Executive Summary: Based in Oxford since receiving asylum in 2002, Wenda remains the most visible leader of the United Liberation Movement for West Papua (ULMWP), though the movement itself faces deep internal divisions. Indonesia has sought to tie Wenda to violence and placed him on... MORE

Executive Summary: Puntland security forces captured Abdiweli Mohamed Yusuf, the Islamic State–Somalia (IS–Somalia) finance chief, on July 25. While IS–Somalia remains a small force, the removal of key leaders such as Yusuf signals mounting pressure on IS’s financial and operational capacity, potentially weakening the group’s... MORE

Executive Summary: Asif Adnan, son of a High Court judge and former musician, became radicalized after the 2013 Shapla Square movement and was arrested in 2014 for ties to Ansarullah Bangla Team and al-Qaeda networks, though quickly released on bail. Since then, he has reinvented... MORE

Executive Summary: Abdullah Öcalan, leader of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), has urged his organization to disarm and pursue a negotiated settlement with Türkiye. His role and personal status remain central sticking points. The “terror-free initiative,” promoted by Devlet Bahçeli and President Erdoğan—both longtime PKK... MORE

Executive Summary: The arrest of Mali’s General Abass Dembélé appears to be part of a purge of the nation’s civil and military leadership by General Assimi Goïta, who took power in a 2021 coup d’état. Dembélé has been an unusually competent commander and a key... MORE

Executive Summary: Ayaba Cho Lucas, head of the Ambazonia Governing Council (AGovC), has led Cameroon’s nine-year anglophone separatist insurgency from exile in Europe. Advocating “eye for an eye” violence, Ayaba helped form the Ambazonian Defense Force (ADF), which, though lightly armed, has carried out kidnappings,... MORE