China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan Railway Emerges as Competitor to Kazakhstan’s Rail Network

Executive Summary:

• Kazakhstan launched a new container rail service linking the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and Poland, reinforcing its position as a vital transit hub through Eurasia.
• The China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan (CKU) railway, a part of the PRC’s “One Belt, One Road” initiative, has emerged as a competitor to routes through Kazakhstan as a more direct path to Europe.
• Kazakhstan is investing heavily in rail infrastructure, particularly along the Middle Corridor, to enhance cargo capacity and reduce delivery times between the PRC and Europe.

On March 3, a new container rail service linking the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and Poland was launched in Kazakhstan. This service is a collaboration between Kazakh transportation service KTZ Express and China Railway Container Transport. The route will start in the PRC and pass through Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Iran, and Türkiye, then enter Europe, ending in Poland. The route will ensure uninterrupted cargo delivery between these countries and improve international logistics (The Astana Times, March 4). By launching such a project, Kazakhstan is asserting its role as a key transit hub in the wake of the $8 billion China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan (CKU) railway launched in December 2024 (see EDM, May 7, July 17, 2024; Global Times, December 27, 2024). The CKU railway is emerging as a competitor to Kazakhstan’s rail infrastructure for the transportation of goods between the PRC and Europe. Currently, rail traffic to and from the PRC must transit through Kazakhstan, as it is the only Central Asian country connected to the PRC by rail. With the completion of the CKU railway, Kyrgyzstan will have a direct railway connection to the PRC, and Uzbekistan will have the option of traveling to the PRC via Kyrgyzstan or Kazakhstan by rail (Eurasianet, January 7).

In December 2024, a launching ceremony was held in the border city of Jalal-Abad, Kyrgyzstan, to mark the commencement of the CKU railway project. The CKU railway, a part of the PRC’s “One Belt, One Road” initiative, aims to provide a faster and more cost-effective alternative to the existing routes connecting the PRC to Europe, which traverse Kazakhstan and Russia. Starting from Kashi in the PRC’s Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, the CKU railway line will pass through the Torugart Pass into Kyrgyzstan and then through Jalal-Abad, ending in the city of Andijan in Uzbekistan (Global Times, December 27, 2024).

The CKU railway, originally conceived in the 1990s, has faced delays due to financial, technical, and geopolitical reasons (see EDM, May 30, 2012, November 3, 2015, November 11, 2021, May 7, 2024). While Kazakhstan already has a developed railway network passing through flatlands with no tunnels and fewer bridges, approximately 80 percent of the CKU route transits through mountains and requires bridges and tunnels. This significantly increases the project’s cost. According to Marat Shibutov, a member of the National Council of Public Trust under the President of the Republic of Kazakhstan, “the cost of the line will be in the range of $10 to 12 billion” due to “construction in the mountains” (Rail Freight, July 16, 2024). This includes the construction of 120 kilometers (approximately 75 miles) of tunnels and 26 kilometers (approximately 16 miles) of bridges. Moreover, at the halfway point of the rail project, the trains will need to switch to the PRC’s standard railway gauge from the 1,520 millimeter broad gauge (Rail Freight, July 16, 2024).

Kazakhstan contains routes in the Central Eurasian Corridor, Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR, also known as the “Middle Corridor”), Transport Corridor Europe-Caucasus-Asia (TRACECA), and the International North-South Transit Corridor (INSTC) (Eurasian Development Bank, June 27, 2024). Several rail projects are currently underway as part of these routes in Kazakhstan. For example, the construction of the 836-kilometer-long (519 miles) Dostyk-Mointy railway line, 153-kilometer-long (95 miles) Darbaza-Maktaaral railway line, 104-kilometer-long (65 miles) Zhetygen-Kazbek Bi railway line, and the 270-kilometer-long (167 miles) Bakhty-Ayakoz railway line is underway. These rail projects are bound to significantly increase Kazakhstan’s transit cargo capacity and reduce transit cargo delivery time (Eurasia Review, June 29, 2024).

Kazakhstan plans to refurbish almost 7,000 miles of old railways and construct more than 3,000 miles of new railway lines to increase trade volumes through the TITR (Eurasianet, January 7). The TITR spans 4,250 kilometers (2,640 miles) by rail, reducing travel distance through the region by 2,000 kilometers (1,243 miles). It provides a speedy and cost-effective option for trade between the PRC and Europe. With a key focus on the TITR trade route, the Kazakh Transport Ministry announced that Kazakhstan is set to complete its ambitious railway expansion project in 2025 (Kazakh Transport Ministry, January 9).

The development of the TITR is a crucial aspect in Kazakhstan’s efforts to become a key Eurasian transit hub (see EDM, January 28). The TITR will provide trade connectivity between Europe and Asia, increasing the annual handling capacity to 10 million tons of cargo. Last year, Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, during the 36th plenary meeting of the Foreign Investors’ Council in Astana, said, “Kazakhstan attaches priority significance to investments in the infrastructure of the Middle Corridor, including construction of new cargo terminals and production of joint transport ships. Comprehensive reconstruction of the country’s road network is vital for our development. Around 12,000 kilometers [7,456 miles] of road have been constructed and repaired this year alone” (Kazinform News Agency, October 31, 2024). This year, the Kazakh Transport Ministry plans to purchase 225 new carriages and upgrade the Dostyk-Monty railway line to enhance the railways’ capacity fivefold (Kazakh Transport Ministry, January 9; Caspian News, January 10).

The completion of the CKU rail corridor could trigger competition in the region, raising concern among business and official circles in Kazakhstan. Kazakhstan has been earning revenues by providing the PRC with a northern corridor via Russia—the only route that connects the PRC with Europe by rail. With the CKU railway circumventing Kazakhstan, it could cause a loss of revenue for the country. Shibutov, however, believes that the CKU railway would not upset Kazakh businesses, but that it would emerge as a competitor to its rail infrastructure because “it is a single-track line that goes into the mountains, which means a small number of wagons per train” (Rail freight, July 16, 2024). 

Even if the CKU cannot fully replace Kazakhstan’s role as a key transit hub, the competition will lessen the region’s dependence on it to access the PRC. Kazakhstan, however, is unlikely to give up its role as a regional transport hub and will continue to develop its railway infrastructure to maintain its dominance in regional transport.