Russian Drones Pose Growing Danger

Executive Summary:

• Russia is increasing the production and use of Shahed-type kamikaze drones against Ukraine, constantly improving their effectiveness and ability to break through air defenses.
• In addition to simpler drones, Moscow is developing and testing more sophisticated unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) featuring artificial intelligence (AI) for auto-targeting and computer vision.
• The Kremlin may transfer weapon technologies and tactics to allies such as the People’s Republic of China or Iran in exchange for resources and weapons.

Over the weekend of May 24, Russia conducted one of its largest air attacks against Ukraine. Russia used a record 653 Shahed-type kamikaze attack drones and their imitations in addition to 78 cruise, ballistic, and aircraft missiles. Ukraine shot down 372 weapons and utilized radar and other forms of electronic warfare to suppress 182 others (Facebook/Air Force Command of Ukrainian Armed Forces, May 25, May 26).

This attack is a clear demonstration of Russia’s ever-growing combat and production capabilities despite the high percentage of drones destroyed. According to Ukrainian intelligence, the Kremlin plans to increase the production of Shaheds, also known as Geran (Geran’, Геран), meaning “Geranium” in English), to 500 per day and launch up to 1,000 per attack (The Economist; Ukrainian National News, May 25; C4ADS, May 29). In April, Andriy Kovalenko, head of the Center for Countering Disinformation at the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine, stated that Russia has increased production and is using swarm tactics, expanding its number of crews and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) (Telegram/@akovalenko1989, April 22). Given their relatively low cost and simple design, Moscow can produce huge numbers of drones. Russia’s large quantity of drones and their constantly changing tactics mean they can break through even a complex echelon air defense system.

It is not only the number of drones that poses a threat to Ukrainian air defense. More and more technological advancements are being incorporated into Russian drones. For example, Moscow is improving the Shahed drone’s warhead. Now, instead of the standard 50-kilogram warhead, two new types of 90-kilogram warheads can be installed. The warheads, which have cumulative fragmentation, high-explosive, and incendiary capabilities, have a combined purpose to increase the damage. One of the warheads is produced in Russia, while the other is produced in Iran, indicating the continuation and deepening of cooperation between the two countries (see EDM, March 6, 2023, February 22, 2024; Defense Express, May 20).

Russia is equipping some of its drones with acoustic devices. The probable purpose is to have an additional psychological impact on the civilian population, similar to the sirens on the German WWII dive bomber Junkers Ju 87, or to change their sound to complicate detection by Ukrainian air defense forces (TSN, April 29; Telegram/@operativnoZSU, May 25).

Russia is also improving the navigation and control systems of its UAVs. In March, Ukraine discovered the first Russian Shaheds that utilize a Controlled Reception Pattern Antenna (CRPA) with 16 elements, instead of the usual 8 or 12. More antenna elements make drone navigation systems more resilient to Ukrainian electronic warfare systems (Telegram/@serhii_flash, March 21). Russia also equipped its drones with trackers that constantly transmit their speed and altitude back to the control center. Drones perform this data transfer through Raspberry Pi-like microcomputers and SIM cards (Facebook/Serhii.Flash, May 26).

These improvements demonstrate that the Russian Federation is still able to obtain critical electronics that it cannot produce on its own. Oleh Ivashchenko, Head of the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine, stated that as of the beginning of 2025, 80 percent of critical electronics for Russian drones originated from the People’s Republic of China (PRC) (Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine, May 25; Ukrinform, May 26). The PRC and Russia attempt to conceal their collaboration by falsifying paperwork and utilizing intermediary companies to exchange the goods and knowledge necessary for microelectronics production (Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine, May 25).

The latest Russian UAV strike prototypes, currently being tested, are fully autonomous drones controlled by Artificial Intelligence (AI) and advanced computer vision algorithms, posing an even greater danger (Telegram/@akovalenko1989, May 16, 18). These Lancet-like loitering munitions could fly up to 100 kilometers, detect, identify, and select targets autonomously. One such drone attacked the city of Odesa on May 23 (Telegram/@zloyodessit; Telegram/@war_home, May 23). The main threat is that these drones do not need radio control, making them hard to detect and impossible to suppress with electronic warfare. In the future, this could also mean the absence of operators, which would risk misuse against civilian targets and raise broader ethical concerns (Defense Express, May 25).

Cooperation between Russia and other countries, such as Iran and the PRC, is raising concerns. Russia is using its war against Ukraine as a testing ground for improving the latest military technologies and tactics. Lessons learned are transferred to Moscow’s allies in exchange for resources, spare parts, and weapons (see China Brief, March 28). Allies can then adopt the models that have been tested and improved in real combat. According to Igal Levin, an Israeli military expert, Iran has announced its use of a new first-person view (FPV) drone, Shaheen-1 FPV, most likely as a result of analyzing the war against Ukraine (Telegram/@yigal_levin, May 22).

Given the ineffectiveness of current sanctions and their limited impact on Iran and the PRC’s collaboration with Russia, the only effective way to combat Russian drones is to destroy production facilities inside Russia. This strategy is why Ukraine again attacked the Shahed production plants in the city of Elabuga, Republic of Tatarstan, on May 25 (Telegram/@akovalenko1989, May 26).

Russia continues to improve its strike UAVs and increase their use against Ukraine despite restrictions from sanctions and Moscow apparently wanting a peaceful end to the war. UAVs are becoming the main striking force due to their relative cheapness and mass production. Moscow receives critical drone components from its allies, primarily Iran and the PRC. In return, the Kremlin shares its experience of using unmanned systems in real combat conditions with its allies. In addition to using more primitive drones, Russia is developing and testing technologically sophisticated UAVs with AI control and computer vision capabilities. Further development of new, more advanced drones will pose a significant threat if Russia can scale up its production.