Bulgaria Continues to Experience Chronic Political Disarray

Executive Summary:

• In Bulgaria, the seventh round of parliamentary elections in three years is projected to produce a heavily fragmented parliament again and a slim prospect of forming a government for a full mandate.
• Russian propaganda has specifically targeted pro-Western political parties in Bulgaria while boosting the chances of the main pro-Russia Revival party to come second in the upcoming election.
• Widespread allegations about a vote-buying scheme conducted by US-sanctioned oligarch Delyan Peevski could taint Bulgaria’s electoral process. Vote-buying would secure Peevski enough seats in parliament to play the king-maker role in a future governing coalition.

On October 27, Bulgaria will hold another round of parliamentary elections, the seventh in three years. This time around, widespread allegations about vote-buying could degrade the country’s electoral process, which has been assessed as generally free and fair since the fall of communism. Most of the reported instances of vote-buying point to Movement for Rights and Freedoms-New Beginning (DPS-New Beginning) electoral coalition controlled by Deyan Peevski, a Bulgarian oligarch sanctioned under the US Magnitsky Act for corruption (Dnevnik.bg, October 20). Peevski’s close political and economic partnership with former Prime Minister Boyko Borisov, the head of the leading political party, Citizens for European Development of Bulgaria (GERB), could secure him a prominent position in parliament and a place in the future governing coalition.

Public opinion surveys conducted by Gallup International show that 62 percent of Bulgarians do not expect the election to be free and fair (BNT, October 18). Ten percent of respondents openly admit they would vote for a particular party or candidate for cash, for other incentives, or under coercion, which would amount to half a million voters at 75 percent turnout (Central Electoral Commission, June 9; Gallup International, October 14). These polls show that the new parliament will likely be just as disjointed as its predecessors in recent years.

No election since the beginning of 2021 in Bulgaria has resulted in any single party able to form a stable government. Only two regular cabinets have emerged amid the chronic political disarray, the first lasting for seven months following the elections on November 14, 2021 and the second one governing for nine months after the vote on April 2, 2023 (BTA, August 24). Both lost the support of coalition partners when taking steps to reform the judiciary, tackle corruption, and eliminate energy dependence on Russia. For the rest of the period, Bulgaria was governed by caretaker governments appointed by President Rumen Radev, thus turning him into an unusually strong political figure in a parliamentary democracy where the president haslimited powers. Radev is known for his pro-Russia stance, publicly stating at one point that Crimea was Russian and consistently opposing military aid to Ukraine (Balkan Insight, November 19, 2021; Euronews, November 4, 2022).

Russian propaganda has flourished in this conducive environment, and Moscow’s efforts to subvert Bulgaria’s political system and society have drastically intensified (BNR.bg, February 24). Media experts have identified at least 400 websites, operated mainly by bots, which disseminate articles from the Russian press and Moscow’s official narratives on its war against Ukraine (HSS Foundation, October 2023). Many of the pseudo-news sites spreading Russian propaganda are linked to the Blitz Agency, formerly owned and allegedly still controlled by Peevski. The same sites have now started promoting Peevski as a budding Euro-Atlanticist in an attempt to clear his image and legitimize his position as the official kingmaker in Bulgarian politics (HSS Foundation, October 2023; BNR.bg, February 24).

Moscow’s information operations have specifically targeted and rigorously tried to discredit the pro-Western coalition, We Continue the Change-Democratic Bulgaria (PP-DB), led by former Prime Minister Kiril Petkov (December 2021–August 2022). His government was instrumental in freeing Bulgaria from Russian energy dependence, sending a massive amount of ammunition to the Ukrainian army, and expelling 70 Russian diplomats from Sofia for espionage from Bulgaria (DW, April 27, 2022; Dnevnik.bg, June 28, 2022; Offnews.bg, August 14, 2023).

Simultaneously, pervasive Russian propaganda has boosted the chances of the main pro-Russia political party in Bulgaria, Vazrazhdane (Revival), to finish third or possibly second among seven parties and coalitions expected to take seats in parliament (Balkan Insight, September 2; Gallup International, October 14). Revival is a far-right, ultra-nationalist and populist political party that insists that Bulgaria lift sanctions against Russia, stop helping Ukraine, and hold a referendum on its membership in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) (Bgonair.com, September 11).

According to the latest polls, the coalition of GERB and the Union of Democratic Forces (SDS) of former Prime Minister Boyko Borisov is leading at 25.7 percent of the votes, followed by PP-DB with 16.6 percent, and Revival with 15.4 percent. The Bulgarian Socialist Party, a governing party in the past, continues losing votes and will likely only receive 7.1 percent, while There Is Such People (ITN), which won elections in 2021, will likely gain 6.3 percent of the votes (Gallup International, October 14).

For the first time since the fall of Communism, the Movement for Rights and Freedoms (DPS), traditionally representing the Turkish and Muslim minorities in Bulgaria, has split into two separate parties, both of which are likely to pass the four percent threshold. The Alliance for Rights and Freedoms, chaired by Ahmed Dogan, the founder and long-time DPS leader, is likely to gain 8.3 percent of the vote. The DPS-New Beginning coalition, led by Peevski, is polling at 6.9 percent (Manager.bg, September 26; Gallup International, October 14).

In a battle to win more votes than Dogan and earn an influential position in the future parliament, Peevski has unleashed a vote-buying scheme on a scale, the proportions of which have not been seen in Bulgaria before (Dnevnik.bg, October 20). The counter-disinformation group BG Elves has released the names of over 200 people buying votes on behalf of DPS-New Beginning (Offnews.bg, October 21). The police has reported conducting 193 operations and arresting 37 individuals in connection with electoral law violations, most of them for vote-buying (Faktor.bg, October 21).

Peevski’s political fortunes took a dive after the United States sanctioned him in June 2021, but he managed to recover by operating his businesses through proxies and using his influence over GERB’s Boyko Borisov, who is also criticized for corruption (US Treasury Department, June 2, 2021; Bivol.bg, June 18, 2021; Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, August 12). He has expanded control over the judicial system, the prosecutor’s office, the Ministry of the Interior, and most state regulators, according to Ivaylo Mirchev of PP-DA (Darik.bg, October 12). Bulgarian political scientist Ognyan Minchev says that  Peevski has become one of the key figures in Bulgarian political life and may even fight to become a prime minister in a potential coalition cabinet with GERB (Darik.bg, October 19).

The current vote-buying scandal, however, may have undesired consequences for Peevski as well as his business proxies, and his enabling political partners. Although the US administration has not sanctioned them for corruption until now, their turn could be coming. As Sofia has failed to stop Peevski’s corruption, sanctions under the Magnitsky Act could also be imposed on his business and political allies, especially since this time the case also involves electoral fraud.