Executive Summary Ethiopia and Somaliland signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) granting Ethiopia access to build a naval base on Somaliland's coast. This was offered in exchange for Ethiopia recognizing Somaliland as an independent state, drawing condemnation from al-Shabaab. Al-Shabaab has failed to establish itself... MORE

Executive Summary The Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) released the 8th video in their "Battles Are Accelerated" series showcasing attacks on Pakistani security forces throughout 2023, meant to portray the TTP as a formidable force and the Pakistani military as weak. Infographics at the end of the... MORE

Executive Summary Egianus Kogoya, a West Papua National Liberation Army (TPNPB) commander, is holding a New Zealand pilot hostage and threatening to execute him unless West Papua wins its independence, though the movement’s leadership has disagreed with this hardline stance. Over the course of two... MORE

Executive Summary The Mozambican army has declared the Islamic State affiliate active in its country effectively "defeated," with only 200 to 250 active fighters remaining. While Islamic State in Mozambique may be significantly degraded, it could capitalize upon the planned withdrawal of the Southern African... MORE

Executive Summary While Boko Haram is the most widely known security threat in Nigeria, the total number of deaths connected to violent banditry in northwestern Nigeria now rivals those caused by Boko Haram at its violent "peak" in 2015. Banditry is traditionally thought of as... MORE

Executive Summary Following a week of hostility after tit-for-tat missile and air strikes, Iran and Pakistan have deescalated tensions and normalized relations, though Jaish al-Adl—the proximate cause for the recent crisis—remains an active threat to regional stability. Jaish al-Adl is an anti-Shia Islamist militant group... MORE

Executive Summary Nearly all of Gaza's 2.2 million people have been displaced by the current conflict, with Israel potentially considering “voluntary” resettlement plans for the Gazan population. Various Israeli officials have proposed several such plans for the removal of Gazans to other nations like the... MORE

Executive Summary The official reactions of key militant factions based in Pakistan and Afghanistan to the “al-Aqsa Storm” attack by Hamas on Israel on October 7, 2023 reflected an interesting array of agendas and priorities. Al-Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS) issued an immediate response... MORE

Executive Summary Boko Haram and its ISWAP faction have been locked in a stalemate with the Nigerian military. The group may only seek to preserve the status quo rather than risk provoking a major army offensive. The stalemate has persisted since 2014. ISWAP briefly expanded... MORE

Executive Summary Indonesia's general election is scheduled for February 14, 2024. 59 militants were arrested on October 31, 2023 for planning to disrupt said elections, including 19 members of Jemaa Islamiya (JI), which was previously believed to have been dormant. 40 suspects from the Jamaah... MORE