Ukraine Bolsters Missile Production to Increase Defense Independence

Executive Summary:

• Ukraine is reviving its Soviet-era missile expertise to develop modern capabilities, reducing reliance on Western technology and circumventing restrictions on imported weapons while boosting defense self-sufficiency.
• The relaxation of Western restrictions, particularly the US decision to allow limited use of long-range missile systems such as ATACMS, marks a pivotal moment in Ukraine’s ability to counter Russian aggression.
• Ukraine’s intensification of missile production and deployment could provoke a broader arms race, underscoring the strategic importance of missiles as tools for deterrence and long-range precision strikes in modern warfare.

On November 17, Russia launched its largest air strike on Ukraine in almost three months, firing around 120 missiles and 90 drones in a massive combined three-hour air strike on Ukraine’s battered energy infrastructure in the onset of what promises to be a cold and dark winter for many Ukrainians (Obozrevatel.com, November 17). The Ukrainian Air Force shot down 144 out of the 210 drones and missiles. According to Ukrainian Energy Minister Herman Halushchenko, Kyiv, Kropyvnytskyi, Rivne, Ivano-Frankivsk, Cherkasy, Dnipro, Vinnytsia, Kryvyi Rih, Odesa, and Zaporizhzhia were attacked, as well as the Khmelnytskyi and Volyn oblasts (The Kyiv Independent, November 17). Since Russia began its full-scale invasion in February 2022, Ukraine’s government has argued that the limitations placed on Western missile technology imports have unfairly restricted their offensive capabilities against their aggressor. An indigenous government initiative may soon alter that dynamic by reviving Ukraine’s ability to create its own ballistic and cruise missiles, which will not be subject to such restrictions (see EDM, October 24, November 8, 13). Oleksiy Petrov, director of state-owned monopoly SpetsTekhnoEkhsport (STE), specializing in the export and import of military and dual-purpose products, reported on November 2, “I think that we will receive our own missiles, cruise and ballistic ones, by mid-2025. I observed the tests, so far only flight tests, but we have seen results” (One.ua, November 3). After the war started, Ukraine stopped exporting weapons, and STE was repurposed to import armaments (Babel, October 7). Ukraine’s renewed focus on indigenous missile production, bolstered by Western policy shifts and financial support, represents a significant evolution in its defense strategy amid escalating Russian aggression.

Ukraine’s missile production capabilities date from the Cold War, as Soviet Ukraine’s heavy industry was integral to the Soviet Union’s post-World War II missile and rocket programs. The contribution of Ukrainian Soviet enterprises to the Soviet Union’s defense was significant. The Iuzhmash and OKB-586 Iuzhnoe industrial complexes in Dnepropetrovsk were founded on the Dnepropetrovsk Automobile Plant (DAZ) industrial base. Established in 1944, they created the Soviet Union’s first-generation missiles capable of carrying a nuclear warhead, the R-12 and R-14. The same enterprises also produced the world’s first intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), the R-16. At the end of the 1980s, shortly before the 1991 collapse of the Soviet Union, Iuzhmash developed the world’s most powerful intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), the RS-36M (SS-18, “Satan,” North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) classification), capable of carrying 10 warheads, with a 6,338–9,942 mile (10,200–16,000 kilometer) range (Fond Strategicheskoi Kul’tury, January 16, 2022).

The dissolution of the Soviet Union resulted in 15 new countries, all struggling to cope with the rampant political and economic dislocation caused by the country’s collapse, which led to rampant corruption. The post-Soviet space subsequently experienced a drastic shrinkage of various military-industrial complexes. The new cash-starved governments were unable to purchase expensive new weapons systems, leading the new governments to sell much of their non-nuclear military inventory abroad at fire-sale prices. 

Weapons production in Ukraine began to revive in earnest after 2014 when Russia invaded and occupied parts of eastern Ukraine as well as Crimea. Ukraine began actively rebuilding its missile manufacturing infrastructure after Russia’s war began. On October 2, Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov told participants at the second International Forum of Defense Industries, “We have recently focused on missile and drone programs. Next year—or by the end of the year—you will hear a lot about the fact that there will be a large missile program.” Umerov had earlier remarked that Ukraine had developed a “quite powerful” missile program. According to the Defense Minister, Ukraine had shared information about its missile programs with its allies, who “have already given us verbal consent that they will finance this, and in the near future, we will receive a final written response from our partners” (Interfax-Ukraina, October 2).

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy expanded on the country’s renewed missile and rocketry efforts in an interview with Ukrainian Radio on November 16, noting, “As for drones, electronic warfare systems, long-range drones, the fight against [Iranian-made] Shaheds, we have not yet achieved outstanding results, but progress has been made.” He elaborated on Ukraine’s missile program and the four types of missiles they are developing and testing, and how Ukraine destroyed most of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet using naval drones. Ukraine has received significant funding from other countries, and Zelenskyy highlighted that Ukraine’s budget for domestic drone orders is 775 billion hryvnias [$18.7 billion] for 2025. He asserted, “We already have this money … plus all the other guaranteed finances from partners” (Suspil’ne novini, November 16). According to Ukraine’s representative to NATO, Egor Chernev, the battlefield deployment of the Grim-2 ballistic missile, developed over the past decade with a 1,100-pound (500 kilograms) warhead and a range of up to 310 miles (500 kilometers), is imminent (ITsider.com.ua, November 3).

On November 17, the same day as the massive Russian missile barrage, US policy shifted, brought about by Russia’s deployment of North Korean troops last month. US President Joe Biden, for the first time, authorized Ukraine’s use of US-supplied long-range missiles. Biden also altered the previous policy to permit the Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS), with a maximum range of about 190 miles, to be used for limited use to strike more deeply inside Russia (Voice of America, November 17). Earlier this year, when Biden authorized ATACMS shipments to Ukraine, he restricted their deployment within Ukraine’s own territory, which would permit them to strike Russian forces in Crimea but not Russia proper (Kyiv Post, November 17, 18). This decision was presumably spurred by the re-election of Donald Trump as US president, which will probably lead to far less support for Ukraine.

At this stage in Russia’s war against Ukraine, the only certainty is that the missile race will continue, as missiles offer capabilities beyond the immediate tactical front. By revitalizing its Cold War-era missile manufacturing capabilities, Ukraine is poised to mitigate reliance on restricted Western technology and enhance its long-range strike capacity. This development not only changes the dynamics of the ongoing conflict but also signals a broader missile race that will likely shape regional and global security considerations in the years to come. Western relaxation of ballistic restrictions combined with growing Ukrainian rocket and missile production to curb Russia’s aggression is a new tactical and strategic consideration that will become increasingly prominent in the future.