February 2013 Newsletter

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February 2013
NEWS FROM JAMESTOWN
The Jamestown Foundation Leadership: Glen E. Howard, President
At a Glance

3rd Annual China Defense & Security Conference

Upcoming Event: Georgia Politcal Power Transfer

Forthcoming Report: Chinese ASBM Development

Featured Articles

Media Appearances

Support Jamestown

 
Jamestown Staff & Fellows
President
Editor, China Brief
Program Associate
Program Associate/Events Coordinator
Managing Editor of Global Terrorism Analysis
 
Director of Programs for the Balkans, Caucasus & Central Asia
Senior Fellow – China Program
Senior Fellow – Eurasia Program
Senior Fellow
Senior Fellow – Eurasia Program
Senior Fellow
Featured Articles
Jamestown’s 3rd Annual China Defense and Security Conference

Tomorrow, The Jamestown Foundation is holding the 3rd Annual China Defense and Security Conference from 8:45 AM to 4:15 PM at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington, DC. The conference features a number of military and regional experts such as Admiral Timothy Keating, Willy Lam, Michael S. Chase, Kevin McCauley, Murray Scott Tanner, Dean Cheng and Dennis Blasko. 
 
Following introductory remarks by Jamestown’s President Glen Howard, Admiral Timothy Keating (Ret.) will open the conference with a discussion of “A Military Officer’s Perspective on the China Challenge.” Following the opening keynote, the first panel of seasoned analysts will discuss “China in Transition” from both domestic and international perspectives. The second panel of military experts will discuss trends in military modernization such as the PLA’s evolution toward systems of systems operations and the growing realism of PLA Air Force training. After a brief luncheon, the third panel of regional experts will discuss China’s internal security apparatus from the police to the PLA. The fourth panel will analyze “Civil-Military Support to China’s Security,”

examining how major trends in the civilian sector are shaping Chinese security developments. General Michael V. Hayden (Ret.) will provide concluding remarks on “China and the Cyber Challenge.”

DVDs of the conference will be available for purchase at a later date.

Click here to see the conference agenda

Follow The Jamestown Foundation on Twitter and use hashtag #ChinaDefense2013

Upcoming Event: Georgia: Political Power Transfer and Its International Implications

On Friday The Jamestown Foundation and the SAIS Central Asia–Caucasus Institute are co-hosting a panel discussionentitled “Georgia: Political Power Transfer and Its International Implications”on Friday, March 1 at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. The panel will discuss issues such as whether Georgia is experiencing a rotation of government, or regime change? Have the recent elections

advanced or retarded institution-building and Western influence in Georgia? What lessons can be drawn for U.S. policy?

The panel of experts from the United States and Europe will include Vladimir Socor, Senior Fellow at the Jamestown Foundation, Svante E. Cornell, Director of the SAIS Central Asia–Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program Joint Center, as well as Damon Wilson, Executive Vice President at the Atlantic Council.

To see the agenda and panelists’ profiles, please click here.

To attend this free event, please visit our registration page here.

Chinese Anti-Ship Ballistic Missile (ASBM) Development: Drivers, Trajectories and Strategic Implications

In a forthcoming report, China Brief analyst Andrew S. Erickson analyzes the development of China’s anti-ship ballistic missile (ASBM), the DF-21D, which has reached the equivalent of Initial Operational Capability. Although it probably has been deployed in small numbers, additional challenges and tests remain. This study examines the ASBM’s capability and history, showing how the DF-21D meets multiple priorities

in Chinese defense modernization and in the national security bureaucracy, as well as its implications for the United States. The ASBM’s physical threat to U.S. Navy ships will be determined by the development of associated systems and organizations,  which currently limit data fusion and coordination in the complex task of identifying a U.S. aircraft carrier in the open

ocean. Still, the ASBM poses a direct threat to the foundations of U.S. power projection in Asia and will undermine the U.S. position, unless efforts to counter its political-military effects are taken.

 
This forthcoming report will be available in March for purchase on our website, on the Purchases page.
Featured Articles
Militant Leadership Monitor – February Issue
 
In the February Issue of Militant Leadership Monitor, Jamestown analyst Aaron Zelin drew up an in-depth profile of Muhammad al-Zawahiri who has become a leader of the Salafi-Jihadi revival in post-Mubarak Egypt. In the article, Zelin discusses al-Zawahiri’s background, rise to prominence and role as a key promoter of global jihad. Zelin explains how al-Zawahiri’s unofficial educational experience likely provided the intellectual and ideological base to project legitimacy and knowlege in the post-Mubarak reconstruction of the Salafi-Jihadi movement in Egypt.
 
To purchase a Militant Leadership Monitor report, click here.
 
To subscribe to Militant Leadership Monitor, click here.
 
 
 
Quarterly Special Report – Pakistan’s Tribal Militants: Profiles from the Pashtun and Baloch Insurgencies
 
In the Quarterly Special Report on Pakistan’s tribal militants, Jamestown analyst Zia Ur Rehman provides a thorough analysis of Dr. Allah Nazar Baloch, a leader of the Balochistan Liberation Front (BLF). The BLF is a key insurgent group that advocates full succession of Balochistan Province from Pakistan. Rehman describes that while Nazar’s armed insurgency is relatively small, it is unique because it has given rise to a new insurgent base. Rehman also explains the political process that supported Nazar’s emergence and the basis for his popularity. Rehman illustrates how Nazar is a new experiment for Pakistan’s counter-insurgency operations in Balochistan and that

Nazar-led insurgents pose a long-term threat to port safety and pipelines.

 
This Special Report includes examination of some of Pakistan’s tribal militant leaders in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) and the North West Frontier Province (NWFP) as well as the tribal insurgency in Pakistan’s south, the Balochistan insurgency, which has important strategic dimensions. Tribal militant groups covered in this report include Tehrik-e-Taliban, the Haqqani Network and the Balochistan Liberation Front. The Special Report does not include profiles of leaders of Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT); profiles of LeT leaders will appear in a separate, future Special Report that will deal with the LeT exclusively.
This Special Report is broken into two parts: the first part covers tribal militant leaders in the FATA and the NWFP, and the second part focuses on the lesser known conflict in Balochistan. The Special Report concludes with an article that includes a few prognostications concerning the future directions of the FATA, NWFP and Baloch insurgencies.
 
To purchase a Quarterly Special Report, click here.
 

To subscribe to Militant Leadership Monitor, which includes Quarterly Special Reports, click here.

Media Appearances
Jamestown’s Emrullah Uslu was quoted by International Business Times in an article about PKK co-founder Abdullah Ocalan.
 
Jacob Zenn was interviewed about recent kidnappings in northern Nigeria by CTV News in Toronto for its AM Express Program.
 
An article by Jamestown’s analyst Ian Storey, “China and Vietnam’s Tug of War Over Laos,” was cited by Asian Correspondent in an article entitled “Little, landlocked Laos: Pawn or pivot in Asia’s future?
 
Jamestown analyst Nick Heras was recently interviewed for an article on how Syrian armed opposition groups build social capital by providing public services. It was published in The National (UAE) and is entitled “Al Qaeda-linked Militants Win Hearts By Providing Food.”
 
Jamestown analyst Chris Zambelis was quoted by WND in an article entitled “Egypt Inching Closer to Iran.”
 
 
Jamestown’s Aaron Zelin was quoted by The National in an article entitled “Syria’s Al Qaeda-linked militants win hearts by providing food.”
 
Jamestown’s Nick Heras’ article on Lebanon’s offshore energy fields was extensively quoted in a January 25 UPI article titled “Lebanon’s feuds ‘could spark gas conflict‘”.
 
Jamestown’s Chris Zambelis was interviewed by Latitude News on the role of social media in the Syrian uprising.
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