Executive Summary: Many so-called “Global South” countries feel it is time to do away with what they regard as the double standards of rich countries and are open to alternatives. However, Beijing’s offer comes with a catch: it involves exporting the controlling logic of its... MORE

Executive Summary: Xi Jinping faces challenges to his authority from four main groups: retired party elders such as Li Ruihuan and Wen Jiabao; princelings, especially those based overseas; military leaders, such as Zhang Youxia; and parts of the middle and entrepreneurial classes who are voicing... MORE

Executive Summary: The size and scope of the Central Military Commission (CMC) has reduced dramatically since 2004, and the makeup of the military leadership is expected to change completely by the end of the decade. It is not clear what impact this turnover will have... MORE

Executive Summary: In 2024, the number of days and sorties involving Chinese military aircraft crossing the Taiwan Strait median line reached a peak, but the total sorties of Chinese aircraft around Taiwan and the number of peak incursion periods were not significantly higher than in... MORE

Executive Summary: Xi Jinping’s New Year’s speech hinted at weaknesses in the People’s Republic of China. The speech emphasized the many hardships that people are currently facing at home while acknowledging fears about a turbulent external environment. Xi did not mention “national rejuvenation” and he... MORE

Executive Summary: People’s Liberation Army (PLA) naval training drills near Taiwan and surrounding the First Island Chain on December 9–11 did not constitute a full-scale joint exercise but sent a signal to the incoming US administration. Beijing’s power projection demonstration, involving 60 vessels, signals to... MORE

Executive Summary: Beijing promotes digital sovereignty in its engagements with other countries but with the caveat that it can maintain access to partner countries’ digital systems. Leaked documents from cyber contracting firm iS00N indicate a focus on One Belt One Road partner countries, targeting critical... MORE

Executive Summary: Civilian drones launched from the People’s Republic of China (PRC) have repeatedly violated the Republic of China's (ROC) airspace over the outlying islands of Kinmen and Matsu, which serves as part of a gray zone campaign to discredit the self-governing democracy's ability and... MORE

Executive Summary: This year’s second joint aerial patrol between the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and Russia marked the debut of the nuclear-capable H-6N bomber, demonstrating Beijing’s intent to project nuclear deterrence and challenge Western strategic dominance. The two countries have expanded security cooperation this... MORE

Executive Summary: The People’s Republic of China (PRC) has set up a number of offshore innovation bases to acquire technologies in support of its ambitions for technological dominance and national rejuvenation. “Offshore innovation bases” in the PRC, mostly located in special high-tech development zones, collaborate... MORE