Watch the Video: The Crisis in Karabakh and Iran’s Rise in the South Caucasus

On January 28, a drone strike was launched on targets within Iran, further raising tensions. The strike was assumed to be the work of Israel, with which Azerbaijan maintains closer ties than any other Muslim country. The relationship between Iran and Azerbaijan has worsened since the outbreak of the Second Karabakh War in 2020, with intermittent clashes between Armenia and Azerbaijan intensifying throughout 2021 and 2022. Past conflicts and the current diplomatic crisis have resulted in deepening ties between Azerbaijan and Israel, with Baku having sent an ambassador to Tel Aviv for the very first time just weeks before the attack. Azerbaijan also appears to be drawing closer to the West more broadly. On the other side, Armenia has the support of Iran—which continues to suffer major anti-regime protests—and an increasingly weak Russia.

Jamestown was pleased to have hosted several leading experts who examined the crisis, the rising instability in the South Caucasus and the outlook for the region in 2023 and beyond.