Executive Summary: Asif Adnan, son of a High Court judge and former musician, became radicalized after the 2013 Shapla Square movement and was arrested in 2014 for ties to Ansarullah Bangla Team and al-Qaeda networks, though quickly released on bail. Since then, he has reinvented... MORE

Executive Summary: Abdullah Öcalan, leader of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), has urged his organization to disarm and pursue a negotiated settlement with Türkiye. His role and personal status remain central sticking points. The “terror-free initiative,” promoted by Devlet Bahçeli and President Erdoğan—both longtime PKK... MORE

Executive Summary: The arrest of Mali’s General Abass Dembélé appears to be part of a purge of the nation’s civil and military leadership by General Assimi Goïta, who took power in a 2021 coup d’état. Dembélé has been an unusually competent commander and a key... MORE

Executive Summary: Ayaba Cho Lucas, head of the Ambazonia Governing Council (AGovC), has led Cameroon’s nine-year anglophone separatist insurgency from exile in Europe. Advocating “eye for an eye” violence, Ayaba helped form the Ambazonian Defense Force (ADF), which, though lightly armed, has carried out kidnappings,... MORE

Executive Summary: In July 2025, heavy communal violence in Suwayda between Druze and Bedouin tribes escalated into open battles with Syrian government forces, leaving hundreds dead. The clashes marked the most serious confrontation yet between Druze fighters and the new regime under President Ahmed al-Sharaa.... MORE

Executive Summary: Sa'ad bin Atef al-Awlaki was recently named head of al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP). An effective leader, al-Awlaki is expected to further entrench al-Qaeda in Yemen, while also positioning himself and AQAP as especially important contenders for leading affiliates within al-Qaeda. Little... MORE

Executive Summary: Mazloum Abdi is the commander-in-chief of the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces and a major player in Syria’s new political environment. Abdi is expected to continue to use his support among the country’s Kurdish population and close relationship with the United States as leverage... MORE

Executive Summary: Saw Chit Thu is a warlord active in Karen State in southeastern Myanmar. Thu’s Karen Border Guard Force controls a stretch of the Thai–Myanmar border. Once an ally of the ruling junta, Thu appears to have switched sides after witnessing the rebels’ military... MORE

Executive Summary: Thadiyantavide Nazeer is a key Islamic extremist associated with the Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) in Pakistan and India’s homegrown jihadist group, Indian Mujahedeen (IM), and has been under arrest since 2013. Nazeer has managed to use his time in prison to radicalize others and was... MORE

Executive Summary: Captain Rahman Gul, the Baloch Liberation Army’s second-in-command, is thought to be behind the group’s turn toward sophisticated suicide attacks in recent years. A poet and former member of Pakistan’s security forces, Rahman Gul provides his group with both military training and effective... MORE