key Deterrent for Ukraine

Executive Summary:

• Ukraine has significantly increased the frequency, range, and scale of its long-range strikes deep into Russian territory, targeting critical military and economic infrastructure. This has led to disruptions in Russian operations and forced Moscow to implement costly countermeasures.
• Ukraine is advancing its own long-range weaponry, including modified drones, which aims to reduce reliance on foreign arms and provide Ukraine with greater autonomy in targeting Russian positions, even if restrictions are placed on international weapon supplies.
• The development of Ukrainian-made long-range missiles has economic and strategic benefits, stimulating the defense sector and creating high-tech production jobs. These weapons could serve as a future deterrent against renewed aggression, aligning with Ukraine’s long-term security strategy.

In the early morning hours of November 6, drones attacked a Russian naval base near Kaspiisk City, Republic of Dagestan, Russia. Later, it was reported that it was an operation carried out by Ukrainian Defense Intelligence and that Ukrainian-made Aeroprakt A-22 Foxbat drones were used. The distance from the state border of Ukraine to the site of the attack was more than 1,500 kilometers (930 miles). As reported, two Gepard-class frigates (project 11661) and a Buyan-class corvette (project 21631) could be damaged due to the attack (NV, November 6). This attack was yet another episode in a series of regular long-range strikes by the Ukrainian Defense Forces against targets deep in Russian territory. These deep strikes went from an extremely rare event at the beginning of the full-scale invasion to a routine in 2024. Moreover, the frequency, scale, and range of attacks constantly increase. According to official information for 2022–2023, the Armed Forces of Ukraine conducted 17 long-range strikes in 2022–2023. In contrast, in January–September 2024, they conducted more than 30 long-range strikes (Texty, October 22). Ukraine’s capability to carry out long-range strikes on Russian targets provides an opportunity to weaken the Russian armed forces at their source, enabling a more proactive and assertive defense of its sovereignty.

Understanding the limitations of its resources, the Ukrainian commanders prefer to strike targets that will have the largest strategic effect (see EDM, October 24). To reduce the capabilities of the Russian air force, the Ukrainian Armed Forces decided to hit the nearest Russian air bases and ammunition storage facilities. The longest strike to date was on Olenya air base, which is 1,750 kilometers (1,090 miles) away from the Ukrainian border (see EDM, October 16; VoxUkraine, October 25). This reduced the number of Russian air strikes using cruise missiles and glide bombs. Russian command decided to relocate strategic aviation as far as possible from the border with Ukraine, which has created additional challenges for its use. The strikes on the Engels airbase in the Saratov region had a significant effect, leading to two to five strategic bombers being potentially damaged in 2022 and possibly three more in 2024 (Defence Express,  December 27, 2022; Euromaidan Press, April 6).

This has forced the Russian command to resort to countermeasures ranging from drawing silhouettes of aircraft at airfields, deploying rare medium-range SAM systems such as Pantsir-S1 (SA-22 Greyhound) from the frontline closer to the airfields, and constructing engineering structures to protect against strikes (RBC, February 29; X.com/bradyafr, October 31). This is a challenge for Ukraine, as it needs to take advantage of a certain “window of opportunity” before the Russians have time to develop effective means of defense.

Other vital targets for Ukrainian long-range weapons are Russian oil refineries. These strikes have caused such significant economic and logistical problems for Moscow that the Kremlin allegedly has begun to seek negotiations to end them (Ukrainska Pravda, October 30). The Ukrainian government, however, has denied these talks (RBC Ukraine, October 30).

Ukraine is not limited to drones and there are increasing reports of the use of the Ukrainian-designed R-360 “Neptune” cruise missile, which was urgently converted from an anti-ship missile (see EDM, August 13). Deputy Minister of Defense of Ukraine, Lieutenant General Ivan Havryliuk, said that work is underway to create a so-called “long” Neptune, whose range could be 1,000 kilometers (620 miles) (ArmyInform, December 4, 2023). This development was later discussed during the meeting between the Minister of Strategic Industries of Ukraine, Oleksandr Kamyshin, and members of the Commission on National Defense Strategy of the US Congress (X.com/front_ukrainian, April 15). Oleksiy Petrov, head of the state enterprise Spetstechnoexport, stated that Ukraine will have its own cruise and ballistic missiles by mid-2025. He also added that the tests are ongoing successfully (Obozrevatel, November 2).

Even more interesting was the announcement of the “Palyanytsia”—a hybrid of cruise missile and drone, presented by the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy. According to him, around 20 Russian airfields are in the range of this weapon system, but the specifications of this range are not yet disclosed (T.me/V_Zelenskiy_official, August 25). This hybrid cruise missile has already been used on targets inside temporarily occupied Crimea (Ukrainskaya Pravda, September 2). Later, some Russian sources claimed that they had shot down several “Palyanytsia” drones in Russia’s Kursk oblast (Defence Express, September 20).

There are also reports of the completion of the development of the Ukrainian short-range ballistic missile system “Hrim-2.” Its development started in 2007 by Ukrainian defense company KB Pivdenne and the machine building plant PA Pivdenmash. At that time, according to the requirements, it would have a range of 500 kilometers (310 miles) (The Ukrainian Weekly, April 26, 2019). The continuation of the project was recently confirmed by Yehor Chernev, chairman of Ukraine’s delegation to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). He said the Hrim-2 missile is nearly ready for action (RBC Ukraine, October 22).

The development of Ukraine’s own long-range weapons will have several positive consequences for Ukraine. It is an investment in the national economy and the development of high-tech production. This innovation will also create competitive weapons that are being tested in real combat conditions, which may later be interesting for foreign buyers. The discussion of the possibility of opening arms exports has been repeatedly raised in Ukrainian expert circles (Ekonomichna Pravda, August 12; see EDM, November 8). This is necessary both to support the national economy as a whole and to enable further financing of other defense industry projects (see EDM, October 8).

There may be different partnership models for international buyers. For example, Lithuania plans to invest 10 million euros ($10.56 million) in the production of the “Palianytsia” drone missile following the example of the Danish model by directly financing the Ukrainian manufacturer (see EDM, July 8; MoD Ukraine, October 23). The same co-financing model could be applied to missile weapons production, as the Ukrainian economy is unlikely to be able to afford such costs on its own.

Internal production of long-range missiles will also provide Ukraine the ability to circumvent restrictions on attacking targets deep inside Russian territory. This will be needed in any scenario under the new US President. If a path similar to that of the previous US administration is chosen, domestic missiles will allow Ukraine to circumvent any restrictions imposed for foreign weapons. In the event of any kind of ceasefire or frozen conflict, long-range weapons will be an effective deterrent to renewed aggression, which is included in the Victory Plan proposed by the President of Ukraine (Defence Express, October 16).

Ukraine’s development and access to long-range missiles have become a cornerstone of its strategy to counter Russian military aggression effectively. Long-range strikes have demonstrated Ukraine’s capability to disrupt key Russian military and economic assets far beyond immediate frontlines, impacting air base operations, oil refineries, and logistical networks. This ability to target critical infrastructure forces Russia to reallocate resources, implement costly countermeasures, and adapt its strategies, ultimately reducing its operational capacity. Moreover, the advancement of Ukraine’s domestic missile technology supports not only military objectives but also bolsters economic resilience, high-tech industry growth, and potential for international arms partnerships. As Ukraine continues to face evolving threats, long-range missiles not only enhance its defensive capabilities but also serve as a strategic deterrent, allowing Ukraine to safeguard its sovereignty and stability in the face of ongoing challenges.