Russia Capitalizes on Development of Artificial Intelligence in its Military Strategy

Executive Summary:

• Russia has significantly increased its investment in artificial intelligence (AI), allocating a substantial portion of its state budget toward AI-driven military research. This funding aims to enhance Russia’s technological edge in modern warfare, particularly in AI-enabled military applications.
• Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine marked the first major conflict with widespread AI use. Ukraine, supported by U.S. AI firms, successfully countered Russian forces, prompting Russia to accelerate AI integration in command systems, drones, and air defense networks.
• Russia’s focus and rapid development of AI has given it an advantage against Western weaponry regardless of the outcome of its invasion of Ukraine.
• Russia’s AI development traces back to early Soviet  experiments in the 1960s. It was not after its illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014, however, that Russia’s military AI development accelerated.

On February 12, the leading European defense technology company, Helsing, based in Germany, announced that 6,000 HX-2 strike drones will be delivered to Ukraine (Helsing.ai, February 12). The drones are powered by onboard artificial intelligence (AI), rendering HX-2 immune to electronic warfare (EW) measures with its ability to search for, re-identify, and engage targets without a signal or a continuous data connection. The delivery of these drones follows a previous order of 4,000 HF-1 strike drones which are currently being delivered to Ukraine. Prior to this, Dmitry Chernyshenko, the Deputy Prime Minister of Russia, announced massive investment of 5 percent of the state budget allocated to funding scientific research in AI and of 15 percent to other areas of research with the use of AI tools (Tsargrad.tv, January 31). One of the main purposes of this funding is to use AI technologies to solve applied military problems (Government of Russia, January 31). With technology taking a central role in Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, some Russian and foreign military experts referred to the growing use of AI as an upcoming “revolution in military affairs,” where Russia could become one of the world’s leading powers given its hands-on experience in its invasion of Ukraine (Discred.ru, January 14, 2024; Kommersant.ru, September 15, 2021; Focus.ua, May 26, 2023; Army.ric.mil.ru, January 10, 2022).  

 Russia’s AI From Soviet Times to 2021

The roots of Russia’s AI technology date back to the 1960s and should be attributed to the emergence of the Zelenograd-based “science city” (Наукоград, naukograd). The “science city” project, which, among other things, developed proto-AI technologies, was supported by Alexei Kosygin, the Premier of the Soviet Union, and Alexander Shokin, the Minister of the Electronics Industry, and other notable figures from the Soviet Defence Industrial Complex (Ras.ru, August 9, 2018). In 1962, such works were initiated under the umbrella of the Science-Research Institute of Physics Problems (Научно-исследователский институт физических проблем, Nauchno-issledovatelskii institute fizicheskikh problem), where experts from various realms of knowledge, including physics, information technology (IT), mathematics, biology, and neurosurgery, experimented on projects related to artificial neural networks. At that time, the experiments’ main focus was on increasing the capabilities of the Soviet anti-missile/aircraft (PVO-PRO) system. Later, it was claimed that much of the Soviet scientific achievements in the realm of AI were then used by the People’s Republic of China (PRC) in the development of these technologies (Ras.ru, August 9, 2018; Wang, Jieshu. “The early history of artificial intelligence in China (1950s–1980s).” In Annual Meeting of the Society for the History of Technology (SHOT), St. Louis, MO. 2018).

Despite the Soviet leadership’s neglect of the emerging industry, certain types of Soviet weapons systems were equipped with fully automated proto-AI systems. For example, in 1983 the Soviet Union issued Resolution 686-214, by which the navy received the first batch of the P-700 Granit naval anti-ship cruise missiles available both in surface-to-surface and submarine-launched variants and capable of targeting both sea- and ground-based targets (RIA Novosti, August 15, 2023; NPO Mashinostroeniya, accessed March 2 via Web Archive). Following the Soviet Union’s collapse in 1991 and a subsequent decrease in military spending, research on AI for military purposes was halted (Ras.ru, August 9, 2018). The first signs of an AI comeback as critical for Russia’s military modernization appeared after the worsening of Russo-Western relations in 2014 caused by Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea and the Russia-sponsored conflict in the Ukrainian Donbas oblast. In 2017, Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that “AI is not only Russia’s future but where the future of the whole humankind lies … Those who will secure leadership in this domain, will become the global master ” (Topwar.ru, April 6, 2021). Two years later, another milestone for Russian AI was marked with the “National Strategy on the Development of Artificial Intelligence until 2030” (Kremlin.ru, October 10, 2019). The strategy was adopted by a Presidential decree to form the foundation of state programs for AI development which would enable “Russian artificial intelligence technologies to occupy a significant share of the global market” (Kremlin.ru, October 10, 2019).

An article in 2021 published in a specialized Russian defense and military-oriented magazine “Military Thoughts”  (Военная Мысль, Voyennaya Mysl) provided seven methods and areas of AI use by the Russian armed forces (Cyberleninka.ru, accessed February 22). These included fire-control systems to locate and track flying objects; air and missile defense systems (PVO-PRO) to locate and destroy flying objects; Multi-Domain Command and Control to collect, process, and systematize large amounts of information and data; robotics and weaponry able to be used on the battlefield and at a distance; and electronic warfare, training simulators, and intellectual weapons systems that can independently track and change targets.

Prior to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the use of AI was only episodically showcased despite Russia’s military-political leadership acknowledging its importance. Major changes started to occur only after February 2022 as Russian forces encountered problems in Ukraine when they faced certain types of Western weaponry and equipment.

Russia’s Full-Scale Invasion of Ukraine and AI Military Applications

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine became the first major armed conflict to include the active use of AI, which in turn caused problems for the Russian armed forces. As reported by Russian sources, due to the assistance provided by the United States to the Ukrainian army, particularly the use of AI technologies from U.S. companies Maven and Palantir, the Ukrainian side managed to collect, decode, and translate (into Ukrainian and English) information transmissions by the Russian army. Reportedly, this assistance was primarily used by Ukraine to conduct strikes against Russian targets, allowing the United States to “test their military AI capabilities” in real-time warfare with the Russians (Vzglyad, January 8). The Russian forces’ inability to counter Western technologies encouraged Russia to invest more effort in strengthening and developing its own AI capabilities.

For instance, AI became the dominant theme of the “Army-2023” forum conducted under the auspices of the Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD). Major General Alexander Osadchuk, who serves as the Head of the Innovation Development of the MoD, claimed,  

The dominating topic of the scientific-business program of the forum in 2023 became such issues as AI and diversification of the defense-industrial complex, the most up-to-date command and control systems, reconnaissance, precision weapons, and robotics. Particular attention is paid to the issue of drones [and the use of AI] … In effect, what we are talking about is the emergence of a new separate capital- and technology-intensive industry. A large part of such projects and solutions … are being successfully integrated with operations of our armed forces participating in the special military operation (RIA Novosti, August 15, 2023).

These comments, in light of the negative experience of facing Western AI technologies on the battlefield, are reflected in the Russian MoD’s consolidation of efforts to attempt to catch up with its Western competitors. One such step was announced in August 2022, when under the umbrella of the MoD, a special department was created whose activities are specifically concerned with the “development of capabilities in AI in the production of weaponry” (TASS, August 17, 2022). By August 2023, the MoD announced that active works on more than 500 types of various AI-related projects were underway with 222 of them to be finalized and put into operation by the end of that year (Zvezdaweekly.ru, September 23, 2022; RIA NovostiRia.ru, August 15, 2023). Furthermore, Russia has finalized the delegation of responsibilities for companies by tasking the Military Technopolis “Era,” JSC Ruselectronics, and The PJSC United Aircraft Corporation with AI development for military needs (Cnews.ru, July 11, 2019; Zvezdaweekly.ru, April 19, 2021; Vz.ru, January 19, 2024).  

In 2023, Russian military experts analyzed the main tasks that should be facilitated and optimized with the use of AI to increase the effectiveness of Russian armed forces on the battlefield, including in command and control, developing pre-emptive capabilities and graphical military document of the battlefield, modeling military operations, forecasting, administrative planning, and monitoring the battlefield (Cyberleninka.ru, accessed February 20). The use of AI will play a key role, resulting in a drastic optimization and improving the effectiveness of the Control and Command system on the battlefield and during the preparatory stage. The course of Russia’s war against Ukraine has further showcased the strategic importance of AI as an indispensable element of warfare. According to Russian sources, the Russian Armed Forces continued using AI in such PVO-PRO systems as Pantsir S-1, S-300, S-400, and, quite importantly, the S-350 Vityaz medium-range surface-to-air missile systems that were first introduced in 2019 and then employed during the war. While this information comes primarily from Russian sources, thus including natural bias and the lack of objectivity, this strategy has proven its effectiveness against U.S.-supplied ATACMS and France/U.K.-supplied Storm Shadow/SCALP-EG missiles (Topwar.ru, July 4, 2024). The Russian side has also extended its focus on developing AI technologies in drones. For instance, according to Russian military expert and the director of the Museum of the PVO-PRO, Yuri Knutov, Russia has now started integrating AI in its ZALA Lancet, an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) and loitering munition, which was first demonstrated in 2019. Knutov stated that the new technology allows Russia to launch a “swarm of Lancet drones from several independent launching platforms. Following launch, drones are able to exchange information and divide their tasks” (MK.ru, January 3, 2024).

Assessing these preliminary results of Russia’s military prioritization of AI demonstrates that the Russian state appears to be investing considerable effort into the “normalization” of using AI for military purposes. A recent study that analyzed the Russian media and its portrayal of AI estimated that 83 percent of texts published in Russian media referring to AI have a positive connotation while only 17 percent are negative (RUND University, 2024). It also noted that there is a “visible trend toward the justification of AI use” for military purposes, given the “unfolding arms race […] and the need to prevent threats posed by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization [NATO].” The main findings reveal that  “[b]y and large one could talk about the normalization of AI military use in public opinion [in Russia]” (RUND University, 2024).

Conclusion

The use of AI in Russia had a late start with Russian companies falling short of North American or Chinese corporations working in the sector. This image, however, may be deceptive. Following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Moscow’s emphasis on the development of AI, both for military and civilian purposes, has become more prominent. The most recent data suggest that Russia is now among the top 10 countries in the world in terms of AI integration throughout various spheres of public life and the economy (Lenta.ru, March 13, 2024). 

This said, however, Russian military experts, including senior fellow at the Academy of Military Science Vladimir Prikhvatilov, stated that “for now we have virtually no chances to catch up with the Chinese or the Americans [in the use of AI] since our technological capabilities are inferior” (Lenta.ru, January 16, 2024). Three factors could potentially narrow this gap. Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has afforded Russia an unparalleled amount of information about the use of AI in real-time conditions of actual military confrontation. 

Secondly, as an authoritarian regime, Russia can more easily mobilize internal resources to achieve specific goals, granting the Kremlin a quicker pace in development when choosing to allocate resources toward AI. Lastly, Russia is collaborating with other autocratic states, such as Venezuela, in the domain of AI, which provides new opportunities for mutual technological progress. Given the strengthening of the military and security cooperation between Russia and Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK), it is possible that the two states may collaborate on AI as well. Even though cooperation between Russia, DPRK, and Venezuela in such an innovative domain as AI is not inherently menacing, the situation today with the development of the internet and cyber espionage reaching new levels, could present new threats to other countries. Even more concerning is that the PRC, where the level of AI development has reached impressive heights, seems to be on the path to strengthening AI cooperation with Russia. Recently, Moscow and Beijing signed an agreement to develop a joint collaborative effort in the domain of AI (President of Russia, May 16, 2024). 

While the scope of the agreement and concrete steps were not articulated, it is clear that with the intensification of the Sino-American rivalry, the PRC may consider using Russia and its valuable experience in the domain of AI for its own goals. Ultimately, Russia’s growing emphasis on AI for military applications underscores its determination to close the technological gap with international competitors, particularly the United States. Whether or not Russia can fully catch up with global AI development, the fact remains that its increasing AI capabilities, bolstered by real-time battlefield experience and strategic alliances, could reshape military dynamics and conflict situations in the years to come.