Brief: Togo Resurfaces as Conflict Zone After JNIM Overruns Border Military Base

Executive Summary:

• Group for Supporters of Islam and Muslims (JNIM) took over Kpekakandi Base in northern Togo on July 20. This represents an expansion of the group’s operational focus in the area toward Togo, moving beyond their primary zone of activity along Burkina Faso’s border with Niger and Mali.
• JNIM may also be working to establish a nexus with Ansaru, a Nigerian al-Qaeda-affiliated group. Expanding operations further into Togo and Benin could help to form a bridge between the two.

Of all countries in Africa facing threats from al-Qaeda and Islamic State-aligned jihadist groups, Burkina Faso is among those most in danger of being enveloped. The country’s capital, Ouagadougou, is nearly surrounded by Group for Supporters of Islam and Muslims (JNIM), and both JNIM and Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS) regularly threaten the country’s control over its borderlands near Niger and Mali. While JNIM and ISGS have conducted operations and infiltrated through Burkina Faso’s southern borders with Togo and Benin, these incidents have not been of the same scale. However, a July 20 attack by JNIM along the Togolese side of the Burkina Faso–Togo border could mark a shift toward more attacks in Togo (Jeune Afrique, July 22).

Images of JNIM’s takeover of Kpekakandi Base in northern Togo suggested a Togolese army caught unprepared and forced to flee. As a result, numerous weapons and armored vehicles fell into JNIM’s hands (X/@clashreport, July 24). JNIM also claimed that six Togolese soldiers were killed, and photos of the aftermath of the attack released by JNIM showed dozens of captured rifles and loads of ammunition (X/@SaladinAlDronni, July 20). As a result of the attack, JNIM’s cells in Togo will now have more firepower to continue launching attacks in the country and expanding the group’s influence in littoral West Africa.

Just over one year prior to this attack, in February 2023, militants who were believed to be JNIM conducted another attack in Kpendjal, northern Togo, killing 31 civilians. However, the attackers were intercepted, and the Togolese armed forces claimed to have neutralized them (Jeune Afrique, February 13, 2023). Between this attack and a similar incident which occurred in the same area in November 2022—resulting in the death of 17 Togolese soldiers—JNIM’s attack tempo has clearly been on the rise (X/@MENASTREAM, November 24, 2022).

In the context of these operations in Togo and several similar incidents in Benin since 2022, the most recent attack in Togo was not necessarily surprising (Le Monde, July 20, 2023). More concerning are reports that JNIM linked up with other jihadists in northwestern Nigeria, most likely the al-Qaeda-affiliated Nigerian group, Ansaru (AP News, June 19). If this were the case, the intersection of Togo and Benin could represent a natural crossroad for the two jihadist groups. In this context, the latest attack in Togo might have consequences beyond Togolese security, reflecting shifts in the evolution and expansion of jihadist activities and networks in West Africa more broadly.