China Brief Notes

Xi Establishes ‘Strategic Endurance’ Priorities for the PRC’s Next Five-Year Plan

Executive Summary: Xi Jinping’s April 30 remarks preview a fundamental shift in the Party’s upcoming 15th Five-Year Plan (2026–2030), signaling that national security—not growth—is now the central organizing principle of economic planning. A new “security pattern” will be directly integrated with the “development pattern,” embedding... MORE

Taiwan Focuses on Societal Resilience and U.S. Cooperation in New Defense Review

Executive Summary: Taiwan's 2025 Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR) prioritizes enhancing all-of-society resilience and emphasizes U.S.-Taiwan military cooperation. The document represents a significant improvement over its predecessor in content and clarity but suffers from being a document without consensus: Published by the Ministry of National Defense,... MORE

Rules for Thee, but Not for Me

Executive Summary: Beijing’s diplomatic rhetoric advocates upholding international rules and norms, but this diverges sharply from both its words to party officials at home and its actions abroad that undermine and violate international laws and institutions. Beijing benefits from an international order in which other... MORE

Island Hopping: the PRC’s Quest for Strategic Maritime Influence and Resource Security through the Cook Islands Partnership

Executive Summary: The People’s Republic of China (PRC) and the Cook Islands signed two agreements in February that extend Beijing’s engagement in the South Pacific to include deep-sea exploration and dual-use maritime infrastructure. Beijing seeks to overcome U.S.-imposed containment in the Pacific. The Cook Islands... MORE

Predicting the Next ‘DeepSeek Event’: Early Indicators of Capability Within the PRC’s AI Ecosystem

Executive Summary: Predicting artificial intelligence (AI) firm DeepSeek’s recent successes within a highly competitive AI ecosystem may have been possible by observing factors such as government recognition, proximity to top-tier national research institutions, and a complex network of corporate affiliates with proven technology expertise. Indicators... MORE