Executive Summary: The People’s Republic of China (PRC) has cultivated close ties with Brazil, which it sees as a prime candidate to co-lead the Global South in an emerging multipolar world. Beijing is now the top trading partner for the South American continent, including with... MORE

Executive Summary: Elite privilege and lack of transparent checks and balances mean that corruption scandals are a feature of the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) system of governance. As Beijing seeks to manage rising public discontent and technocratic continuity, it faces a delicate balancing act between... MORE

Executive Summary: The People’s Liberation Army increasingly emphasizes blockade scenarios in its exercises and drills, signaling a strategic shift in Beijing’s approach to a military contingency in the Taiwan Strait. Policy elites and current and former military officials corroborate this shift but largely project any... MORE

Executive Summary: The relative absence of supreme leader Xi Jinping in authoritative media could indicate that his power, though still unassailable, is waning. There were no references to Xi or his eponymous ideology in coverage of crucial trade talks with the United States, the announcement... MORE

Executive Summary: The Party has updated plans to build the Greater Bay Area into a key growth driver, emphasizing attracting foreign investment and overseas talent. The measures from Beijing seek to make it easier for funds and elite global experts to move between the jurisdictions... MORE

Executive Summary: New regulations that seek to build an integrated national system for sharing government affairs data are intended to boost the Party’s dual priorities of boosting innovation and safeguarding security. The regulations aim to resolve issues and inefficiencies caused by data silos and government... MORE

Executive Summary: In the wake of U.S.–China trade talks in Geneva, Beijing launched a sequenced campaign across Europe—first signaling partnership, then reinforcing its trade credentials through multilateral forums, and finally engaging in targeted bilateral diplomacy. The aim was to present the People's Republic of China... MORE

Executive Summary: Hongmen associations, with historical roots in Qing-era secret societies, have become entangled in Chinese Communist Party (CCP) united front efforts abroad, particularly through patriotic messaging promoting unification with Taiwan. Their mythologized origins and rituals make them nearly indistinguishable from criminal triad societies. Criminal... MORE

Executive Summary: Chinese experts see potential in the ability of cyberattacks enabled by artificial intelligence (AI) to disrupt nuclear infrastructure and increase the pressure to use nuclear weapons in a crisis. The development of early warning capabilities toward a launch-on-warning posture increases Beijing’s impetus to... MORE

Executive Summary: Taiwan’s President Lai Ching-te has jettisoned a Tsai Ing-wen era formula designed to keep peace between factions within the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and has actively advanced his own New Tide faction. Lai’s more control-oriented approach has given the president increased leverage over... MORE