COUP OR BLUFF?

On September 22, the press service of the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) claimed, somewhat sensationally, that the SBU had foiled a conspiracy coup by communist-oriented radicals. The special services said that the conspirators, operating from three Ukrainian regions, were preparing terrorist actions both in Chernobyl and at the sites of the country’s main water reservoirs and pipelines. The SBU also claimed to have confiscated detailed maps of a planned march on Kyiv and topographical plans of military facilities. The claim appears to be only a poorly organized negative PR action. So far there have been no firm indications, and certainly no evidence, that a conspiracy in fact exists. Many analysts seem to think that the claims might be either part of an SBU plan to destroy the Communists, or attributable to the personal ambitions of SBU chief Leonid Derkach.

Initially, the SBU said that Ukraine’s leaders had been informed about the conspiracy. President Leonid Kuchma denied this on September 23, however, saying that he knew no more about the affair than the general public. On the same day, Ukrainian television reports suggested that the alarm was not serious: One elderly man, who was seized by the SBU and then released, said that the maps confiscated were in fact schemes of mushroom beds in local woods. The suspects turned out to be military retirees, mostly members of the All-Ukrainian Union of Soviet Officers and of the Communist Party. The news about the foiled conspiracy was met with skepticism by the country’s leading politicians. Presidential spokesman Oleksandr Martynenko spoke publicly for Kuchma on September 27, saying that there was in fact no threat of a coup, and that the SBU had erred in reporting so, thus igniting a controversial reaction. At the same time, Kuchma praised the SBU “for fulfilling its functions on protection of the state.” Derkach continued to insist that the leftist group wanted “to overthrow the constitutional order in Ukraine” in his report to a skeptical parliament on October 6.

The incident had minor international repercussions, which Ukraine scarcely welcomes, given that it is now in the midst of difficult negotiations with Russia over gas supplies. A criminal case was brought against a Russian Communist Party member, who, according to the SBU, had been involved in the coup preparation. It is also generally believed that ultranationalist Vladimir Zhirinovsky, deputy speaker of the Russian Duma, paid a visit to the Ukrainian parliament on October 5 to discuss the possible involvement of Russian citizens in the affair.

Several Ukrainian and Russian media suggested that the SBU’s real goal had been to compromise Ukrainian communists as a way of weakening that parliamentary faction, preparing the grounds for adopting the presidential constitutional amendments (approved by referendum on April 16). This seems logical: 300 ballots are needed to pass the amendments, but the pro-presidential majority now numbers less than that. Compromising information about the Communists could theoretically prompt some of those deputies to join the pro-presidential forces, thus reducing the numerically strongest Communist faction. Symonenko and the All-Ukrainian Union of Soviet Officers vehemently denied any relation to the foiled coup attempt. Ukrainian Communists are currently so weak that they are generally expected to think rather about mere survival, than about staging coups. The alleged involvement of the Soviet officers, a small organization of pensioners, looks even less probable.

The incident can also attributed to Derkach and his personal ambitions. Believed to be Kuchma’s favorite, Derkach has been for some time regarded as a major candidate for the prime minister’s post. But when Premier Valery Pustovoytenko was voted out of office late last year, Kuchma appointed the liberal economist Viktor Yushchenko–not Derkach–as the new prime minister, arguably under Western pressure. There is ample speculation that Yushchenko, continuously attacked by Ukrainian energy tycoons, may soon resign, so Derkach may well think that his time may have come. The recent sensation is not the first one of its type this year: On September 12, Derkach claimed that the SBU disrupted a planned attempt on the life of Russian President Vladimir Putin in Yalta. Derkach may expect his zeal to be rewarded by promotion (Studio 1+1 TV, September 22-23; New Channel TV, September 12, 23, 28, October 4; UNIAN, September 22-23, 27; Kievskie vedomosti, September 26; Den, Ukrainska pravda, October 7).

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The Monitor is a publication of the Jamestown Foundation. It is researched and written under the direction of senior analysts Jonas Bernstein, Vladimir Socor, Stephen Foye, and analysts Ilya Malyakin, Oleg Varfolomeyev and Ilias Bogatyrev. If you have any questions regarding the content of the Monitor, please contact the foundation. If you would like information on subscribing to the Monitor, or have any comments, suggestions or questions, please contact us by e-mail at pubs@jamestown.org, by fax at 301-562-8021, or by postal mail at The Jamestown Foundation, 4516 43rd Street NW, Washington DC 20016. Unauthorized reproduction or redistribution of the Monitor is strictly prohibited by law. Copyright (c) 1983-2002 The Jamestown Foundation Site Maintenance by Johnny Flash Productions