MOSCOW DISAVOWS ARMENIAN THREAT TO INCORPORATE KARABAKH.

In a June 19 statement, Russia’s Foreign Ministry took firm exception to Armenia’s warning that it could unilaterally recognize Karabakh’s independence and declare unification with it in two to four years’ time, unless Azerbaijan drops its claim to sovereignty over that region. Foreign Minister Vardan Oskanian had issued that warning on June 17, adding that “a unified security space of Armenia and Karabakh” constitutes an essential security requirement. Russian spokesman Vladimir Rakhmanin described that warning as “political blackmail” and as damaging the negotiating process. In Yerevan over the weekend, CIS Executive Secretary Boris Berezovsky publicly, if obliquely, admonished the host government “not to raise the issue of independence of, and unification with, Karabakh.”

In Baku, presidential foreign policy adviser Vafa Guluzade termed Yerevan’s warning a “bluff,” since “Armenia’s allies” [i.e. Russia] and “the international community led by the U.S.” are bound to oppose it. Guluzade and, in a separate statement, the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry welcomed Moscow’s reaction. (Noyan-Tapan, Turan, Itar-Tass, June 18-21).

Itself facing active or potential secessionist movements, Moscow can not afford to be seen as condoning changes of other countries’ borders, particularly in the Caucasus. Moreover, as Armenia’s military ally, Russia is interested in defusing the risk of being drawn into an armed confrontation.

TAJIK POLITICAL DEADLOCK PERSISTS.