Georgia Faces Becoming a Pariah State to West

Executive Summary:

• The Georgian parliament inaugurated a new president, Mikheil Kavelashvili, on December 29 despite continuing protests calling for repeat parliamentary elections and the continuation of EU rapprochement.
• Western leaders have imposed sanctions on key Georgian officials, including informal leader and billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili, for undermining democracy. Deteriorating Western relations have caused a sharp decline in foreign investment and halted major economic projects.
• Russia and the People’s Republic of China are exploiting Georgia’s cooling ties with the West to expand economic and soft power influence. Strengthening ties between the countries are raising concerns over Georgia’s geopolitical alignment.

On December 29, Mikheil Kavelashvili was inaugurated as the new president of Georgia. The Georgian Electoral College elected him on December 14 (1tv.ge, December 29, 2024). Kavelashvili is a former footballer who became famous for his anti-Western statements as a member of parliament and is winning sympathies only from Moscow. No Western leaders congratulated him on his presidency, and congratulations came only from countries such as Azerbaijan, Armenia, Belarus, Serbia, Hungary, Türkiye, and the People’s Republic of China (PRC). Notably, in his congratulatory letter to Kavelashvili, PRC leader Xi Jinping highlighted that Georgia and the PRC are continuing their current strategic partnership and “maintain[ing] a positive development momentum … Georgia and China continue to consolidate political mutual trust, achieving fruitful results within the cooperation framework in the ‘One Belt, One Road’ initiative” (Fmprc.gov.cn, January 3). Additionally, no guests, diplomats, or foreign delegations accredited in Georgia were invited to the inauguration, demonstrating the international isolation of the Georgian government due to its authoritarian and pro-Russian course.

The inauguration took place against the backdrop of ongoing mass protests in Georgia that have lasted for nearly a month and a half (see EDM, December 5, 10, 2024). Protesters are tirelessly demanding a repeat of the parliamentary elections and the continuation of Georgia’s rapprochement with the European Union, which Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze suspended on November 28. On December 31, the ministers of the Weimar Triangle countries (France, Germany, and Poland) called on Georgian Dream to consider the possibility of new parliamentary elections (Diplomatie.gouv.fr, December 31, 2024).

Georgia’s previous president, Salome Zourabichvili, has refused to recognize the legitimacy of the newly appointed president and intends to continue her international activities as the legitimate president. On the day of  Kavelashvili’s inauguration, Zourabichvili addressed the anti-government protesters gathered in front of her residence and declared that she would only be leaving the presidential palace but “taking with her the Georgian flag and the legitimacy of the presidency” (Radiotavisupleba.ge, January 1).

On January 5, Zourabichvili stated that President of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe Parliamentary Assembly (OSCE PA) Pia Kauma’s planned visit to Georgia on January 8 was ill-timed and would cause discontent among the Georgian people (1tv.ge, January 6). Latvian Member of the European Parliament Rihards Kols also called such a visit “a disastrous and ill-timed move” (X.com/RihardKols, January 5). Additionally, on January 6, Chair of the U.S. Helsinki Commission Joe Wilson requested that Pia Kauma “reconsider” the planned trip. Wilson stated that he is concerned that the ruling Georgian Dream “would exploit any OSCE PA official engagement with its leaders under present circumstances to legitimize its tenuous grasp on power” (X.com/RepJoeWilson, January 6). Following these statements, Kauma postponed her visit until “a time that the OSCE PA’s engagement would be most effective” (X.com/PiaKauma, January 6).  

Concerns that Georgian Dream would try to use any visit from the West for propaganda purposes and to strengthen its legitimacy became apparent after Secretary General of the Council of Europe Alain Berset visited Georgia in mid-December and met not only with Kobakhidze but also with the country’s informal leader, billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili. The motivation and purpose of this visit remained unclear and caused serious discontent in Georgia, both in society and in opposition circles. Berset later explained that the conversation with Ivanishvili concerned “the broad geopolitical context” (Radiotavisupleba.ge, December 20, 2024). Georgian Dream, however, presented his visit as a confirmation of the Western world’s acceptance of the results of the parliamentary elections in Georgia.

Georgian Dream’s international isolation is also being reinforced by the introduction of sanctions against representatives of the country’s ruling elite. On December 27, the U.S. Treasury Department announced its first sanctions against Ivanishvili (Sanctionssearch.ofac.treas.gov, December 27, 2024). According to U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, the United States introduced sanctions against Ivanishvili on charges of undermining democracy and the Euro-Atlantic future of Georgia in favor of Russia (State.gov, December 27, 2024). On December 19, the United States included the Georgian Minister of Internal Affairs, Vakhtang Gomerlauri, and his deputies in the Global Magnitsky sanctions program (State.gov, December 19, 2024).

In addition to introducing sanctions, individual European countries have begun suspending economic projects in Georgia. Germany has suspended several large infrastructure projects in Georgia worth 237 million euros ($244 million) (X.com/Diplo_Peter, December 23, 2024). The deterioration of relations with Western countries directly affects Georgia’s investment environment. According to official statistics released on December 9, 2024, in the third quarter of 2024, foreign direct investment decreased by 55.2 percent compared to the same period of the previous year (Geostat.ge, December 9, 2024).

The scale of Russia’s economic intervention in Georgia is rapidly growing, and more new Russian businesses are opening their branches in Georgia. In the fall of 2024, the Russian online sales company Wildberries began operating in Georgia (Radiotavisupleba.ge, October 23, 2024). In early January, the Russian restaurant chain Syrovarnya opened in Tbilisi in a hotel owned by Ivanishvili (Netgazeti.ge, January 6). Additionally, Russian diplomats are actively working in Tbilisi. In October 2024, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov publicly admitted, “Our diplomats are working [in Georgia], who, as needed, have the opportunity to discuss current issues, primarily in the areas of trade, tourism, and direct communications between peoples” (RIA Novosti, October 18, 2024). Additionally, Georgia entered the top five most popular tourist destinations for Russians (Mtavari.tv, November 22, 2024).

Russia is actively trying to take advantage of the cooling of relations between Georgia and the West to establish soft power with the encouragement of Georgian Dream. Immediately after the new president’s inauguration, a proposal was made from Moscow for the Russian and Georgian football teams to play each other in 2025. Russian media reported that Anzor Kavazashvili, a former Soviet footballer, addressed this proposal to Kavelashvili and Kakha Kaladze, who is the mayor of Tbilisi, general secretary of Georgian Dream, and a former footballer himself (Gazeta.ru, December 31, 2024). This sporting initiative has a political background, as the proposal states that it is “a peaceful and necessary step to strengthen good-neighborly relations’’ (Mtavari.tv, January 1).

Over the past few weeks, Georgian Dream has adjusted its hostile rhetoric toward the United States. While it previously used the term “global war party” as its invisible enemy, in December 2024, it introduced the term “deep state” into the political lexicon. Georgian Dream continues to follow conspiracy theories, but instead of a global war party, it has now declared the so-called deep state as its primary but invisible enemy, hinting at the United States. Simultaneously, Kobakhidze hopes that U.S. President-elect Donald Trump will still be able to defeat the deep state (Civil.ge, January 8). The leader of the parliamentary majority and the ruling party’s executive secretary, Mamuka Mdinaradze, however, said that Georgia should not place unnecessary hopes on Trump’s presidency (Radiotavisupleba.ge, December 23, 2024). Additionally, Kaladze stated, “Trump will certainly pursue the interests of the American people. He will not be able to do anything [in Georgia]” (Radiotavisupleba.ge, December 24, 2024).

Georgia, a country located at the crossroads of Europe and Asia with a border with Russia and the Middle East, was once considered the main supporter of the West in this region. Under Georgian Dream, however, Georgia is increasingly moving away from the West and, under the pretext of strengthening its sovereignty, is approaching the authoritarian regimes of Russia, Iran, and the PRC.