Executive Summary: Ongoing pressure by Nigerian security services and Sunni militants may be pushing the country’s small Shia population toward Iran. Nigeria’s Shia, who comprise some 1.3 percent of the total population, are likely to be influenced by Iran through members of the Lebanese diaspora... MORE

Executive Summary: Pakistan banned the Iran-backed Zainebiyoun Brigade on April 11, 2024, designating them as a terrorist group. The move is believed to be an effort to crack down on Iranian recruitment of disaffected Pakistani Shia, who are being used to fight in Iran’s proxy... MORE

Executive Summary: Islamic State (IS) militants conducted a well-planned strike in Oman on a Shi’ite mosque on July 15, 2024. While early reports focused on the attack’s potential goal of inciting sectarian violence, it is more likely to have been meant as a warning to... MORE

Executive Summary: Former jihadist Ahmed al-Sharaa and a coalition of militant groups led by his Committee for the Liberation of the Levant (HTS) successfully overthrew the brutal al-Assad regime in Syria on December 8, 2024, leaving the fate of the country uncertain. While al-Sharaa has... MORE