Publication: Monitor Volume: 1 Issue: 140

Russia may soon lose its remaining leverage on Croatia, where Russian peacekeepers have sought to shield the Serb conquest of eastern Slavonia. The Dayton agreement that averted war between Croatia and the Serbs calls for a 12-month transitional period in eastern Slavonia, giving the UN Security Council a mandate to establish a "transitional administration" to govern that region. The council also is to authorize an international force to maintain order during this period when the region is to be demilitarized. So far, however, the United States and its negotiating partners have not yet tackled the problem of which authority –NATO, the United Nations, or another organization–would control those troops, and who would be responsible for some key aspects of the civilian administration, including the police. (5)

The United Nations presently has about 1,500 Russian and Belgian peacekeepers in eastern Slavonia. Some UN planners estimate up to 9,000 troops would be necessary to maintain peace there. Croats and even Serbs favor US or NATO peacekeeping troops to join the Russian and Belgian units, but key envoys say that is out of the question. The Croatian ambassador has reminded the Security Council that the troops’ UN mandate expires at the end of the month and that Zagreb will not renew it. Diplomats, however, expect the mandate to be extended provisionally until a substitute is found.

Moscow to Violate Another Arms Control Deadline.