January 2014 Newsletter

On Tuesday, March 25 The Jamestown Foundation will host the Fourth Annual China Defense and Security Conference at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington, D.C. The event will feature Jamestown Board Member, Admiral Timothy J. Keating as well as experts on Chinese foreign relations and strategy, maritime territorial disputes, and Chinese military reform and reorganization. 

More information and registration details are coming soon!

Many people in Russia and the West are now ready to declare the Sochi Olympiad a success if there are no terrorist actions: a lowering of the bar of expectations and an approach that ignores the ways in which the Sochi Games are changing the region, the Russian Federation and East-West relations. 

First, the Sochi Games have energized the Circassian national movement in ways that almost nothing else could. They have strengthened the ties of the diaspora and those who live in the homeland, they have reinforced the view in both places that a united and independent Circassia is not only necessary but entirely possible and within a remarkably short time. The Games have also attracted attention to and raised expectations among other peoples in the North Caucasus. Russian President Vladimir Putin is likely to deploy massive force to try to put these genies back in the bottle, but as is often the case, this Russian effort is likely to resemble throwing water at a grease fire: it will only spread resistance to Moscow’s rule. 

Second, the Kremlin’s enormous spending on the games and the massive corruption there has sparked a discussion across the Russian Federation about what Moscow is not spending money on: the lives and welfare of the Russian people. At every stop along the Olympic torch route, people have asked why so much money should be wasted on Sochi when their basic needs are going unmet. If the Russian opposition can tap into such attitudes, it will gain support and be able to change the course of political rhetoric. Again, Putin will resist, but this genie too is out of the bottle. 

And third, all the attention to the corruption, violation of human rights, and suppression of other basic freedoms in and around Sochi in advance of the games has undermined what Washington called “the reset” and reminded Europeans and Americans that Russia, at least under Putin, has changed less than many had hoped and assumed. Relations between the West and Moscow over critical issues like Ukraine are now going to be approached with more caution and less enthusiasm. That is not a new cold war as the proponents of U.S.-Russian partnership in both Russia and the West say; it is simply a return to a more realistic assessment of what Russia is about.

Consequently, even if the Olympics go off without a hitch – something that is unlikely although all people of good will hope that there will not be any violence – the Sochi Olympiad has given Putin a black eye rather than the boost he hoped for. And more to the point, it has put in play larger forces that may already justify calling the years ahead “the post-Sochi period.”

In this Militant Leadership Monitor Quarterly Special Report (QSR) on the conflict in South Sudan, we focus on the civil wars, border disputes and rivalries between ethnic groups that have resulted in over half a century of violence in the country. The QSR begins with an overview by Andrew McGregor of South Sudan’s turbulent history, leading up to and following the country’s independence from Sudan. He highlights political and ethnic conflicts that maintain instability in South Sudan, as well as the lack of effort to diversify the nation’s economy, which remains dependent on oil for 98 percent of government revenue.

The following articles examine the themes raised in the introduction and are arranged in order of publication. The QSR also includes profiles of South Sudan President Salva Kiir Mayardit, General Gabriel Tang, Colonel Gatluak Gai and David Yau Yau. The QSR concludes with a timeline, which highlights various political and tribal conflicts that have taken place in South Sudan.

Click here to purchase this report

To learn more about al-Shabaab, check out the QSR where we focus on the various militants who are guiding the al-Qaeda-aligned militant organization that aims to imose Shari’a in Somalia.

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